Tacoma -vs Ranger 2019 sales figures...it aint pretty

The Tacoma interior is basically a Camry

 

It's not about "not burning carbon", but what's new, exciting and easier for Western Civilization, imo.

As when any new thing is rolled out, it gives stimulus to the economy.

Old creaking old electric grid is definitely due an overhaul- stimulus.

Once EV is firmly established as the cool new thing with the Facebook crowd, well you know...lol.

As far as "other countries" providing ICE parts- China? Hmmmm...well, let's see how that goes.

 

Me either.

Here's the thing about crude oil:
You can't make just anything you want from it.
That's not how refining works.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_pct_dc_nus_pct_m.htm

Gasoline output is gonna be in the mid 40% range, regardless.
The output is rather less for fuel oil distillates, about 30%. (That's marine fuel, diesel, heating oil, etc).
Jet fuel around 10%.
Then everything else, including lubricants, petrochemical feedstocks, petroleum coke, asphalt, various chemical/industrial uses, etc.

You're not replacing marine fuel for gigantic cargo ships with anything besides nuclear. You just aren't.
You're not replacing jet fuel with bio fuels. The quantities required are too great.
Plus all the other uses vital to industry today.

And you aren't generating the required electricity without fossil fuels, as things stand today.

Natural gas is usually found associated with crude oil.
You gonna leave crude oil in the ground after the expense of developing a field?

Given that crude oil will be refined for the foreseeable future for all the needed products apart from gasoline...
...refine crude oil and you're gonna have gasoline as well. Lots of it.
What are you gonna do with it?

No offense to anyone, but the difficulties of transitioning away from fossil fuels are very often understated.
Vastly understated.
I expect it will happen eventually.

 

From the EIA...

 

Could someone buy an electric vehicle if the production of crude oil ceased to exist?

 

https://www.politico.com/agenda/sto...al-governments-energy-forecasts-so-bad-000111


Part of the problem can be attributed to technical constraints in the way the EIA calculates its baselines, which always assume that the legislative status quo will persist.

 

Start counting the number of ways we depend on fossil fuels right now and you run out of fingers very quickly.

 

Yeah, that's why we used multiple forecasting tools when determining whether to invest half a billion in a new plant and infrastructure lol.

 

2nd Gen.

 

1st Gen.

 

"The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the Government, and I'm here to help. "

 

I love how this has rapidly become another forum that has digressed so far from the OP's intent that we are talking about energy outlook through 2050 for the U.S...

On that note, I find it funny that the percentage of petroleum and "other liquid" consumption cited by the EIA drops one percentage point, but presume volumetrically, our overall demand on fossil fuels will have increased. Other liquids also includes fuels from non-petroleum distillates. In any case, that's good news for solid and photovoltaic applications in the transportation and manufacturing industries. It means the rate at which we begin to employ more renewable energy sources will increase. Who knows, that 35% seems wishy-washy to me at best.

 

We only got a few more days left in
2019, so we gotta blow this thread up!

 

Forecasting for a living sucks. You are never right. It's just a matter of how wrong you are.

No one predicts this shit...

 

Someone once told me a really good geophysicist in the oil industry is right 2% of the time. I'm pretty sure I would just be using a dart board and some voodoo dolls at that point.

 

In the spirit of your signature, this about sums how I now feel about industry forecasts:

 

I'm sure that was true many years ago, but they're way better at locating reserves today.

 

Fuel cell vehicles that run on hydrogen (Toyota Mirai) are another alternative with H2O being the only byproduct. The big issue right now is infrastructure and the fact that you are carrying a highly explosive hydrogen storage tank in the vehicle. Great alternative, but I prefer the simplicity of an all electric vehicle.

 

Yeah, I was probably told that when Motorola Star Tacs were a big deal and star trek TNG was new.

It's changed a ton.