Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

Only my opinion, but I think many people have thought this in every correction/bear market/recession. It always works out a few years later, don't see this being any different (if anything, I see this being a blip and not even a real concern).

 

I’m fine with that. Like I said before not my circus not my monkeys, and some people do take it overboard and get into an ideals debate discussion instead of keeping it related to investing.

wonder if my retirements will get back to positive gains today.

 

I think we’re a bit beyond a blip here. But I agree. If it comes to the point where my retirement doesn’t recover, my retirement will be least of my worries as i forage for berries in a poet apocalyptic world.

 

I wouldn't put it beyond a blip unless it gets to 50% or more. Remember late 2018? That was a 20% drop, meant nothing. This is worse than that, but isn't a concern yet. All my opinions, I am sure others may see it differently.

Edit: When I say "blip," I mean, looking at a 20-30 year chart.

 

For me the 2018 "blip" will not really be discussed in terms of markets in 10 more years. This one might end up in text books, be it for history or investing, this is a lesson of global SCM and virus outbreaks, and it's the first in the world of delivery options with Amazon/Grubhub etc. SARS didn't have all this door to door delivery service and restaurant delivery options, and didn't disrupt the global supply chain and tourism industry to this level - also since we are now in an age of global communication even better than when SARS hit.

30 years from now I hope this is more than a blip because I upped my contributions and I hope that takes off giddy-up style once this wave washes over, but I think we're beyond a blip at this point. Not that the markets will destroy themselves and we go into foraging for berries and moss, but this one might be one the next generation reads about and hopefully learns from.

 

If I only had the cojones to sell my truck and throw into the market.

 

When I buy a stock, I expect: there's a good chance it will be down in 5 years, there's a very small chance it will be down in 10 years, there's almost no chance it will be down in 20 years, there's absolutely no chance it will be down in 30 years.

I think people freak out seeing what's happening, but aren't really using the market the way it should be used. If you might need the money for 20 years, it shouldn't go into the market.

I think anyone who held through every recession on record ended up fine. The scare mongering going on in the news won't make me think this is any different.

 

Best headline ever: Coronavirus live updates: Tom Hanks, Rita Wilson released from hospital, oil prices could hit teens

 

Oh, no I agree that this isn't different than the past, hold on tight, down with the ship, etc. But as far as the whole thing - COVID19 as a whole, this is more than a blip like the 2018 blip.

I do have to bite my tongue when people talk about bad time to retire, etc. If you plan to retire within 5 ish years, you should basically be in all cash and bonds and CDs, no more stock market. If you plan to retire within 5 years, this crash should literally not affect you, but people are talking like they need to keep working because of this instead of retiring.

 

That's completely avoidable. Back to what I said, they're using the market wrong. They love the gains, but not the declines? Hasn't it always worked that way though? Up, down, up, up, up, down, up, down, up... typical series of years in the market.

 

I don't disagree with anything you've said other than the fact this this is only a small blip. This be a big'un

Also, this is the best thing our governer has said:
"If the RIPTA bus pulls up, and you see that there are a half dozen people on there, do not get on."

Yeah okay, take the next one 30 minutes later to get to work, show up 30 minutes late and explain to your boss it was because the governor said not to take the bus. I get the restrictions but some of the advice is just coming from people so out of touch it's insane.

Anyway, DOW back in the red. it was nice while it lasted.

 

I don't disagree with anything you've said either, except I guess the blip part (blip so far at least). We went up 30% last year, now 30% down this year. So far it's normal to me. It could definitely get worse though.

Edit: To be fair, I see every correction on record as a blip to a long-term investor.

 

Here is where I think you are wrong. The economy still overall sucked during the stock market boom of recent years. Only a 1-3% growth rate while the stock market shot up. People were confusing the huge gains in the market with a good economy. Really it was corporate malinvestment growing a bubble, they were using free cash to buy back stocks while financing capital projects driven by insanely low interest rates. What the feds doing now is the exact processes that will lead to this again, or it wont work at all. My concern is the market tanking from the highs (going on now) and then staying low for a very long time. If you see what people are saying, they are going right back to the bankers again, that clearly has failed in the past. The only savior here is dividends but we know those could be in jeopardy on some companies.

It's good to be optimistic, but from what I'm seeing the reality is it may not be so optimistic.

I dont think we are going into a depression or anything crazy like that, just want to be clear on that.

 

I agree with this. However, I am not looking at next year or even the next five years. If stocks stay beaten down for five years, that would be awesome for me as a dividend investor.

I think my method of investing is just so different than most that it's hard to have an argument about it. I don't buy low and sell high, I buy periodically, high or low. Buying low is obviously better. I don't intend to ever sell, just try to get my dividend income higher and higher. I look at one number on my giant Spreadsheet: monthly dividend income. No concern with portfolio value.

I do get that if one had a plan to sell shares, they may be screwed for a while. That's actually the main reason I chose the strategy I use. I think any plan that involves selling shares is almost gambling, which I am not really into. I also get that someone's returns may be much higher than mine if they do it right, but I am ok with a 4.5% annual dividend yield on the cash I have contributed to stocks.

 

I'm the same way you are, I have disney stock since I was 9 (I'm 36 now). Out side of needing cash to run the economy in my house, I'm almost thinking of selling some positions now while its "high" and reallocating at the low level where I think this will wallow for a while, increasing the number of shares I could buy near the bottom and earn dividends on.

 

That's how you do it. The old guys who have had XOM and stocks like that for 50+ years are the real winners (as long as they don't get coronavirus).

I think a lot of people expect too much, and get burned that way. If you can be happy with a return that's not 20% every year, it's not that difficult. It's greed that causes most losses in my opinion.

 

Yea it's nice a 600%+ cost basis on those shares!!

Hell I sold my shares of Altria that I bought 2008-2012 and reinvested dividends at the beginning of this at a price "loss" but a gain of 200+% on my money. Not bad!

I'm seeing my accountant tomorrow and discussing how some loss selling ties into my overall tax strategy. Being (former and future) DINKS really gives it to you in the shorts during tax time.

 

I use losses strategically sometimes. You can write off $3,000 per year, and you can carry the difference on until you use it all.

Have you ever calculated the Yield on Cost of the DIS shares? For example, the total current dividend divided by your per share cost basis? That is when things get interesting after that long of a holding period.

 

Yup! I need to see how that ties into my startup costs for a single member LLC and writing off those losses.

I haven't looked at that yeild. And honestly those would be the last to go anyway for that reason and it's a good company with a cult like following that wont go away anytime soon.