AZ BS Thread 4²0

Yeah Moto Guzzi's also run engine oil and separate transmission oil for the dry clutch but it runs 75/80 weight oil

 

Good read from AZ State Parks regarding plans for motorized and non-motorized trails:



2020 Trails Plan - Now Available for Public Comment

• TrailsPlan@azstateparks.gov. Feedback will be accepted through March 30, 2020.
• Read the Plan

Dear trail users and land managers:
Your opinion matters when it comes to trail use in Arizona! Arizona State Parks and Trails has released a draft 2020 Trails Plan for public comment after a year of gathering data about the thousands of miles of motorized and non-motorized trails in the state.
More than 9,000 survey responses were collected, guiding this plan’s development with input about motorized or non-motorized trails, how often and how they are used, trails preferences and how land managers could improve trail experiences through their time, money and efforts.
The Trails Plan provides information about trail users, their preferences, opinions and important issues facing recreational trails and off-highway vehicle routes in Arizona. The plan also offers a list of recommendations and priority actions that both trail users and land managers can implement.
You can view the draft 2020 Trails Plan by clicking below. Comments can be sent directly to TrailsPlan@azstateparks.gov. Feedback will be accepted through March 30, 2020.

https://d2umhuunwbec1r.cloudfront.net/gallery/0004/0044/51B32CEB0B87413C8EF2CF1BB547AC19/ASPT - 2020 Trails Plan - DRAFT.pdf

 

we’re all about to turn into zombies. no time for trails!

 

Was at the store just getting stuff for dinner. This is insane. The fear created by the media. Yes it’s a virus and it can kill people. Will it kill you? Odds are 97%-98% not... Could you pass it on to your sick elderly grandma and would it kill her? Maybe...

people need to chill out. I’m not scared of the virus, I’m scared of humanity.

man why the fuck is it toilet paper what everyone wants? Seriously...

 

Im going camping this weekend to get the fuck away from all the crazies. Hopefully when I get back the stock market will be even lower so I can start buying.

 

you coming back.....

 

Fine with me.

 

I was hoping to get a house for cheap after all the old people died off. But then realized I won't be able to without a job due to our economy tanking. So I'll be homeless and wiping my ass with leaves because all the fucking Karen's hoarded the toilet paper.

 

The economy isn't tanking(yet) just the stock market. Unless you work in commercial airlines or cruise lines, then you're fucked. No idea why anyone wants to go on a cruise anyway. Thats an industry that needs to die off with the boomers.

 

So once again, a nice simple project is made needlessly more difficult, mostly by my own hand.

Installed my Total Chaos bed stiffeners this evening and proceeded to break a 10mm bolt, managed to get water and dirt into my a tail lamp, and have spent the evening trying to dry said water.

Anyone ever removed condensation from a tail lamp before? What'd the secret? Been using the blow dryer/box method. Gonna pick this back up this weekend.

Having been on a cruise, I get them. Basically riding your hotel to a destination, everythings organized, no stressing, no planning, just kick back and relax.

But yeah, that's a viral breeding ground.

 

Or a restaurant, anything entertainment, luxury goods etc. But the fed is pumping 1.5 trillion in the next 3 months, nothing to be concerned about.

 

Ah, I don't normally comment on these sorts of things, but the response to this current virus is problematic in two ways. I am attempting to be brief, and the following text doesn't come anywhere close to covering the entire situation, mind you. Also, this is simply my analysis of the situation, though I will say, that out of all of the things that I have learned, and the way in which I solve and understand problems in my day to day job, I have a rather resolute way of doing the uncommon. Pulling back. Looking at the situation from a 1,000 ft view, and treating the system in the manner with which it needs to be treated to be most properly understood.

First, the folks who are creating short term pandemonium through the stripping of basic necessities (seriously, do people think the virus is going to make them shit their pants uncontrollably?) from stores. This is just silly behavior, though it does lend itself to funny/stupid/depressing viral videos of ladies fighting each other in stores.

The second, and far more important, is the perpetuation of outdated information. You see, this virus has an R-nought value (a doubling value) of just 4 days. This is the same phenomena as the old question, "Would you rather have a penny doubled every day for 30 days or $10,000 right now?" Without much thought, or without a thorough grasp of the mathematical prowess of doubling, one would most likely pick the 10 grand in cash, as there is simply no way that a penny doubled every day for thirty days would amount to anything worthwhile. However, basic number crunching on a cheap calculator yields a very different response. It is no big deal when 15 becomes thirty, but just wait until 200,000 becomes ~700,000 in just a single week. The spread of infectious diseases is a well understood phenomena, so much so that they even have a game you can play where you try to kill off the entire planet via diseases!

Just three weeks ago, Italy was a country living life as normal. Now, Northern portions of the country are on literal lock down. Doctors have to choose who receives care and who doesn't, as the hospitals are overwhelmed. Three measly weeks. I can guarantee you that three weeks from today, we will have a very different portrait in front of us. So yes, few cases have been confirmed near where you happen to exist, but the disease cannot be contained in any effective manner. It is literally only a matter of time. People want to treat this (in the words of someone smarter than I am) "As a Coronavirus Blizzard, where in fact it is going to be a long, cold Coronavirus winter." Simply put, people want to wrap up the entire situation into the neat little box shaped around the very initial (and inaccurate) information surrounding the situation, thinking that this is a thing to deal with for a few days, or a week maybe, as opposed to the reality of 6+ months.

