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Old 01-16-2015, 09:18 AM   #1
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How bad is the economy going to hit the fan

Anyone else notice that 4 significant retailers announced closing there doors in Canada. Oil is down past $50 a barrel and there's no sign that it's coming back up for a bit. Anyone else thinking the economy could take a huge hit in the next few months? I know the talking heads are saying that things are improving, but I wonder if things are about to head two shades the other way. I've always been scared that too many people are now working in the oilfield which basically fuels a lot of the retail industry. I think with oilfield income dropping off we could see massive layoffs in retail, which is where the poorest and lowest skilled Canadians work. That could have some long lasting consequences.

Let's try not to make this thread political. I don't care if you think Harper or the kid can fix or stop things from happening. Leave that for this fall.
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Old 01-16-2015, 09:27 AM   #2
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How bad is the economy going to hit the fan

I think Alberta will go for a complete shit , the national economy won't be as bad but we'll definitely not be seeing a balanced budget or the promised surplus in April

The single focus on oil as the driver of our national and in Alberta's case , provincial fortunes is being exposed by this downturn and should be a lesson for the future that a diversified economy would better weather a storm like this
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Old 01-16-2015, 09:35 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by OZ-T View Post
I think Alberta will go for a complete shit , the national economy won't be as bad but we'll definitely not be seeing a balanced budget or the promised surplus in April

The single focus on oil as the driver of our national and in Alberta's case , provincial fortunes is being exposed by this downturn and should be a lesson for the future that a diversified economy would better weather a storm like this
Agreed. I think with the current attitude towards manufacturing though it's difficult to diversify.

I know most of the people in my generation expect that there should be jobs in the Arts, Design Industry, etc. To be honest they're all getting by because of jobs that are made possible by an economy in overdrive because of oil. I don't know if there's another economic driver that can keep those high income spin off industries going the same way.

I'm lucky, I work in Agriculture where the swings are the norm and the industry tends to be able to adjust. I fear for my friends in comfy desk jobs at companies that reap the income from the pseudo elite the oilfield has created.
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Old 01-16-2015, 09:38 AM   #4
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I don't disagree that oil has recently been the driver in our fortunes as a nation and definitely for Alberta , I'm just saying that I think the federal government has blinders on as far as developing any other sector and has done everything in it's power to promote oil , and now that all the eggs are in one basket , this is the kind of dramatic swing in fortunes that can happen
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Old 01-16-2015, 09:43 AM   #5
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Target was losing money day one in Canada...
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Old 01-16-2015, 09:46 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OZ-T View Post
I don't disagree that oil has recently been the driver in our fortunes as a nation and definitely for Alberta , I'm just saying that I think the federal government has blinders on as far as developing any other sector and has done everything in it's power to promote oil , and now that all the eggs are in one basket , this is the kind of dramatic swing in fortunes that can happen

Over reliance on oil didn't work out too well for Putin!
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Old 01-16-2015, 09:52 AM   #7
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Canada still has other industries that are thriving. There's just not enough of them to support things like universities having several full time entrepreneurial liaison staff (my ex-wifes job). I think the entire developed world has a whole slew of problems coming up that have just been covered up lately by high oil prices and other financial drivers. How can economies get by when they are manufacturing less than 20% of there goods? Bringing manufacturing back isn't an easy thing to do now that companies are addicted to building everything in China.
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Old 01-16-2015, 09:53 AM   #8
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We talked about this at work yesterday. As long as the natural gas prices stay high well be ok.

I cant remember the guys name that wrote about the economy but he said the euro dollar well be the currency the world switches to because itll be the only stable one.
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Old 01-16-2015, 09:59 AM   #9
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Target was losing money day one in Canada...

Target made a big mistake , no doubt
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Old 01-16-2015, 10:03 AM   #10
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Canada still has other industries that are thriving. There's just not enough of them to support things like universities having several full time entrepreneurial liaison staff (my ex-wifes job). I think the entire developed world has a whole slew of problems coming up that have just been covered up lately by high oil prices and other financial drivers. How can economies get by when they are manufacturing less than 20% of there goods? Bringing manufacturing back isn't an easy thing to do now that companies are addicted to building everything in China.

I think maybe you are missing the point I was making , I'm not saying there are no other sectors doing well in Canada , I'm merely pointing out that the sole focus of the federal government for a decade now has been on one sector only .
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Old 01-16-2015, 10:04 AM   #11
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Target made a big mistake , no doubt
They had an analyst on CTV business talking about how Targets plan was doomed to fail. They tried to grow too big, too fast, and set too high an expectation with their target market. That sounds like a failure to plan correctly more than anything else.

