Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

LOL good luck with that

 

Unemployment figures have always removed people not looking for work. The numbers you’re seeing are the real numbers.

Permanent homeless people aren’t the type to normally enter the workforce - many choose that life, others are forced into it due to mental illness. I live near SF, and a quick google search gave me the following: “In that time, the overall homeless population, according to one-night counts done every two years, has fallen from 8,640 in 2004 to 7,499 in 2017.”

Inflation is slightly below the fed target - not necessarily a bad thing depending on the way you look at it.

And lastly, tweets have become a communication medium used by corporations, consumers, and the government. Look at a tweet the same way you look at a televised presidential press conference as we used to have from the 80’s-2000’s. Communication methods change and adopt.

Just throwing out differing opinions.

 

Wait until Trump gets reelected- DJIA will crush 30,000 and markets will go higher than ever.

 

It all comes down to how old are you . If retired and 70 , you may not be able withstand a 30+ % correction and wait until it comes back . I have felt all along that the average return is for us sheeples ( a pretty good deal at that ). Those with the real money ride the runs up to new highs , then pull out and let the bag holders loose. Then they decide what is still valuable and pick up the stocks at a huge discount . and then do it again . The trouble is that the real money is held by very few , and even they have it run by computers now .
This last bailout in 09 to me , was like the game of monopoly . Just about everyone was out of money/options , so the winners gave out new money to all just to keep the game going lol.
I am not saying timing the market is at all a good idea , but I do believe it is rigged .

 

That's why my strategy is dividend growth stocks. I hope to have an income stream of dividends in retirement, so market prices won't matter. I do have 30+ years until I'd realistically retire, but I like this idea because there's a lot less worry.

 

I like your thinking but ... Being retired now , I see some long time dividend stocks become irrelevant now. What do you see as dividend stocks that will withstand the next 30+ years ? Or do you sell and change into new stocks as things change ?

 

I have made over half of my portfolio out of dividend aristocrats (25+ years of increasing dividend). The rest I picked through research, some REITs as well. I’d have no problem selling out of a company at a loss if they stop paying. I have my money split equally between 33 companies so it wouldn’t be a big hit. As for now, just hoping for the best. I have faith in WMT, TGT, CVX, T, XOM, etc.

 

Damn , that is a lot of research on a daily basis to keep up with 33 companies for news . How much time per day do you spend on keeping up ?

 

I don't keep up with the companies with that history of increasing dividends, just add more shares. Perhaps I should, but I don't. So far this year I am about even with the S&P, maybe down by a percent or two. But I am getting a yield of just under 5% so the income is worth the slight under performance (in my situation at least).

Edit: Don't get me wrong, I do read a lot, but more because I am interested in this stuff. I would have no issue holding all of the dividend aristocrats and blindly adding to them with no research. It ends up being similar to an index fund when you have 20-30 companies so it's not as risky as it may seem.

 

Can you give me a few examples of these? I would like to do some research, look into what happened. I know GE would probably be on that list, but do you know of any others?

 

We have a yield curve that is inverting, rate cuts on the way (because the economy cannot sustain itself on its own), and more QE in the works (while it will appear to make equity markets higher, is really just a function of inflation).

No, there has not been a recession yet, because the fed will not yet allow that to happen. All that means is when we finally have a recession, it will be bigger and worse than if they let the markets correct to fair value on their own without manipulation and increased distortions that have been ongoing for a decade now.

Diversification is the name of my game.

401k (equities/bonds) - I admit my approach in this is too conservative and I should be more heavily weighted in equities than I am. I am a fairly active trader when it comes to this and I should let it just ride, however knowing a recession is not a matter of if but when, I try to protect my principal as much as possible as I don't want to take a significant loss in the next recession.

Roth IRA

Hard assets, IMO, are very important:
The house I am currently living in. This is a big piece of my retirement. I can't afford to retire until the house is paid off.
Cash - this is hopefully going to be a down payment on a rental income property once the housing market makes it's next correction.
PM - this makes up of less than 10% of my investment portfolio. Some think this is a waste of time, but I see it completely the opposite. It is unlikely PM's will decrease in value over time, especially with rising inflation.

 

I thought maybe you were one of those conspiracy theorists and you were putting your faith in gold coins and freeze dried food.

Timing the market doesn't work but you should shift asset allocation as your near retirement age.

 

LOL, yea no tinfoil hat for me. I grew up as a boy scout and it was ingrained in me to 'always be prepared'.

I should have a better food storage. The 'Big One' hasn't happened yet in California.

You are right on about having the right asset allocation as retirement nears.

 

Isn’t this always true? It’s just part of the market, every several years it should happen. Trying to time it or even prepare for it will be worse than doing nothing (in my opinion).

 

Interesting...

You are correct that market corrections are supposed to happen every several years, but we are over a decade since the last one. And nothing was fundamentally fixed after the '08 crash. The next one will be monumentally worse than '08.

I respectfully disagree that not preparing is better than doing nothing though.

I want to buy a rental income property at some point. That can only happen if 2 things occur: 1) I save enough of a down payment so I can afford another mortgage, and 2) housing prices fall. I need to prepare now and save for a down payment so when housing comes down, I can pounce.

 

I should clarify, doing nothing will be your best bet if you’re in the market for the long haul. Actually, buying during and after a correction will do you well. If you plan on taking the money out, ignore all of that. I couldn’t tell you what to do there. I think the stock market only works if you’re in it forever.

 

Any predictions on where the market goes at 2:00 ET today? I would expect a multiple percentage move in either direction, depending on what the Fed says. I am thinking no rate cut, market down.

 

I am hoping this. We do not need a friggin rate cut. Markets are at or near ATHs. Throwing a temper tantrum ain't gonna do much.

 

Yield curve 2y/10y June 2016 - June 2019

Been watching 10 year since that is what seems to have the most effect on mortgage rates

 

I think a rate cut is already priced in, so if we get a rate cut, I don't think much action will happen.

If no rate cut, then down 1% today.