2020 Tacoma Teased

If they offer a hybrid trim, that will be alarming.

 

Not on topic at all but the possibility of a US recession in 2019 is currently 23.6219% as of yesterday. The model follows prior recessions but they were at the 40%+ range... that all being said it is rising %wise of 2% since December 2018. It appears to be edging towards the early 90's bump but nothing near the 80-81 recession.

 

Financial guru checking in before this gets out of hand.
Carry on.

 

Any input to put the recession to rest

 

Just from my money podcasts, articles I've read over the last 6 months when gandering. Here is a quick one. The things you listed don't mean we aren't in store for a recession, there's more to it as we saw in 2008 than unemployment, taxes or fuel prices. From the first google article, I'll grab some more, specifically from well known economists. Biggest factor they mention along all of them is the amount of debt across the board.

1. The unemployment rate will struggle to push lower
Since the unemployment rate peaked at 10 percent in October 2009, it's been on a pretty steady decline. As of May 2018, it hit 3.8 percent, which tied the lowest unemployment rate recorded since April 2000 and would have been a 39-year low had it ticked one-tenth of a percent lower. A low unemployment rate is usually a sign that the U.S. economy is in good shape.

The issue is this: It's incredibly difficult to improve upon an unemployment rate of 4 percent. People changing jobs makes it difficult to generate enough job growth to continually push the unemployment rate lower than 4 percent. What's more, a smaller pool of unemployed workers could make it difficult for companies to filled skilled positions. If employers can't fill positions, then their production capacity becomes constrained.

Additionally, an environment in which unemployment rates are low puts the ball into the workers' courts. If businesses are required to parcel out higher wages to lure in new workers and retain existing talent, it could result in a significant increase to inflation, which would be bad. I'll be covering inflation in more detail in an upcoming point.

2. The yield curve is flattening
Another growing concern is the flattening of the yield curve.

The yield curve is nothing more than a depiction of the interest rates paid by various maturities of U.S. Treasury bonds. Traditionally, we'd expect to see short-term bonds, such as 1- and 3-month notes, pay a considerably lower interest rate than long-term bonds, such as 10- and 30-year notes. A flattening of the yield curve happens when the gap between short-term and long-term rates shrinks. An inversion, whereby short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, has preceded each and every recession since the Great Depression.


Why's this a big deal, you ask? The reason is that banks borrow at short-term lending rates and lend at longer-term rates. The greater the difference between the two, the more profitable it is for banks to lend money. However, when this gap shrinks, it becomes less enticing to lend. And when it inverts, banks have virtually no desire to lend money, leading to a halt in growth and a recession.

To be clear, the 10-year and 3-month notes aren't inverted at the moment – these two specific maturity lengths are often good measures to examine when looking at the yield curve. However, the gap in yield between these two notes has been shrinking, and that could be a warning sign.

3. Inflation has begun picking up
Don't overlook the fact that inflation – i.e., the rising price of an identical basket of goods and services – has begun to pick up since the beginning of the year. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, less food and energy, hit 2.4 percent in July 2018. That's its highest reading since September 2008.

As the price of goods and services rises, likely a result of a strong labor market and wage growth, it forces the Federal Reserve to get more aggressive with its monetary policy. And by monetary policy, I'm talking about its ability to influence interest rates via the federal funds target rate. If interest rates begin to climb rapidly, it could constrain lending and increase individual and/or corporate interest rates on variable-rate loans.

In short, while some inflation is good (the Fed typically targets 2 percent), too much can be bad news.

4. Home sales are beginning to decline in key markets
During the Great Recession, housing was a leading indicator of the trouble that lay ahead. It's possible that we could be seeing similar warning signs (without insanely high mortgage default rates) this time around.

As noted by CNN Money earlier this month, home sales have declined in four of the past five months, despite the fact that home prices and wages are on the rise. This could signal that homeowners simply aren't able to afford new homes or that they don't see the market properly reflecting the price of homes in their respective areas.

More specifically, in June 2018, we witnessed an 11.8 percent year-over-year decline in new and existing home and condominium sales in California, according to CoreLogic. California's housing market is often a leading indicator to the industry as a whole. Seeing sales dip by a double-digit percentage should be a warning that Wall Street and investors pay attention to.

5. Credit card debt and late payments are on the rise
Credit cards are a bit of a push-pull for the U.S. economy. Heavy usage suggests heightened purchasing activity, which is a good thing since U.S. GDP is largely consumer driven. Then again, delinquencies and significant credit card debt can come back to haunt the U.S. economy during recessions.

