Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

Yeah, I did read that... it seems to indicate "problem ahead"... but not when. As you can see, if people sold off when the yield curve inverted, they would have missed out on quite a bull run leading up to the crash in 2008, which looked like it happened once the 2 and 10 year yields began to diverge again (added more charts in above post)

 

That is kind of where I'm at. What if there's a bull run for the next 2 years, then a recession? I don't want to miss out on that, it could even negate most or all of what ends up lost in the recession. It is cyclical so it's definitely coming, soon too, how soon who knows?

 

Well I think we shouldn't worry until they are damn near touching, at that point... then I would start figuring out when to get out once they cross over (if)

 

I saw something recently and of the past like five recessions that had a yield curve inversion beforehand it on average took the a year to go from a difference of 0.5% to inverted,and then once the curve actually inverted it took on average another 20 months for the recession to begin.

And in the time from the rates being 0.5% apart and the recession starting the S&P had an average of like 20% growth. That’s a lot of lost money if you’re jittery and pull your money out.

So the curves being close to inverting, or actually inverting, are still not really an indicator a recession is about to happen tomorrow. More just a forecast that there may be one in the coming years.

 

Yep... maybe wait a bit, then yank your money out when 2 year rates start falling (?), just gotta know when... then buy at the bottom... when... 10 year rates fall? I'm not sure of a buy-in indicator

 

Gold? Lol
DOW is the blue line

 

If I had the answers to those questions I’d be working in financials and not mechanical engineering

 

A well diversified basket of low cost mutual funds and ETF’s.

Why? Because if you leave it and forget about it for 30 years with a modest 8% return, you’ll have 110k without ever making another contribution to it. And there’s no stress involved with messing around with individual stocks. Rebalancing your holdings once a quarter or every six months is about all you’ll need to do.

 

get outta here with your boring answers

 

Fine, then I say put it all in silver, not gold

 

if your job has 401k contribute. then make sure if you have a mortgage, its always nice to pay a little extra. (after you have some savings for a raining situation) and then after all bills are payed if you can put some money towards VANGARD 500 then I would put some there and depending on what you make live life and spend some money that you have earned. your only young once

 

Dammit. Netflix climbed back up. Should have just bought in when it was down to 294. Maybe it’ll drop again tomorrow morning

 

maybe buy some square? down 12% in the past day... I would imagine it will snap back

 

Don’t lump me in with your misery!

 

If only I could tell my past self to wait 3 days before buying..

 

got a $3,000 bonus last month. Didnt even tell the wife.

Spent it all on silver

 

This article is interesting, it proposes a few different indications of the bond yield curve, even suggesting low interest rates on long term bonds could mean less risk is expected ahead. I wouldn’t say I agree, but it is a plausible theory.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/qz.com...-is-getting-flatter-should-we-be-worried/amp/

 

square is up 4% today.. I guess they are up on the back of Facebook, Paypal, Visa earnings. Still don't know what the selloff was all about. Certainly not fundamentals. I still have 8% to go

 

ASEs, Maples, and Libertades

 

The 10 year T-Note down by over 1% already today. If I am understanding this correctly, the curve is becoming more flat when this happens (and the short-term bond yield goes up)?