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Old 05-18-2012, 05:00 AM   #1
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Facebook IPO

Anyone think this will be a good investment? Some "experts" say it is going to be another dot.com fiasco while other "experts" say it may be a great investment like the early days of Yahoo and Google..
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Old 05-18-2012, 05:25 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coffeesnob View Post
Anyone think this will be a good investment? Some "experts" say it is going to be another dot.com fiasco while other "experts" say it may be a great investment like the early days of Yahoo and Google..
I am no financial expert, but I do manage to keep my head above the water. IMO, people are excited about this IPO just because its Facebook. I think that this is causing it to be overvalued, that the value will increase rapidly immediately after the IPO, and the money will be made by investors who sell in the time before the peak.

Once the downward trend starts, I think stock will be sold in droves. Its now pretty widely known what a bubble is, what happens when it pops, and that its pretty obvious that FB is just that. The chance to make money early and quick will have people that lag behind freaking out when it starts to dip and I expect values to settle well below what it was at IPO.
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Old 05-18-2012, 05:39 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SManZ View Post
I am no financial expert, but I do manage to keep my head above the water. IMO, people are excited about this IPO just because its Facebook. I think that this is causing it to be overvalued, that the value will increase rapidly immediately after the IPO, and the money will be made by investors who sell in the time before the peak.

Once the downward trend starts, I think stock will be sold in droves. Its now pretty widely known what a bubble is, what happens when it pops, and that its pretty obvious that FB is just that. The chance to make money early and quick will have people that lag behind freaking out when it starts to dip and I expect values to settle well below what it was at IPO.
x2, no financial expert but I wouldn't be at all surprised if this happened.
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Old 05-18-2012, 05:44 AM   #4
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Well, since no individuals will be able to get in on the 38.00 IPO until later in the day and that will only be 10% of total stock that people will be clammering for and the price by then, even if you can score, is expected to be at least triple the 38.00, I'd say fuck it and see what happens. That is what I heard on news yesterday anyway.......and here is CNN clip from one of their articles..........

The $38 IPO price is the rate at which Facebook's underwriters (including lead banker Morgan Stanley) will sell shares to their clients, which typically include large institutional investors, mutual funds and hedge funds.

Shares will be released Thursday night to those buyers, who can resell them on the open market beginning on Friday.

Some shares were made available to individual investors, but getting them typically requires either a lot of money or a lot of trading experience. It also required moving fast. Many brokerages offering pieces of Facebook's IPO allotment "closed their books" on Tuesday, meaning they stopped taking orders.


When can I buy? Ordinary investors looking to get a piece of Facebook will have to wait until Friday morning.

Unlike Google (GOOG, Fortune 500), whose IPO used a "Dutch auction" to allow direct bidding by investors, Facebook's setup doesn't give regular folks access until shares begin trading publicly on the tech-heavy Nasdaq exchange.



After that I would expect the initial excitement to dwindle along with prices as has been stated.
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Old 05-18-2012, 06:38 AM   #5
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I heard too that GM has stopped advertising on FB. That has some "experts" alarmed.Wish I had bought lots of apple stock back in the day, at least apple actually sells something according to other "experts" the economy is gonna crash hard at the end of this year maybe the beginning of 2013 who knows we may all be broke...hope not though.
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Old 05-18-2012, 08:44 AM   #6
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ceo mz has full control of facebook with no shareholder proxy (input)

I hit the dislike button
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Old 05-18-2012, 02:10 PM   #7
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Facebook IPO IMO will be a fail, the stock will shoot up from all the "im gonna strike it rich" newbs and will see a steady decline till it bottoms out to what it is really worth.

also zuckerface owns 60% we all know his antics will he actually own up to a board? i wouldn't be surprised if there was already a clause where you can by stock but have no say

also Chevy just pulled there 10 million facebook ad campaign, really does anyone on there ever click on any ads? if you no clicky they will eventually go away, then how will fb generate revenue?

fb has enough legal litigation's already top it off with the IPO que the titanic theme song
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Old 05-18-2012, 02:25 PM   #8
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Three reasons not to buy Facebook

Why buy Facebook at that level when Apple trades for less than 10 times fiscal 2013 earnings estimates .. and has a lot more cash than Facebook? Google is valued at just 12 times 2013 earning estimates. Facebook is valued at over 45 times its earnings.-CNN

However, I still bought a few shares.
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Old 05-18-2012, 04:29 PM   #9
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OP - I'd speculate that you have your answer at this point. A lot of guys got rich today, but they were invested a long time ago. No one who bought today got rich.

