Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

I think this has the potential of a FOMO rally like never seen before. The drop is already unprecedented in speed. As soon as the word "vaccine" hits the headlines, this thing might fly. Just the little bit mentioned in the presser today boosted it 6%, wait for the vaccine!

 

That was also in reaction (hey, hey, remember when I said Politics and Finance might overlap I just hope this is allowed) to the gubment saying it needed to be a rush to give citizens "cash". And they'd have a clear picture on how to do that by the end of today, with the goal being within 2 weeks.

There was also news about vaccines moving forward and rushing for human testing. I'm sure the stock in those companies participating have gone up, I just haven't looked at those.

FOMO might happen. We might spike soon, but the market is forward looking - this crash is because the investment opportunities saw all these companies posting flat or negative profits for the next few months, so everyone will pull out of those. Add in the modern day computer trading, and it compounded to the huge drop we see today (well, up to today....today seems to be up, whatever give it an hour). Even with a vaccine, etc. there will still be a lot of companies hurt from a 2 month supply chain halt in China. But it's worse than that, because when things are up and running again, they'll have to prioritize some companies over others to get them running again, so even when everything is back up and operating, there may still be 2 month backlogs in supply chain for some companies.

So vaccine will help both humanitarian and financially, but the market will spike react to that and then level out until companies are able to start posting profits and YOY gains again, which will be a while.

 

This may all be true, but you're talking quarters, maybe years. I am looking out much longer. The vaccine FOMO rally I would expect to be soon (if it ends up happening). But as for supply chains, I was only calling this a blip because in 10, 20, 30 years, it probably will be a small blip.

Some of what I have been posting is pure speculation (a FOMO rally with a vaccine), but some I think is pretty much guaranteed to happen (in 10 years everything will be fine).

 

For the average joe portfolio, yeah. I mean in that instance so was the great depression. For me a blip doesn't get written about in the history books. I agree within 10 years this will be washed, people will remember it but it won't be something they're focusing on still. Hopefully they'll study it though. Hope.



But it looks like my retirement is at least out of negative earnings. For today. Tomorrow is a new day.

 

It is starting to look like some of the speculative high dividend stocks I bought may not survive this. I think I have about $26k at stake in that category (if they all failed completely). I will hold on, see what happens, but I don’t know. I’ll learn a lesson on that one!

I mean, seriously, what should I do? The REIT EPR is down 71% on my cost basis. I don't care about the loss if it rebounds. But anyone know what will happen with companies like this? They own entertainment properties, which are all shut down. I plan to hold and hope for the best, but anyone have opinions on things like this?

 

Agreed.

Not to be blunt, but if this is severely impacting money you need to live off of in the next five years, you weren't positioned properly. Sure, stocks may well make a chunk of your portfolio - but as you near retirement you need to have the near term money in low/no-risk vehicles.

Edit - using the generic version of "you" -- not speaking of anyone in particular.

 

I'd say impatience - which can induce fear - is the kicker.

 

This is one of those times in history that the very wealthy capture a greater portion of the worlds wealth . They are the ones that sell early and buy back at rock bottom . I remember 1987 / 2007/2009 , and it seems no different now . Holding on works for and average return , but big money is made by taking advantage of the times .
Old but mostly in cash for a while now and will not be duped again .

 

Exactly.
I was reading that Buffet has been sitting on a huge pile of cash for a while now. Nobody could understand it and it seemed he was missing out on a lot of gains.
I don't think he's infallible, and people maybe give him too much credit, but I think he subscribed to the theory that the money is made on the buy. For quite a while before this, a lot of stocks were over priced, they were still climbing, but the value wasn't there. The prices weren't supported.
Well we've now returned some value to stock prices and people like him can make their money on the buy.

 

It is going to be interesting to see what WB buys and will buy, in the next couple months . He is probably at a loss for all the best distressed buys available or at least more high interest preferred loans/stock with options he deploys his cash too . He has about 122 billion to play with . It may be a safe bet just to buy BRK.B lol .

 

Can anyone buy brk.b stock?

 

yes.
Select few who can afford the A shares though

 

If the Spanish flu came back, I still couldn’t afford class a stock

 

Boeing is on sale for 69% off.

 

I bet Warren buffet let's this ride out a little longer before he buys in. At these prices were at like a p/e of 19 on s&p. I guess that's last quarter's number at today's prices. Surely this quarter will suck. I see the prices dipping farther when cities start really getting locked down. I know were seeing some companies in the toilet, but I doubt he buys the ones on the verge of bankruptcy. Hes a value investor, not captain save a hoe.

 

I heard were all getting some stimulus checks soon. Anybody know if it has an income limit?

 

It would be wasted on anyone in this thread. It's meant to be spent, most would just end up investing it.

Wife and I were talking about this this morning. Most likely we would be donating it to the food banks or similar. Those places are going to be hit hard.

 

When I heard, my first thought was to throw it in my savings...we dont buy too much under normal circumstances....

 

Menuchin said "obviously folks who make a million dollars a year don't need this stimulus". That is certainly not definitive or even meant to be but broadly says they are not going to be writing Bezos, Bloomfield and Buffett a check for $1000 or whatever. My guess is that they will say the check will be issued to those who complete the census or something similar as a way to track.

 

GM is offering 0% financing for 7 years, that’s crazy!

Edit: Only valid through March 31.