Tacoma -vs Ranger 2019 sales figures...it aint pretty

This is the thing that bugs me with pro-electric car folks. They get so wrapped up in the future/progressive aspect of it that they believe electric is flawless and ICE is old and riddled with problems. Not saying you are this way, but I see it a lot in the marketing and in the media.

As with anything, there are pros and cons, and electric cars have significant cons compared to ICE. Longevity and range degradation for starters... A well maintained ICE engine can go 500k miles and still get the same range in 15 years that it did at day 1. That predictability is important to a lot of people. How is the electric car industry working to address that? Most of the new developments in electric we hear about focus on performance, power density, and weight savings, not longevity.

 

Plus who wants an electric car going on vacation with kids and have to stop and charge it, for how long? That would be boring. I can recharge mine in less than 5 minutes depending how much gas or diesel is in what I'm driving

 

First off thanks for showing the math. After looking it over isn't this saying that the (extremely roughly calculated) 962.88 million MWh consumption would be an additional (roughly) 23% demand on the power grid? And this doesn't factor any other additional demands as well. I just have some serious reservations about the ability of the power grid to handle such demands without a serious comprehensive overhaul, which I doubt the utility monopolies will be enthusiastic about doing. Unless it's government subsidized, which will be terrifyingly expensive. This is one of the reasons I think the EV revolution will happen much slower and more incrementally. I mean it took forever to get people to give up their analog signal TVs 10 years ago and required a government subsidized converter box program to happen.

 

There always pros and cons. You'd have to sit down and make a spreadsheet there are so many differences. I would be willing to bet though that the TCO on an electric is going to be cheaper eventually. It doesn't take much to make an electric motor go that far, the only real liability is the battery pack, which can be replaced (possibly with more capacity too)

 

One aspect that analysis leaves out is timing of the additional load, since we're only looking at the grand total. Usage peaks in the morning and the evening, but electric cars can be charged during the day, and all night long. That presents a much more manageable load to the grid.

 

We went out of town for Thanksgiving this year and drove by a Tesla supercharger station (a very popular one)... I kid you not, there was a line of 30 Teslas waiting to charge . I couldn't believe it. What a PITA that must be... families sitting there, cold outside, kids crying and hungry. It looked miserable lol

 

I didn't think about that, how does the car generate heat and air conditioning?

 

When does Ford release their next sales figures? Around January 15th?

 

Agreed, there are definitely ways to help mitigate the draw at peak times, but that could also just have the unintended side effect of stressing the grid with a peak level draw for longer periods. Just seems like alot more research and planning needs to go into this before the whole revolution happens.

 

AC uses an electric compressor I think. The heater is electric and very inefficient from what I've heard... expect a range loss of about ~30% just using the heater alone.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cold-weather-saps-electric-car-batteries-2019-02-07

 

Eh, the grid is a mess as it is.

Really though, it's such a hodgepodge. It'll get upgraded piece by piece as needed. Hopefully before the lights go out.

 

That's what happens when you don't have an engine pumping out waste heat, you have to get it somewhere else. Pros and cons for sure.

 

It actually is pretty smart. It’s part of the tech that the charger companies (Eaton, Seimens, Schneider, ABB) are putting into all of the new chargers. If you, for instance, skim the smallest amount off 40 cars in a parkade, you can recover a single newly parked car in a hurry, then bring all the cars back up to full. One advantage is you can avoid monetary penalties some utilities have for consuming at peak hours.

All of the energy exports from a car are a deduct, so you are not losing money, and it’s programmable in terms of time of day and priority.

One main reason people like electric cars is no more trips to the gas station. The car is charged while you sleep or are at work. They are very convenient.

 

If I had an electric car I would still need gas and diesel for my tractors and lawn mower(s). I live in the country and enjoy my gas/diesel powered items. Don't get me wrong, I like my battery powered hand drill and flashlights though.

 

One idea that was proposed, is a large heavy trailer like a 5th Wheel Camper, will also have a belly-pan battery in it, that will be plugged in to the truck’s battery, and negate the losses, or offer even more range.

 

For sure. The problem will be when fuel infrastructure becomes expensive to run to serve a shrinking market. We can only sell gasoline, as cheaply as we do, because of the massive volume sold.

I don’t think gasoline or diesel will become unavailable, it will just become progressively more expensive to buy it, and you will have to travel further and further to find a station.

Gasoline refining, transportation, vending, and storage, is also a huge social hassle, with multiplied layers of safety risks, bureaucracy, inspections, environmental concerns etc. When it becomes less and less required, the remaining players will be forced to pass the huge financial burden of selling refined gasoline deists vehicle fuels on to then consumers. It will be much more profitable to simply sell crude, or partially refined bunker oil, to the electric utilities. The oil companies may simply transition to being electricity providers, burning their own oil.

Anyways.......we can reconvene this panel in 10 years and see where we are at. My guess: owning a full electric 4X4 pickup will be a normal thing, and we will be thankful for it.

 

I think you will see some very creative biodeisel retrofitting of ICE equipment if the whole "gas is terribly difficult/expensive to obtain" future comes to pass.

 

I'm considering an electric mower next spring. No oil changes and no clogged carbs sounds peachy.

 

I just read there are 121,446 gas stations in the U.S. I don't think in 10 years there will be any less.

 

I think owning a gas car will become an expensive hobby for enthusiasts. Kinda like owning a private airplane. Undoubtably, if you chose to drive a gas car, when everyone else is in an EV, you will pay some sort of pollution tax.

A big change will come where the cities that propose banning ICE within their limits take those initiatives. Then it’s going to be an even bigger hassle to keep grasping at your dedication to the dying technology.