Before you believe those talking heads on their hype, which didn't pan out, pay close attn to how this IPO was played. For one, the underwriters had propped up the stock, offering to buy it at 38/shr. That's why it never went under 38 all day today. Monday will be telling because those dudes had to suck it up today and they'll want to unload it. I expect them to sell frequently to divest themselves, as I know they had to get killed on that. Another thing - the lock up period is short - just 90 days - too short IMO. That means that before you know it, there will be another wave of selling to come. I think the signal is that they're not betting on long term, obviously.

On top of that, IMO, FB is on the road to fail. Now they have to answer to shareholders. That means they will be pushing FB Premium subscriptions, more ads and more games. It'll be a big crap fest and well, the next big thing will come along and users will migrate. They also have said that more of their population is moving to smartphones and so far, they cannot easily monetize that medium like they can in the PC. In other words, they have said "we cannot maintain this momentum." And ask yourself this - how many ads do you click on in FB - how many games do you play that you pay for? Personally, I don't go chat w/my friends so I can be hit with ads and I don't play farmville, etc. For search, ads are good if relevant. Google has that locked up fairly well. Otherwise, I dunno. Sounds like a lot of hype, IMO.

No - I am not a holder of FB stock.
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Old 05-30-2012, 04:28 PM   #10
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wow,wonder how low it will go..of course the whole market was down today
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Old 06-09-2012, 10:28 AM   #11
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Facebook is not a buy IMO - I own MCD - KFT - COH - ROST - ABT - DPZ (gonna dump it though!) What are some of the stocks y'all own??
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Old 09-07-2012, 10:21 PM   #12
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You guys seen how much stock has gone down for facebook?
Its all about twitter now!!!
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Old 09-08-2012, 12:43 PM   #13
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Isn't FB under investigation now? I saw it closed below $19. UFB. I'm glad I didn't get sucked into that. I fuckin hate FB btw. I really dont care what ppl I barely know are up to and what their thoughts and feelings are. Nor do I want to see pics of their ugly kids.

Sorry my wife is on it all the time it drives me nuts.
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Old 09-08-2012, 12:54 PM   #14
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All the media hype prior to the FB IPO just reminds me of the "pump and dump" schemes.
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Old 09-08-2012, 01:18 PM   #15
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I got fucked on:

Sysco Foods
AT&T
Rite-Aid
Odetics
and about 8 other companies.
I avoided the "dot coms" and tried to follow sound advice and stick with B&M and "Smokestacks"

It was getting to the point that my broker buddy (multi-mill/year income) was calling me and asking what I had bought recently, because if I bought it, he knew it was a good time to short it.
Funny thing, the few "dot-com" companies that I bought actually did okay. Didn't make a lot, but I also didn't lose my ass.

On rumors of a subsidiary IPO (which would have included a split of the parent company stock into shares of the parent and subsidiary), one of my "smokestacks" went from $5 to a peak at $38 over the course of a week... then the company announced that market conditions were not right for an IPO and they tanked.
My boss was able to get his sell order executed as they were passing through $18. My order didn't execute until the next morning when they were down at $2. Nasdaq delisted them a year later.

Then there was the $10k that I lost on the rumor that Anheuser-Busch was going to buy out Pete's Wicked Ale.


I FINALLY made a good stock call and avoided buying Facebook.
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Old 09-08-2012, 01:29 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LeftyTom View Post
All the media hype prior to the FB IPO just reminds me of the "pump and dump" schemes.
The problem with the whole "dot com boom" and the market in general is online trading.

Used to be, you had to go through your broker, and you had to deal in lots of 100 shares or there was a premium charged.
You were dealing with large amounts, and through a broker who would make recommendations to you, and advise you against a poor call.
Your broker looked at the true value of a company. What's happening with management? What's the history? What direction are they going? How risky are their future plans? What are their projected sales?

Online trading turned the stock certificate itself into a commodity. The supply and demand of the stock set the "value"... and of course, the trading value of the stock times the number of outstanding shares determines the PAPER value of the company.

So you have a small company that employs 4 people with annual sales of $1,000,000 and because it's a "hot stock", the valuation of the company on paper is 5 billion.


The "dot com bust" was inevitable. When the stock prices stagnated because there were no new buyers at the inflated prices, people started to try and take their profits and run.
That began the downward spiral, same as the upward spiral.

The more widespread problem was that unwise financial managers had invested other funds into those companies, so while the "dot com" losses were only on paper, they translated into very real capital losses for brick-and-mortar companies.


My broker buddy? Until the housing crisis and major economic collapse of 2008, he and his clients had no accounts with returns of less than 10%.
Sorry... if you have less than $500k to invest, he won't even talk to you.
If he does agree to consider your account, he will interview you, and if he even gets a feeling that you're going to be calling him every week asking him to "sell this and buy that", he'll decline.
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