Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

From 2010 to 2013 you could have got into Tesla for $20-$30 a share that would have made you some money. I think from here forward you’re going to lose.

Same with Amazon, those who got in early are rich. I think Amazon going forward is a horrible investment.

I might be wrong about both but I think it’s all hype, no earnings to back it up.

 

What do you guys think about Twitter?

 

I can’t invest in a company that doesn’t make some sort of product. Whether it’s a store, food, cars, electronics, gotta be something. I don’t understand a website that sells ads, just not a company to me. I probably sound like an old guy.

 

what do you guys think of all this clamoring for a 2020 recession? Sure, there are a few cash burning crapola IPO companies, but even in the midst of this trade war, I don't see any signs of recessionary behavior. The only big question is the bond market and a possible run on the fund. I have made more in gains in the bond market over the last year than my other positions have (Dollar cost avg).

Everyone seems to be chasing yield or buying up bonds in hopes they can sell them at a higher price, and it'll be fine until people start making mass exits, then the bonds at their low rates will be useless and people will trigger a selloff because if they aren't making money on gains on the bond prices then there will be problems.

 

I personally think the 20% correction last year will hold us over for a while. I would expect several good years ahead. No recession, and even if there is one, it will be mild. People always think about 2008 when they talk about recessions, but if you look historically, the average recession is just a flat market, the big crash isn't always part of it.

Edit: This is a good website. It shows the average recession drop since the 1950's is -1.5%. The gains in the years following make it up quickly too. There is a chart back to the 1920's, which is obviously worse, but still not even a drop of -10% over long periods (looking at all recessions). The Great Depression skews these numbers quite a bit.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2015/03/stock-performance-before-during-after-recessions/

 

I will add one thing with Amazon. If they ever spin off AWS, and it pays a dividend, I’d probably be interested. That would be a money generating machine that would last a long time. A share price under $1,700 would also be nice for making small additions over a long time period.

 

So uh, the fed cut rates... again? Wtf?

RIP my high interest savings account.

2017-2019

 

High interest savings accounts? Lol they have been gone for decades

 

A hawkish rate cut with markets at all time highs.

That's a sentence I never thought I'd say.

 

A hawkish rate cut? That's a hell of an oxymoron!

 

I think all of these recent cuts have been hawkish. Powell makes it seem like they have all been one-time events. If he had just said from the beginning that there would be 3+ cuts (a rate cutting cycle), the market would have shot up.

 

fool me once... I don't believe a damn word that comes out of Powell's mouth anymore

 

No, shit. exactly what I was thinking when I saw the news.

 

Well my savings may not be a 2% account anymore, but my investment portfolio rose 4% today sooooooo I’m satisfied. Hoping for all time highs this week. I may be sad if it all falls tomorrow though.

 

no choice but to invest! Every dollar not invested is a dollar, then .999 of that original dollar... then .998 of a dollar.. repeat ad nauseum.

So you have to be 99% risk on in a desperate attempt to outpace inflation, and have 5 million dollars saved by retirement, because by 2050 and inflation, that's probably how much you'll need.

As long as we don't turn into Japan, we'll be fine. But if we do, we are all fucked

 

https://youtu.be/YeiFMirdToA

 

I think if I figured out that I'd need 5 million saved to retire, I'd just retire at 59 1/2 and spend the rest of my days living in a shack. Not much point in trying then.

 

I doubt it.

Anyone in this thread is not retiring at any age.

We just change where they money is coming from.

 

Yeah, the system is set up for you to work until you die. Anything better than that and you're a winner. Best bet is to avoid debt whenever possible. And hope that at some point the US joins the rest of the "First World" and adopts government-sponsored healthcare.