Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

Yep, I missed that. Thanks for clearing it up.

This brings up another topic that I've slightly researched.

What are the drawbacks for enrolling in the 72T program for early 401k withdrawals?

I'm not gonna teach 59.5 yoa, but really want to retire 6 years before that.

 

Nice day in the markets so far...

 

getting my ass handed to me with natural gas, got one more liquidity injection before I have to just sit and wait (as long as that'll take)

 

Yuck.
Wouldn't prices go even lower in spring?
Or is electricity generation from NG enough to balance it out?

 

Lots of NG electrical generation. If it's a hot summer, yep, more NG usage.

 

Man, I thought I made a great move by selling Tesla at $315....

 

You probably did.

 

Well considering it's over 900 now.....

I did the same thing with Apple. Sold when it was at ATH of 230.

Oh well, I'd rather mess up by selling too early at a profit than buying at ATH and loosing.

 

It's 900 now lol

The company has total revenue of -$6.5 billion.

It will be 10 eventually.

This company is the modern version of pets.com (see year 2000 stock charts).

 

Revenue?
From my reading, they had 24.6 billion in revenue for 2019. ....and still lost 862 million. But they're moving in the right direction.
Hell, I don't know.... I don't own any TSLA, but things seem to be looking up for them. I did pre order a Tesla truck for giggles
Anyone who can call this stuff with certainty should be a billionaire. I know I can't.

 

I am just guessing, like everyone else.

I just remember all of the dot com stock charts that looked similar to TSLA. It was all based on “potential.” A lot of people made money, and a lot lost if they held too long.

Another way to put it, has there ever been a parabolic chart move that didn’t go right back down? Not that I’ve seen.

That’s why I said the guy that sold around $300 made a good move.

 

Fair enough.
Although I don't think the pets.com comparison was fair.... I just looked it up and they were 9 mos from IPO to failure? I'd say Tesla's done a bit better than that.
I've changed my mind several times on Musk and Tesla but I will say they seem to show a good bit of resilience. Time will tell I guess.

 

True, that was a low blow. I was just basing it on a similar looking chart.

I know that they may be the biggest, most successful company in the world. There's no reason they can't. I also try to be realistic, there has been 1 Amazon, and thousands of companies that aren't.

Maybe I'm just bitter because I don't have to balls to put money into these speculative plays haha

 

You are right. They've actually been beating earnings which is why they started spiking. TSLA is solely priced based on future potential though.

A great comparison is the big 3 (GM, Ford, Chrysler) who's combined valuation is about 120B while TSLA is valued around 150B right now.

Comparing revenues, TSLA is reporting 25B in 2019 (which is great for them to show ability to be profitable). The Big 3 combined are showing 425B.

So that disparity is solely on potential. TSLA battery tech is next level and they know it, but they can't rest on that forever. They need to crank out more and more. The model Y is extremely promising, and the Cybertruck got them more publicity recently.

As an investor in TSLA, I really wish they came out with a truck that would rival the soon to come electric F150 directly since TSLA had the opportunity to sink ford's electric truck right there, but I'm still hopeful overall.

I am concerned and think they are wildly overvalued right now, but I still think they are trending in the right direction and am happy I own. I've been wrong in the past though.

 

I made money on tesla and sold at 430, geez oh geez look at how much I would've made now.

 

Imagine if you sold last week? lol

I understand where you are coming from, but TSLA is far from the "non Amazon's" as they already have success, but they are also very far from the googles, amazons, and apples of the world. about 10% of the size.

 

My biggest concern is the revenues you posted above (compared to other automakers).

Will they grow into this valuation? Time will tell, but my vote is no, which is why I haven't invested.

I do hold F, which I may get made fun of for, but I think that dividend will be paid for the next 100+ years. Don't care one bit about the share price.

 

that would make sense. I would have assumed that shutting down of coal plants would have also increased demand for NG... and would explain the random spikes in the NG prices in summer months.

 

The biggest chunk of my "serious" money is in VTI and the like.
There's a chunk of money I consider "play" money that I like to speculate with. It wouldn't kill me, or derail any retirement plans, if I were to loose all of that chunk. With that money, I look more at things like market sentiment and momentum than solid financials. Honestly, the whole damn thing (the market) looks to me like a house of cards that could collapse at any minute
I would never hold myself out as an expert, and a quick glance at my trade history would prove that I'm not, but I feel like I'm learning.

 

I hold ford also. No prob with diversity.

Ford will be determined by their electric car market though. As much as people hate to admit it, the time of gas powered vehicles is getting reduced by insane specs of electric cars. Gas trucks aren't going away fully ever, but as gas increases in price, energy gets cheaper, and electric truck stigma reduces, more people will own them. Still intrigued to see a fix for the having to wait to charge vs fill up with gas. Right now for a road trip, I would never take an electric car.

I hate the cybertruck, but look at the specs you can get for 40k. I'll remind you that a 2020 TRD pro is more expensive.

0-60mph in 6 seconds.
250 mile range
6.5' Bed
Towing 7500 lbs
Autopilot
Adaptive suspension

And that is just the base model. It's actually insane what you can get for the cost. Ugly package, but sign of good things to come.

I'm excited to see the metrics on the electric F150.