The plethora of memes attempting to relate a current outbreak with 'minor' outbreaks of the past, or even the normal flu season, are also problematic. This is a simple form of the Normalcy Bias or Optimism Bias or a form of Inductive Referencing, which is where folks are predisposed to believe that since nothing terribly serious has happened before, nothing serious will happen in the future. You know, I am no economist, but I am familiar with something in the engineering world called a 'first principle'. And one of the first principles of economics is the need to make money! This single idea has driven substantial environmental pollution, the exploitation of human lives, and many, many other things. Yet we have major institutions cancelling or rescheduling things. The NBA and the NHL, to name but two. They don't make money if they don't fill seats with people expecting to see a game. Yet no more games. Even the Olympics was rescheduled, to the tune of 20 BILLION dollars. What?

Also, it ain't just old folks who will be suffering the most. This is based on an initial inaccurate understanding of the situation. The highest grouping of individuals in Italy are immunocompromised people in their 40's. This info is only a single day old. Which is where you need to live if you want to be better suited to understand the swiftly changing situation.

The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy is an excellent, unbiased, educational, resource that can help keep you up to date, if you want. http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/

I should shut up now. I will probably regret putting my analysis into the everlasting ether, as I have learned time and time again that it's probably best to just keep my mouth shut, as I am simply too insignificant to have any form of impact on a situation of this magnitude. But oh well. I have no desire to debate with anyone on the situation, but for some reason, I simply wanted to put my thoughts out into the world.

 

Im no doctor or infectious disease expert either, but I do stand in operating rooms and get called doctor by patients as they are going under anesthesia every day. Surgeons dont seem to care about this. Hospitals dont seem to care about this. Maybe Danny can chime in with his opinion since hes on the front lines. Things are starting to get cancelled and rescheduled. My income is tied to purely elective surgeries and we are just hearing hints of whats to come right now. The Mayo Clinic has cancelled all elective surgeries for patients over the age of 60 until April 15th. Other facilities are likely to follow suit but the general atmosphere in hospitals seems to be one of "its just another sickness that will pass" and I find it hard to believe in a "this is the big one" type of situation when doctors and nurses don't seem to care.

In my opinion there are two trains of thought. Let the spike happen and the people that will die, will die quickly. Flatten the curve with guesstimate levels of prevention like self-quarantine and it will only prolong/worsen the panic, economic effect and death. Funny how people are so worried about their individual liberties around here when they should really be worried about health and hygiene and the general strength of the herd. We dont want government intervention until its something our constitution cant protect us from. Then we're pissed when the government doesnt have an immediate solution.

 

i knew stealing office supplies would pay off!!!!!

 

Can we huff that keyboard cleaner?

 

From a doctor in Italy. Copy and pasted NY Post.

"
An Italian doctor at the heart of the coronavirus outbreak that has placed the country under lockdown has painted a grim picture of the deadly illness — likening it to a “tsunami that has swept us all.”

Dr. Daniele Macchini, who works at the Humanitas Gavazzeni hospital in the northern city of Bergamo, warned in a about the dangers of complacency in the relentless war against the insidious virus.

Italy, where more than 460 people have been killed and 9,172 others infected by the virus, has imposed unprecedented national restrictions on its 60 million inhabitants.

“After much thought about whether and what to write about what is happening to us, I felt that silence was not responsible,” Macchini wrote in his post, as translated by Dr. Silvia Stringhini, an epidemiologist and researcher at the Geneva University’s Institute of Global Health.

“I will therefore try to convey to people far from our reality what we are living in Bergamo in these days of Covid-19 pandemic. I understand the need not to create panic, but when the message of the dangerousness of what is happening does not reach people I shudder,” he said.

In Bergamo, a city of about 122,000 some 30 miles northeast of Milan, 1,245 people have been diagnosed with the coronavirus in one of the country’s worst-affected areas.

“I myself watched with some amazement the reorganization of the entire hospital in the past week, when our current enemy was still in the shadows: the wards slowly ’emptied,’ elective activities were interrupted,” he continued in the chilling post, which was shared more than 29,000 times.

“All this rapid transformation brought an atmosphere of silence and surreal emptiness to the corridors of the hospital that we did not yet understand, waiting for a war that was yet to begin and that many (including me) were not so sure would ever come with such ferocity,” he said.

“I still remember my night call a week ago when I was waiting for the results of a swab. When I think about it, my anxiety over one possible case seems almost ridiculous and unjustified, now that I’ve seen what’s happening. Well, the situation now is dramatic to say the least,” Macchini added.



Describing every available ventilator as “gold,” Macchini said the doctors and nurses working at his side are exhausted.

“I saw the tiredness on faces that didn’t know what it was despite the already exhausting workloads they had. I saw a solidarity of all of us who never failed to go to our internist colleagues to ask, ‘What can I do for you now?’

“Doctors who move beds and transfer patients, who administer therapies instead of nurses. Nurses with tears in their eyes because we can’t save everyone, and the vital parameters of several patients at the same time reveal an already marked destiny.

“There are no more shifts, no more hours. Social life is suspended for us. We no longer see our families for fear of infecting them. Some of us have already become infected despite the protocols,” he said.

Macchini noted that some of his colleagues have become infected themselves and then infected their relatives who “are already struggling between life and death.”

“So be patient, you can’t go to the theater, museums or the gym. Try to have pity on the myriad of old people you could exterminate,” he said.

“I finish by saying that I really don’t understand this war on panic. The only reason I see is mask shortages, but there’s no mask on sale anymore. We don’t have a lot of studies, but is panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this sort?”