Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

Dang.

Way to be underwater for most of the loan period.

If I can’t pay off a vehicle in four years I’ve set my sights too high.

 

True, but if you look at interest paid on the life of a loan, even at good interest rate, you’d save a lot with this deal. This is free money.

 

Sure. I’d take the deal and set up overpayments to pay it off within my horizon. Zero interest is free money.

I remember a few years ago I was buying a two year old off lease 4Runner. Had financing set up with my credit union. Had to run the Finance Guy Gauntlet. Difficult to be polite when he offered to “make my payment much less” by setting me up with a seven year loan on a two year old vehicle.

Sold that ‘02 4Runner to the sales guy who I bought my ‘17 Taco from. Yes I buy and hold.

 

We're getting a recession that will likely be worse than 2008 and all people can think about is when the sales start on trucks and recliners. I'm sure some thought I was bat shit crazy when I said a realistic floor for the Dow was 18-20k. I wouldn't be surprised if the new floor is 12-15k.

We're going to see record bankruptcies by the end of the 2nd qtr.

Circle your wagons people shit's about to get ugly.

 

Can’t wait for those prices if you’re right!

 

Isn't this market correction period somewhat adjusting for that outside of people just being crazy?

 

The virus was just the pin that popped the bubble, multiple bubbles. The interventions at this point are a moral hazard that will just kick the can down the road. QE is now like the McRib

 

The booms and busts will be much worse.

Our public officials are in a tough spot though. You cant really slam the breaks on the economy and then tell everyone to get bent when they lose their jobs, that would result in not a very good situation for evreyones overall standard of living and longevity of society if you know what I mean.

 

Evreyone knew the bubble was going to pop this year, I think the fed thought it was going to over a few quarters and they can boil the ocean with their "actions". I dont think anyone could have foresaw 2qtrs of market correction in less than a month and unprecedented world wide shut down of commerce. I'm a straight up Austrian economic theory non interventionist, but what else do you do when that happens outside the actions of piss poor economic policy? They need to focus on staving off a potential humanitarian crises, not the virus the actions taken to stop the spread, here and we would be the laughing stock of the world if evreything degrades to that point.

 

The scary part companies, governments and people levered up despite the "booming" economy. There is no rainy day fund.

 

Yea that's nuts and pretty stupid!! I used to work for an airline, my wife still does, and the ammount of stock buybacks they were doing is INSANE! Now if this was a normal cycle where the economy went into a recession and they came asking for a bailout, I would support a get F'd policy, BUT in this case they were probibly for the first time outside of the regulated era on strong financial footings and now the revenues going potentially to zero due to events no one could have foresaw. Shouldn't be punished for that, scolded when this is all done for sure. Same for the other business that will be directly affected which looks like everything but consumer staples, tech and ground logistics.

What a crazy time, witnessing history!!

 

China reports 13 new cases of coronavirus today. So, they take a few weeks off, and the 80,000 that all had it are healed? The math on this whole thing doesn’t make any sense. They should have had another “epidemic” as soon as they returned to work. I seriously think this is just a bad cold.

 

China quarantined a city the size of New York. very early on in this pandemic. They are a dictatorship and can do as they please. I would not argue if you simply had said that you don’t trust the numbers. It is exceedingly careless and foolhardy to suggest that is a “bad cold”.

 

But if just 10 people still had it, shouldn’t it come back full steam now? We can agree to disagree on the bad cold thing, still think that when almost nobody under the age of 80 dies.

 

I wouldn't trust Chinese data

 

I thought this until I started doing research on this virus outside the media to see how this will affect workplace safety and my future income stream (I'm a safety consultant/manager). The medical professionals are legit freaking out over this. Not that it will kill us all, but it affects not only old people, but obese, people with high blood pressure, who smoke and are diabetic. That's like damn near half the population here!! They are worried about blowing up the health care system which sounds like a legit concern for evreyone. The last thing I need is my appendix to burst and I cant get worked on, or break my leg and it's a "come back in a week" situation.

 

I don’t, at all, but it’s pretty tame here based on our data. We are acting like 10 million people died. In 2009 H1N1 killed 12,000 plus in the U.S. and I didn’t even know it existed at the time.

 

I've been watching the south korean data, it looks like the rest of the world is as well. I did hear the chinese have been surprisingly open with shareing their medical information and what they have learned about this and how to treat it.

 

We also barely have any test kits. Theres a good video on this data from the Khan academy on youtube. They go into the chinese data and the rate of spread, it really helps put some logical perspective around this outside the media hype.

I was the biggest skeptic/people are paranoid until i turned off the news and started watching and reading information from the experts on this.
https://youtu.be/mCa0JXEwDEk
Good daily videos on the topic, interesting stuff if you are a science nerd
https://youtu.be/1vZDVbqRhyM

 

”CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.”

I'm not going to pretend that I know anything about this virus because I don't. But the numbers I'm hearing don't seem to support the hysteria.