A report released by credit-reporting agency TransUnion as of February 2018 found that three key credit metrics were all heading higher.

• The number of outstanding credit cards climbed from 364.2 million to 418.6 million between 2014 and 2017.
• The average debt per cardholder increased from $5,329 in 2014 to $5,644 as of 2017.
• The percentage of accounts that were 90 or more days delinquent had jumped from 1.48 percent in 2014 to 1.87 percent in 2017.

The issue here is that as interest rates rise, servicing this debt is going to become more difficult, likely resulting in higher delinquency rates. As we witnessed with the housing crisis in 2008–2009, rising delinquency rates can create a bad domino effect for the companies behind these loans.

6. The economic cycle suggests a contraction
Finally, while the stock market and the U.S. economy don't adhere to averages, Wall Street and investors would be wise to pay attention to the current and historic economic expansion cycles.

As noted, we're currently in the second-longest economic expansion of the past 161 years (109 months and counting). The only longer expansion was the 120 months leading up to the dot-com bubble. This would suggest that we're more than likely closer to the latter stages of our current expansion, based on historical expansion length, than to the middle.

Though averages alone don't provide enough concrete evidence that a recession is near, they are another piece of a growing puzzle that implies a recession is closer than you probably realize.

 

the absolute best buying experience i ever had was with a custom configured MINI Cooper. every single option in the car was my choice. there's nothing i wanted that i didn't get and there's nothing i got that i didn't request. granted, MINIs don't sell in nearly the same volume as Toyotas, so it might be a bit more challenging, but i do wish more manufacturers gave you the option to fully spec out a car/truck. i had to wait 10 weeks for delivery and only got $500 of sticker, but it was well worth it to have exactly what i wanted.

 

I want it rock bottom until the day I cash in. Then I want it to be record breaking high.

 

Feel free to chime in. Im no expert, but I listen to plenty of economists, money podcasts, etc. And most agree 2019-2020 as we are overdue for a correction / one.

 

I work in a factory.

 

Market corrections and recessions are not one and the same. We just went through a correction in 2018 and it was needed to slow the progress to a full on recession.

 

Correct, but often linked.

 

So if I'm reading this correctly, Toyota will build the same amount of 2020 Tacomas, but because the economy is going to shit the bed, they won't be able to sell, forcing the price down. Looks like I'm getting whatever is under that sheet...

Just messing with you. I do actually agree with what you're saying, but let's stay on topic. Maybe they'll have heated floor mats on the 2020 Tacoma.

Edit: Heated floor mats with refrigerator 5G connectivity. Who else is dying for that feature? Well, everyone except that one guy complaining about his dishwasher.

 

Agreed, was just mentioning that the sales growth and good times won't be forever. But such is our system. Excited to see if all our predictions come true for tomorrow.

 

Sort of, if the correction lasts over many months then the recession is almost inevitable but one of the recent major corrections know as Black Monday, October 19, 1987, lasted just about 4 months and no recession as the market had peaked in August

 

As I mentioned in the other post, record global debt.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ion-hit-two-years-worse-Great-Depression.html

 

Correct, believe its considered a recession if it lasts 6 months+. It's always a guessing game. Capitalism for the win.

 

What you have provided is legitimate but there are many other factors that have led to previous recessions. Companies themselves were to blame for allowing customers to overspend and overextend their finances. We’re the people to blame? Absolutely. But... These shady businesses allowed for economic turmoil to happen.

Just because housing prices may be falling (again, this depends on who you get information from), this has to do with the market of buyers and the demand for homes. It has been proven that many individuals are less likely to commit to such a long term investment in today’s unpredictable landscape.

With the influx of jobs and the decrease in unemployment at record levels, we are setting ourselves and our country to succeed not only for now, but for the future.


Our economy is gonna be fine. If you are worried, go buy some stuff and stimulate it! 2020 Taco is a start!

 

Which economists do you listen to? Are they impartial or do they just hate the current administration and want to scream “fire” to get everyone to panic?

 

True, these are just some indicators, but as you mentioned earlier, debt and bad investments on debt drove the last crisis and we just hit record Global debt which is why those that try to predict and make money off of these cycles are saying we are due for one soon.

 

Most are in the 12-15 month range but the 90's dip was only 3 months long...Capitalism ROCKS and in the US we all benefit from it. Now what about the 2020 Tacoma release and the heated floor mat and 5G fridge options