Severe Weather thread.

Well, the NOAA notice does mention that Irma might "Gain Latitude" so it might slide more northerly, missing south Texas...

 

I am located in the Lehigh Valley area. I know it's a little early but as the storm comes up north past the Carolinas please do not hesitate to ask for help. If the drive is not too bad I will help as much as possible. I may also be in the OCMD area end of September. PM if you need my number or whatever. Great thread btw

 

The 20 track forecasts for Irma from the 0Z Tuesday, September 5, 2017 GFS model ensemble forecast.


The 0Z September 5, 2017, track forecast by the operational European model for Irma (red line, adjusted by CFAN using a proprietary technique that accounts for storm movement since 0Z), along with the track of the average of the 50 members of the European model ensemble (heavy black line), and the 50 track forecasts from the 0Z Tuesday European model ensemble forecast (grey lines).


The 0Z September 5, 2017, track forecast by the operational European model for Irma (red line, adjusted by CFAN using a proprietary technique that accounts for storm movement since 0Z), along with the track of the average of the 50 members of the European model ensemble (heavy black line), and the track forecasts from the “high probability cluster” (grey lines)—the four European model ensemble members that have performed best with Irma thus far.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-5-irma-5th-strongest-atlantic-hurricane-record

 

I'm not digging the Euro model for Florida right now. All sides will get it badly.

 

Looks like Florida is SCREWED!

 

yup. it looks like no matter what florida will take a hit.

 

if Irma goes up slightly offshore from the Gulf Coast, Tampa Bay is in deep doo-doo, due to the rotational effects and storm surge!

 

I didn't see anything about the surge height. Is there an estimated? Or they probably won't know until it crawls over Cuba?

 

Nothing yet, it's just due to the rotational effects, the N.E. Quadrant will push a LOT of water into Tampa Bay if it tracks just off the gulf coast.

 

Rains and wind didn't get my grandmother's house the last hurricane. It was that storm surge from the rear of the city.

 

The storm surge is a real danger that a LOT of people don't think about...

 

I'm thinking about it, we're at 6' above sea level where I live in St. Augustine...

 

people think about it, they just don't realize what it actually means to them.

 

We'll be fine

 

we'll be thinking about you guys, what's your plans? stay and wait it out?

 

Timing is everything with the storm surge. Tide tables are relevant.

When Sandy hit up here, high tide was an hour later than the peak surge. My town got hit bad, but it could have been much worse if the tide and surge were at the same time.

 

Thank you! We have stocked up on water and non perishable food. This week we will be eating as much perishable food as we can. Loading up on ice in the freezer and coolers. We will be high and dry from flooding where our house is located (42 ft above sea level). Will be ready to evacuate if necessary. Main concern is how long power will be out for

 

Im an overlander. I have a fridge everywhere i go

 

if it does some damage down there, and if I have time...I want to make a trip to Florida like I did Rockport to help with cleanup.

 

that'd be awesome