Sony and the other outlets closing is concerning because they are bubble outlets. They weren't likely going to last forever, but all of them shutting down at the same time is a sign that things in retail are dropping off.
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Old 01-16-2015, 10:05 AM   #12
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Or you could eliminate the store. Fossil fuels are useless, a farm based economy is the way to go in the future. There were jobs before oil there will be after. No reason to put up with this type of crap, stop electing the same regime one after the other (especially in Alberta), corrupt governments and corporate greed are to blame.
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Old 01-16-2015, 10:05 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by OZ-T View Post
I think maybe you are missing the point I was making , I'm not saying there are no other sectors doing well in Canada , I'm merely pointing out that the sole focus of the federal government for a decade now has been on one sector only .
I agree with that. I meant that towards the American. Sometimes I think all they see up here is oil .
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Old 01-16-2015, 10:07 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by Sterdog View Post
They had an analyst on CTV business talking about how Targets plan was doomed to fail. They tried to grow too big, too fast, and set too high an expectation with their target market. That sounds like a failure to plan correctly more than anything else.



Sony and the other outlets closing is concerning because they are bubble outlets. They weren't likely going to last forever, but all of them shutting down at the same time is a sign that things in retail are dropping off.

Sure , but lets be real , Sony had 14 stores in the entire country
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Old 01-16-2015, 10:07 AM   #15
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Stop complaining about it here and hit the protest lines that operate in almost every city everyday. Keep doing nothing and it will only ever get worse, get involved.
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Old 01-16-2015, 10:08 AM   #16
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Or you could eliminate the store. Fossil fuels are useless, a farm based economy is the way to go in the future. There were jobs before oil there will be after. No reason to put up with this type of crap, stop electing the same regime one after the other (especially in Alberta), corrupt governments and corporate greed are to blame.
I work in Agriculture. Unless we start paying the farms instead of the processors most of the profits there is no way to base our economies off agriculture. There's a ton of farms that are right on the verge of failing if we have a really bad crop year.

I'm really concerned with all of the large integrated cooperate farms that have sprung up in the USA. If that happens here our food supply is screwed.
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Old 01-16-2015, 10:09 AM   #17
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Stop complaining about it here and hit the protest lines that operate in almost every city everyday. Keep doing nothing and it will only ever get worse, get involved.

I don't disagree , however , on this site , if this thread becomes a politcal soap box it will get locked so lets be a bit wary of that if we want to keep it open
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Old 01-16-2015, 10:10 AM   #18
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Stop complaining about it here and hit the protest lines that operate in almost every city everyday. Keep doing nothing and it will only ever get worse, get involved.
Because protesting seems to work . I don't think blaming everything on the government is going to solve the issues. It wasn't just our government that created our reliance on oil. We asked for quick and easy money. The government found the easiest way to give it to us.

I agree with OZ on the political side. Let's leave that off here because once that topic opens this thread will lock within 24 hours.
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Old 01-16-2015, 10:15 AM   #19
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Sure , but lets be real , Sony had 14 stores in the entire country
True. I'm thinking though if things go bad in the next few months we will look back at Sony and the two other chains that closed stores in the same week and look back at this as being the first signs that something is about to go terribly wrong.
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Old 01-16-2015, 10:22 AM   #20
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I agree that our focus (or lack there of) on manufacturing may be a major downfall for us. In my part of Ontario in the late 70's up till about the early 2000's there were manufacturers like Massy, White Farm, Keorhing, etc. Now there is only one major equipment manufacturer and they only build machines for the forestry industry. I am lucky enough to be born and raised in this area and now work as an engineer for that company designing the machines. Toyota also has a couple of assembly plants for the camary and corolla about 20 minute drives from my parents place (where I'm living/paying rent)

Also as a fresh grad (April 2014) who started school at the start of the last recession, I would almost (selfishly) welcome another economic downturn. I might be able to afford my first house downpayment that way. And I can also go bombing around on and offroad with my truck and still be able to fill my tank AND eat week to week, it was getting tight there when we were paying $1.33 a litre.

Edit: Most of the machines we build are sold into the states, and with the weaker Canadian dollar our american sales are booming and we're shipping record number of machines every month. Plus with the cheaper oil prices the contractors who run the machines are making more money, meaning they are more likely to buy new machines, which in turn increases our sales further.
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