Social D I S T A N C I N G

At least its not Teletubbies.

 

what are the sources to this statement? heres the CDC statement on common flu deaths 2019/2020 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

 

Agree.

 

COVID Communicability: https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/27/2/taaa021/5735319
Influenza Communicability: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25186370
COVID Lethality: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32146445
Influenza Lethality: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html


Do the math, or refute those sources if you'd like.

 

well first off your 1st link from the International travel Society (source) compares the Coronavirus to the SARs virus not the common flu, in your statement you mentioned Coronavirus is 20x more deadly than the Comon flu so based on your math and analysis there would be 110,000 deaths from the Coronavirus since the CDC has a death rate of 55,000 dead from common flu (USA), on the high end.

 

I don’t disagree with the math, but like I said before I think he number of cases is way higher due to lack of testing.
I’m no doctor, but I would put money on if we tested the entire US the number of cases would be in the millions.

 

the real comparison is the DEATH rate of Coronavirus vs. Common flu in which we have the hard numbers on, you wont be tested if your already dead,

 

Read. The. Studies.

Communicability: R0 communicability for COVID, link 1, 3.29 average, 2.79 median, all data between 1.4 and 6.49. R0 for seasonal Flu, link 2, 1.28.
So, I was wrong on the magnitudes. It is between 1.1x and 5.1x as communicable.

Lethality: Estimated CFR (case fatality rate) for COVID in Italy and China, the 2 hardest hit countries: 2.3%, identical between both countries, link 3. Estimated CFR for seasonal flu, 0.096% link 4.

2.3%/.096%=23.96x as deadly.

 

death rate in the USA, Coronavirus vs. Common flu= now compare= the real story

 

Again I don’t think you understand what I’m saying. They are basing their numbers on bad data. Additionally there are 4x as many smokers in China and 2x smokers in Italy, which is also the second oldest country.

 

good point!

 

I hope you're right. This situation could use some data saying things are better than we think. I'm curious as to why you think the data is bad though, it's based on cases elsewhere due to the lack of data here.

You don't understand the term rate in a scientific context do you?

Rate=x per y.

Death rate in a medical context=Deaths per hundred cases=Case Fatality rate.

 

I think the issue is that Covid-19 is multiplying faster than the flu has. In Alberta alone, a province in Canada with a much smaller population density than the average US city the cases go up between 50% and 100% every single day. That's a huge amount of population affected IF it continues to multiply. At this rate it can go from 100 cases to 13,000 cases in a matter of 11 days with only a 50% increase in positive cases. Imagine how that looks if it was say 30 days, 60 days, imagine how that number looks if it's a 100% increase. The numbers are staggering.

This is why social distancing, washing your hands, accessing services only if absolutely required is very important right now. It may not affect younger, healthier people but what if you didn't know you had covid-19 and you passed it on to your grandparents or parents. What if you passed it on to a young person with a heart condition or compromised immune system or even asthma?

 

I am sure this didn't help their cause...

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1224661041495212032?lang=en

 

Yup, this is the scariest part. The communicability rate is staggering compared to influenza.

 

It took days of lockdown to level off the number of new cases in Italy. If they back off on their mitigation, it'll jump right up again. Until we build up some immunity and get a vaccine, this is going to be a very bumpy ride.

 

I was supposed to go to dive school, but I was “too useful to let go for 6 weeks”. Still bitter.

 

Some context into this before some of you get all butthurt. The Italians were trying not to piss off China as some workers actually travel to N. Italy to work in the leather factories there. The Mayor was trying to break the stigma of the US ceasing travel to and from beer flu hot spots in China.

 

dead is dead, we have the hard numbers, now compare it to the common flu

 

@CoronaVirus