The Nashville Thread

What exactly do you do? This looks interesting as fuck

 

I'll throw some more graphs up here tomorrow. What I find odd is the "number of listings with price decreases" have steadily gone down since 2010, yet the sale price to listing price ratio has gone down I'm a senior statistical analyst. Which is just a fancy way of saying I'm a data analyst or -maybe- junior data scientist

 

these are quick and dirty, I dont like how Zillow structures their data where the date is a column. But it is what it is.
All of this data is available here: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/

Days on Zillow:




The buy vs. rent breakeven horizon for Nashville is 2 years and 1 month.
For my zip code it is 4 years and 3 months.
The longest breakeven point is zip code 37219, which is 6 years and 1 month, which is downtown (lol).
The shortest is zip 37207, which is North Nashville, just north of the Cumberland (often called one of the worst areas in town currently), which is 1 year and 6 months.

Keep in mind that this "breakeven point" likely assumed that the home will always appreciate in value. As many of you know, that is not always going to happen. If people end up underwater on their mortgage, it would set off a chain reaction in the market and would cause a selloff.

For buying the report assumes:

• A 20% down payment
• Monthly payments on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage at the current interest rate for people with credit ratings between 680 and 740
• Property taxes
• Homeowner’s insurance
• 3% purchase costs
• 8% selling costs (because that’s how owners realize the gains)
• Annual maintenance costs equal to 1% of the home’s value
• For condos, 1.2% a year in HOA fees
• Home appreciation forecasts
• Federal tax deductions

For renting the report assumes:

• A deposit equal to one month’s rent
• Rent payments
• Renter’s insurance
• 5% annual investment gains on money that would have been used as a down payment or gone towards other homeowner expenses the renter avoids

unfortunately Zillow's data on "seasonally adjusted" sale prices are completely removed from reality when looking at the other charts. So take this one with a grain of salt. There were no options for "non-seasonally adjusted" data.


Thanks to nearly a decade of ZIRP propping up the economy and dubious decision making by Fed Chairman Bernanke after the financial crisis, we are seeing a period of asset inflation that has caused home prices to rise nearly 100% in Nashville. Sprinkle in a little bit of AirBnb investors using homes as speculative investments and you have what we see here. The increase in lending rates has had a minimal effect on the buying and selling activity thus far. I would not be surprised in sale activity remains relatively flat now that there are going to be little/no interest rate hikes by the Fed and the interest rates being set at what the Fed calls "neutral".

 

Don't worry BigB, we'll help you with the BIG words when it's time...

 

Hahaha , alright @ThunderOne. Break it down for us, what’s the forecast in the upcoming year/two for purchasing?

 

Interesting

 

Anyone have a factory 2nd/3rd gen Tacoma or 4th/5th gen 4runner lower control arm laying around that they’d be willing to part with for a little while.

 

Best guess? Who the hell knows. I'm constantly torn between "we are at the top" and "I should just buy something already". You just moved here recently right?

 

I’m banking on the first one, and a collapse in about 2-3 years. I’m hoping to be ready to buy around then.

 

Me too. I need to move out of my current living situation if I REALLY want to sock away a bunch of cash, because I'll need well north of $50k for a 20% down payment. By then perhaps the prices will have eased and my down payment will make a bigger dent. But if the supply doesn't increase, the prices may never go down. I'm hoping all the apartment buildings sprouting up will ease the housing market.

Since I mentioned north Nashville being one of the worst areas, with the fastest "break even" horizons, I did see a couple of decent new homes (aka has a garage) out there for $400k right on the river which looks at the ugly titans "practice tent", and at that price is considered a good value in this market. That area is dead as far as accessibility to anything though, unless you like baptist churches and liquor stores. But there's tons of vacant land out there and the whole area is ripe for development IMO. Could be a fantastic investment opportunity in the long term.

 

I have a set of LCAs you can have, but there is some seized cam bolts in them.

 

Are they off the truck?

 

They are off the truck.

 

Ooooh. Where are you located? And are you going to be at LBL?

 

Yep, looking to purchase a home + a bit of land, enough for a few horses down south of Nashville. Will likely rent for 2ys and keep our eyes on the market, I'm thinking it'll go down by then. Once that happens, mod days at my place! From what I've heard, we just passed the peak, and it's going to only be getting more affordable to buy in the coming years... But also, don't want to miss out on something if we see it!

 

The unfortunate downside of no longer being at peak prices is that the interest rates that have increased will probably make up for it in total cost thankfully they have been remaining low even after the Fed hikes. Where did you move from? If you're from the West Coast, you probably think these houses aren't expensive lol

 

We're sort of from all over..but we were renting at ridiculous prices in LA, looked at the market and GTFO. For a sh!t house in need of work, in not a great area, where you can touch your neighbors house out your window...you're looking at 600k...and for some land you're in the (multiple) millions..Soo, we're pretty pumped on what it looks like out here. We considered Vermont, and surprisingly it's up near California prices, without the pay to soften the blow.

 

New England is not far off from California prices. It's pretty shitty.

 

as long as both of y'all don't pay insane prices here, it'll keep the market in check. I think part of the problem in Nashville is lots of East/West coasters moving here, thinking "ah this is cheap!" and then the market goes way up trying to find the proper pricing for houses. That leaves broke-ass me from Alabama, where you could buy a literal mansion for 400k, priced out