Talk of Tacoma powertrain upgrade from head guy at Toyota US...

That's the crux. I have the same problem with the way diesels are marketed in the U.S., it would take longer than the vehicle is likely to last to justify the fuel savings. I have my reasons for wanting a diesel Tacoma, longer range especially off highway. I don't like carrying jerry cans.

When we bought our previous car we couldn't justify a TDI Jetta because there was no way it would pay for itself in MPG over a regular Civic or even the gasoline Jetta we ended up getting.

 

I don't even care if it's efficient. Just add a damn 8 cylinder. Always killed me that the four runners had v8s and you couldn't get a 4.0l in a single cab.

 

Let's say you buy a brand new BASE model Prius. MSRP = $23,475. And let's say you keep that vehicle for 250,000 miles.
In that time you will need another battery which costs about $2,000 on average. So total cost minus other maintenance/taxes, etc is about $25,475.
And let's say your average fuel mileage is 52 mpg (the average of city/hwy according to EPA).
250,000 miles / 52 mpg = 4,808 gallons of gas. 4,808 x 2.50 for fuel (average) = $12,020 in fuel costs for those miles.
Total operating cost = $25,475 + $12,020 = $37,495

Let's say you buy a brand new BASE model Elantra. MSRP = $16,950. No battery cost so total cost to buy minus other maintenance/taxes = $16,950.
And let's say your average fuel mileage is 33 combined city/hwy (EPA average).
250,000 miles / 33 mpg = 7,576 gallons of gas. 7,576 x 2.50 for fuel (average) = $18,940 in fuel costs for those miles.
Total operating cost = $16,950 + $18,940 = $35,890.

Elantra wins.

This is just 1 comparison. There are several other vehicles in the same class where you can get the car for cheaper or has more rebates and also get even better fuel mileage to stack up against that Prius.

P.S. Elantra currently has nearly $1000 more in local rebates/offers. This makes the gap larger.

 

Find it hard to believe that a hardcore Toyota guy you are, would ever even consider buying a VW product.

The ex-wife's Jetta was by far the worse vehicle that we had in the garage. That effin' thing! Came *this close* to taking it out to the desert and setting it ablaze...came to my senses, fixed one last gawd damn time and sold it to a sorority girl (well her parents) "oh please don't break down when they are test driving it, please don't break down..."

...then ran out and bought a Civic.

 

Ours replaced a Civic that I totaled. The Civic was a good car, same as the Toyotas in the era (mid 1990s). But she wanted a wagon and the Jetta wagon we got fit the bill. Normally aspirated 2.0L, 5 speed, crank windows, manual seats. It just turned 157K and it has had an electrical gremlin in the ECU or instrument circuit, but it doesn't seem to be terminal just annoying, and the catalytic converter has given up (Dealer quoted $2K, seriously).

What has happened is the two front fenders rusted through due to a design issue where crud builds behind them and doesn't drain. One day she was washing it and a 2" x 2" piece just fall off since the paint was holding it together, exposing 10 years of decaying leaves and serious cancer behind it. Toyota's North American truck frame project manager would be proud of the lack of attention to detail and financial corner cutting.

We bought a Forester to replace it (of course 6 speed stick, non-turbo, base model, made in Japan even!). You know I'd buy a 4WD Tercel wagon if Toyota still made it.

 

If that was the case then why would they stop selling gas altogether? I thought tree huggers were a small minority of hippies who don't buy cars anyway. I'm sure you know more about business than CEOs of large vehicle manufacturing companies.

Yeah no. The prius gets 58 city and 53 highway, I don't think your elantra is getting anywhere near those numbers.

Or have charging stations along the way that charge your vehicle in 15 minutes or less or use one of tesla's battery swapping stations that swap them faster than you can fuel up your car.

Most people dont commute 300 miles everyday for work, which is the range for the cheaper Tesla Model 3. Solar roofs are also become cheaper than regular roofs to purchase and install.

So drilling, shipping, refining and transporting gas is cleaner? lol. How many lithium mining accidents have you seen that wreaked havoc or is it just a fake news coverup?

Basically, you're clinging to the old adage and accepting anything that that remotely help your narrative. Gas is dying out. Sure, we'll still have some gas vehicles around just like we'll have some drive-your-own vehicles around in the future too, but the majority of the industry is going electric and there's nothing that you or your antiquated friends can do to stop the change.

 

1) The Prius gets 54/50. I just looked at the numbers on Toyotas website.
2) No Tesla stations can charge or swap a battery faster than fueling up. Plus there are very few of them out there.
3) Gas is not dying out. Drilling and usage are at an all time high and reserves are higher than ever as more are being found in a lot of new places out there.

 

The Model 3 is only 35k (cheaper than both of my vehicles), has an option to go to 310 miles; tesla superchargers can refill your car to 50% in 20 minutes.

Not to mention the Model S P100D is the quickest production car in the world of 0-60 of 2.5 seconds and a 1/4 mile of 10.7.

Now this won't work for everyone as people living in more rural areas who need to drive more than 200-300 miles a day before they go home and recharge or for those who have stupid laws like Florida where it's illegal to go off the grid for free solar power but it works for a lot of people in suburbs or cities. With the model 3 starting at 35k and technology becoming cheaper and cheaper I wouldn't be surprised to see electric cars with decent range in the sub 20k range in the next 5 years or so. Like you said, consumers are not dumb; it'll just take a few more years.

 

I was with you up until here, where you summed it up nicely. It's not being sold as a better way on merits in a competitive market. It's being pushed as you do it our way or get out of the way.

