Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

gotta love the trade war market cycle. I've got idle cash ready to dump into the next dip.

 

Speaking of market cycle, the market has basically been flat for 15 months. Everyone has been talking about the recent gain, but the chart looks horrible for almost a year and a half. We might finally break through with a trade deal!

 

December wasn’t just due to trade talks. Rising interest rates from the Fed. Economic indicators and earnings pointing to a decline in equities. Also December normally gets a little volatile as tax harvesting and other reasons for people selling at EOY taking place.

Inflation is dropping. Fed isn’t raising rates, (especially if equity market is dropping).

There is so much money on the side waiting for a dip in equities and housing. I see it with all of my clients, and we all discuss the same here. Everyone wants to buy, but no one wants to buy at the top.

How many times did we see a post in here in January/February saying “Crap I wish I bought more in December!”? Buy fear, sell greed.

45 doesn’t need a perfect trade deal to take place. There just has to be some sort of deal, or a delay in negotiations.

I’ll keep happily slowly adding to positions. Let volatility be your friend. I went in heavy on TVIX this morning and set a stop loss ~2% below my entry. Just sold for ~15% gain.

 

damn. TVIX scares the shit outta me. I feel like if I look away for 2 seconds then something bad will happen haha. I day traded it once, but it didn't go well for me

 

The only thing I would disagree with here is that I think this recent climb has been due to the assumption that a trade deal was guaranteed. I could see a lot more downside than potential for upside, I just think the upside we have seen is due to a trade deal being priced in.

That's just my take on it. I also think we get a deal or something close to it on Friday though, and we head back up. Just a guess.

 

It helped, but we had a lot of strong economic factors and a fairly good earnings season.

 

I can't say I have a ton of cash ready to plow into a dip, but I will move some money out of bonds into stocks if there is a dip.

 

I agree. I am not really saying it right. I guess I mean: trade deal = 5% upside, no trade deal = 15%+ downside. I’m no expert, I buy and hold forever regardless of the day’s price, but that’s how I see it.

 

yeah, unless the Fed cuts rates (lol)

 

I love this thread and the recent topics, but somehow fear the wrong person will view it political. ( Not me).

I think we get "adulting" points for acting like grown ups.

Sorry about the derail. Things pop into my head and I turn them to print.

 

Whenever I put something political on this website I write "(please don't ban me)." So far it has worked lol

 

whenever we talk politics we are pretty much saying "yeah, so and so did this and now the market did this"... we are just regurgitating the news lol

 

I'm thinking were not getting a trade deal, market will tank for about 2 weeks and go down about 15-20% then be back to current levels by around July.

 

Buy the dip I'm ready.

 

Anyone got ideas on anything/category? Looks like another day of drops predicted and I got a few dollars free looking to play.

 

Healthcare has mostly sat out this rally. I think it is partly to do with the democrats screeching "Medicare for all!" Of course, that's not going to happen. It will rally, and when Trump wins again, I think it will really rally. Very cheap right now.

 

i do know we rambled on about some points of politics in here that weren't necessarily about the market.. Everyone was civil about it though. I feel this isn't the thread people get to ruffled up on.

 

Money. We don't care who does what. We watch money.

 

It really is impossible to talk about the markets without injecting some politics. The politicians have a lot of influence on where the market goes so there's just no way to leave it out. But of course there's no need to promote a specific ideologies, I try not to do that (might toe the line sometimes without even realizing it).