Precious Metals New Thread 2.0

And here's what the Wall St. journal has to say:


Why the Dollar’s Weakness May Not Last
History suggests that an improving labor market supports a strengthening dollar

By
BEN EISEN
Mar 4, 2016 12:25 pm ET
0 COMMENTS

The U.S. market has had it good in recent weeks: Data has been largely positive, while the U.S. dollar has remained weaker against its major peers.

That may not last.

The dollar tends to strengthen when the U.S. economic outlook looks good relative to other countries and the Federal Reserve is seen as being able to adopt less accommodative monetary policies. Yet after a sharp rise since mid-2014, the greenback has slipped in recent weeks. It’s down 1.6% so far this year. That comes even as the Fed’s monetary policies move in the opposite direction of its major peers.

A strengthening dollar, while making the cost of overseas goods cheaper for Americans, can hit U.S. exports and hurt corporate earnings.

The Labor Department said Friday that the U.S. created 242,000 jobs in February, more than economists had expected, and the prior two months were revised higher. The one negative data point was that wages slipped 0.1% from the prior month.

The largely positive data initially pushed the WSJ Dollar Index higher, though it’s since slipped lower on the day. The dollar was down 0.6% against the euro while it gained 0.3% against the Japanese yen.

But history suggests that an improving labor market supports a strengthening dollar, according research this week by Alan Ruskin, a macro strategist at Deutsche Bank. He took a look at the so-called misery index, which is calculated by adding the unemployment rate to the inflation rate, and found that misery recently hit its lowest since the 1950s.

The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.9% in the jobs report released Friday. Still, if it keeps falling, the dollar may keep rising, though the dollar tends to lag the unemployment rate by about a year, according to his research.

Ruskin concludes that the unemployment rate, “is still not showing signs of finding a bottom, and is a long way from signaling a USD top.”

In the nearer-term, the dollar could be poised for a boost against the euro if the European Central Bank takes more dovish policy actions than the market expects at its meeting next Thursday. Steve Barrow, head of G10 strategy at Standard Bank, reasons that the central bank may have been disappointed by the market’s reaction to its meeting in December, when the euro strengthened. After being seen as under-delivering last time, the policymakers could skew toward over-delivering this time.

“I think it will be a question of once bit and twice shy for the ECB,” Mr. Barrow said. “Having been a bit short of what the market expected last time, the ECB will probably be a bit long.”

 

Silver Prices are Falling Amid the Stock Market Rally
February 23, 2016 @ 13:04 GMT



Silver prices gained a lot of momentum since the start of this year. Silver’s price moved from $13.86/oz on the 1st of January to $15.76/oz on the 11th February. However, after reaching its highest peak of $15.76/oz, silver prices are declining again. At the end of latest trading session, silver price stood around $15.24/oz.

Silver prices are on the decline as the rally in stock markets and rising oil prices is underway, along with a stronger US dollar. This precious metal has an inverse relationship with the stock markets, economic environment, and oil prices. Over the last week, we have been witnessing a stabilization in oil prices and stock markets, which is negatively impacting silver prices.

In the latest trading session, WTI oil increased by $1.84 or 5.8% to $31.48 per barrel; while Brent crude jumped $1.68, or 5.1% to $34.69. The latest rally in oil prices was the result of a positive outlook from the International Energy Agency. The S&P 500 index increased 1.5% to 1,945.50 points while the Nasdaq index also grew 1.5% to 4,570.61 points at the end of latest trading session.

Despite stabilization in the stock market and oil prices, fundamentals for silver prices are not declining. This precious metal has been seeing a significant cut in supplies due to low prices in the last couple of quarters. This situation has created disequilibrium in supply and demand. For instance, silver production in the United States declined 8%; silver supplies in Canada dropped from 450,594 kilograms to only 351,211 kilograms.

Low supplies compared with demand have supported silver prices in the last two months. We can expect more stabilization in silver prices in the coming days as major miners are still looking to cut their future investments due to the big losses they have generated in 2015.

 

Wow. I didn't mean to start this again @shr133. I was simply stating that it's not like Canada ditched PM's for piles of cash. They ditched them for various other forms of liquid holdings. Whether that's a good or bad idea will be hard to judge for a long time.

Personally I don't agree with any nation holding large stock piles of commodities. It leads to a false market.

 

Steve 2.0

 

Are bars like this worth buying?

 

Nope. Why buy an investment that's already priced at a 20% premium? You'd need silver to rally hard just to break even. I wouldn't touch it.

 

http://www.bgasc.com/product/100-oz...rket-circulated/100-oz-silver-bars-all-brands

 

Thanks. Going to start looking into this.

 

Read. History.

 

I don't by generic PMs...
I recommend silver eagles and Canadian maples, they are the best value, low risk and easy resale for silver....

With coins you pay a premium but you also get the premium back....

If you are going to trade 100 oz at a time those would be ok but you pay less and you get less when you sell and who are you planing on selling a 100oz bar to?
Look at their buy price to see if it makes sense...

 

So PMs are still up and the bottom is defiantly in on gold and silver is close to breaking out.....
It's very obvious the the western fiat currencies are in big trouble....
Honestly I didn't plan for PMs taking off so soon, but I'll take it.........
Hard to imagine bashing PMs during a rally but that's what they do......Buy stocks, stocks ,stocks no matter what......
No you buy undervalued assets......
And when they talk about negative interest rates and cashless society you start to hide your money from the crooks.....
Luckily PMs provide both, they are undervalued and are a safe haven asset...
Anyone saying any different either doesn't know or is trying to trick you back into the system.....
Gold up 19% ytd, silver 12% ytd and they are just starting their bull run....
Dow is still down 7 % from last May and break even in the last 22 months........

 

I understand not believing that the petrol dollar is in trouble but that won't change the facts that it is the oldest standing fiat currency left and at the end of it's life cycle....
Not believing won't change history or the facts....
They say PMs are bad but don't talk about the 19T in debt that will never be paid back or the 300T + in derivatives or the trillions in unfunded liabilities...
They won't talk about how to protect your self from the coming inflation...
Stocks don't fight inflation If your lucky you could break even....

Looks like 2016 will just be the start......
Just remember I had to learn about money, now I can see what's happening, I don't have ESP, I just know history and history always repeats....

 

So you are telling me we are at FULL EMPLOYMENT........

All is good people, the trouble is all over........
Time for another home equity loan.........

 

Nope but the dollar is rising, you can stick your head in the sand and act like it ain't happening or get on board.

 

I'd like to see what evidence you have that the bottom is in on gold and that silver is about to break out? I only see gold moving and silver stalling.

 

The gold chart clearly shows gold has broken out..
I can post a chart........
Silver came close, but corrected.....

 

Sure, post a chart, include the 200 DMA and you will see resistance. Add in the MACD and STO and you will see it's overbought.

 

Gold broke out on Feb 2....

 

Silver is just breaking out..........
Another dollar or 2 and silver will break out....
Silver always follows gold......

 

The Dollar Will Die with a Whimper, Not a Bang
http://dailyreckoning.com/dollar-will-die-whimper-bang/