If it was true that oil was rare then the price of gasoline and diesel would reflect it but when adjusted for inflation the price of a gallon of gasoline hasn't changed in a century. This doesn't represent a dwindling resource. Now the argument could (and should) be forwarded that oil enjoys a fairly non-competitive position, being subsidized and assisted by governments (do we really think 60 years of wars in the Middle East is about humanitarian reason?). In fact Big Oil faces a regulatory prospect that their product may be specifically legislated out of existence despite actual supply or demand.

Then again, so are green technologies subsidized to an equal or greater extent. Early on Priuses and Teslas came with a large tax rebate that made them remotely affordable and gave the R&D a helping hand when the CEOs of those companies you suggest know their market had no interest in funding them.

 

1. Go look at the website again. The Prius eco gets 58/53/56 (https://www.toyota.com/prius/features/mpg/1221/1223/1224)
2. Wrong. Swapping is faster. https://www.tesla.com/videos/battery-swap-event Caveat: It was cheaper to implement more superchargers versus swapping stations and it looks like it's shelved for now.
3. Why do you think Dubai is changing from an oil exporting commerce to a tourist commerce? No, they aren't running out of oil; they have enough to last the next 100 years. Usage is at a high because it's cheap. Most of our gas doesn't come from traditional drilling anyway; it comes from oil sands and fracking.

 

I never argued that it was a dwindling resource. I just said the use of it is dying out when cheaper, renewable resources are becoming more and more readily available. Anecdotally, one of my best friends worked in Dubai for 4 years in the power industry. They have enough oil to last several centuries. However they are switching to a tourist based economy rather than one focused on oil exports as they know eventually people will stop using oil for the majority of power needs. I spent a week there and everything they're building is to generate more tourism (world's biggest this and that).

I also never argued that subsidies helped them take off, but they're here and cheap now. If I lived in an area that was sunnier 24/7 and planned to live in my house indefinitely I would invest in a solarcity style solar roof, battery pack and have my daily drivers be electric and keep the my gas burning truck as my adventure/weekend getaway car.

 

I think this is something we actually don't know. Many people believe proven reserve numbers are generally bull and used to support a drilling and export rate that is unsustainable. OPEC and the oil companies would be in real trouble if Wall St. and consumers knew the fields were producing a lower rates. It's same as government contract, where nothing can ever go down in price. Investors always expect oil fields to produce.

We may have hit peak oil, I don't disagree with anyone who says our petroleum addicted world can be sustained forever. It has gotten more expensive to extract, because the cheap sources are being consumed quickly. But we as society aren't being honest with ourselves or the way solution are being forwarded. EVs and gas hybrids are one option that is currently the darling of regulators. Why aren't alcohol engines being explored? They use a highly renewable fuel.

 

First, the model 3 is not out yet. Also your post is a bit misleading. The $35K price is NOT for the 300 mile really fast model 3. You have to add $9K to get there. So now that's a $44K vehicle. In addition, Tesla won't produce nor will anyone buy a $44K base model. They will add the Tech packages and very quickly that vehicle gets priced to around $55K. That's $20K more than my truck.

What would happen if you could only add nine gallons of gas in your Tacoma and it took 20 minutes to do so? And that was the best you could do!

I think ultimately the consumer will drive the development, just like with almost everything else except the Ipod. When the electric car makes sense to the masses, the masses will start buying them. I am anxious to see vehicles like the Bollinger coming up and how good they really are.

 

157K is amazing for a VW, ours made it to 60K, before we enough of its' BS.

gee-sas 2K for a cat!?

I like the looks of the VW and how they drive, but could never own another.

Ha ha, that is damn funny!

I keep on looking at the Forestor, think it would work for 90% of the things I do...but the price difference between that and a SR Tacoma ACLB, isn't all that much different, mpgs aren't that much different...so....well you know how it goes. Think we are going to wait on a new truck and see if she gets tenure at the college she teaches at which is 2 years out...so as usual keep on fixing my old crap and continue to pine over a new vehicle. There is also talk of us moving into Boise...then all this mpg non-sense goes away, then I could ride a bicycle to work...of course it would cost us $100-150K to do so, since house prices are so much more there than where we are now. Pretty much shoots me trying to save any money out the freakin' window...


One of my dirt bike buds moved to NZ...those Toyota 4WD wagons are pretty popular there...he is always showing off his.

 

I said it has an option to go 310 miles, not that it came with 310 range stock. As for no one buying the Tesla 3, it might be your area but I have around 5 friends who all put deposits on the 3. Not to mention about 3 more friends who already own the Model S and the X. In our area, the Model S is extremely common place; it's kind of the status quo vehicle for softdevs or for those working in the industry. My commute is short, 10 minutes so driving my truck daily to work doesn't bother me, but my old commute was about 1-2 hours depending on traffic (just go to a little over 20 miles) and sitting there in traffic in a truck would be no fun.

I agree with you though that consumers will drive up the developement of electric/hybrid cars. In my opinion, we'll see less and less gas-only cars just like how the body-on-frame SUV segment pretty much died out (save for the 4runner, tahoe, etc) and more electric/hybrid cars. I believe Volvo in fact, will be the first company to stop offering gas-only vehicles before 2020.

 

https://www.toyota.com/
2017 Prius 54/50

And it takes less than 1 minute to fill my gas tank. Swapping batteries takes way longer.

 

Dubai built their entire tourism economy from massive oil profits. You let me know when they close those drills haha.

 

or more than likely, a higher gear-count transmission like an 8-speed.

 

Yeah go look a few inches to the right of that page and you'll see the eco with the numbers I said. I guess you only like to read parts that fit your narrative.


It takes you less than 1 minute to pull out your card, type in your zip code, choose a grade, fuel up, put it back and screw your gas cap on? Sure. We aren't talking about how long you last in bed lol. Did you even watch the video?

 

No shit, why do you think they're turning into a tourist economy? They aren't dumb.