Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

I know, but everyone knows the stock market crashes about every 10 years. It shouldn’t be a surprise (2000, 2009, 2020, again in about 10 years, then again..) Everyone has to plan for that.

 

I'm 62 and retired. Dad lived till 92 so that means I could have another 30 years or more. Prior to this meltdown I was about 40/60 bond to equity. At 50/50 I'll look at increasing the risk equation. For me it's all cold hard calculations/math. You lose if emotions become involved.

 

A few weeks ago the majority of people were ready to breakout their Dow 30k hat thinking nothing could go wrong.

 

I knew this would come sooner or later. Any long term chart made it look pretty obvious. As with every other time, you know what happens next, and this time isn’t different.

 

My next limit order fires ~ S&P 2000 (~ VTI $100). In some ways I hope it doesn't get there, and in others I do. I have conflicting feelings about this buying opportunity.

 

Those are the numbers I'm thinking we will hit.

 

Here's a story about how Buffett "helped" Williams Co. when I was there during the Enron debacle lol. I think the loan was at 25%, totally secured.

I'm a Buffett fan BTW, not a hater.

https://money.cnn.com/2002/08/01/news/companies/williams_buffett/

 

Something I’m having a hard time understanding is everyone’s obsession with getting tested. If you’re sick right now, stay home. Regardless of what you have, just stay home until you’re better.

 

Hope for warmer weather, but it doesn't get warm here until about the end of May

 

Unless you die.

Edit: not intended to be funny. That is the quandary. People are scared AF. For good reason.

 

I feel fine and I'm scared AF.

 

That is kind of my point. There’s no known cure for this, it is treated symptomatically. If you are that sick, pandemic or not, you need to go to the hospital.

 

Sorry, I thought you were suggesting people should just ride it out at home.

 

you plan retirement the whole time until the date. After that date take the down swing. You should be in basically all cash and don’t second guess. It was 40 years of planning to get there don’t throw it away on a whim. Just hang tight and live as you planned to.

 

Its an odd situation.

Most people have never had the flu. Yes we have caught a nasty bug, but it is nothing compared to the true flue.

If you get the flue, your ass is kicked for a month. A 2 week cold is nothing.

Non of us really have a real idea what this virus will do to us. We compare it to a nasty cold, and that is not even close how bad it will kick your ass, let alone kill you.

 

Testing will drop down the death rate and have better tracking to see where we are at on the curve. The more people test, the more data they have, the closer we get to ending this shit show.

 

This one is definitely different. Some people are killed, others have no symptoms. There aren’t many illnesses like that. I’ve had mono, pneumonia, and tonsillitis, and I felt like I was going to die all 3 times. But that’s what those do to you. This new virus is strange.

 

I'm scared of the long lasting aftermath of chucking a stick in the spokes of the world economy.

As nasty as this virus is, you still have a higher probability of getting killed driving to and from the grocery or due to an accident in your house while quarantined.

 

My prediction . Limit down at the open , then lower after the pause .Then on hopes of an agreement on aid package to small biz, , airlines etc. , a rebound back to S&P 2350 . Time to sell at that time because lower until peak of virus in May ? . Like said earlier look for S&P 2000 as the next low with retests etc.. After that 1400 then then 735 if hope is lost . Not wanting to be Mr. doom and gloom but that is where the charts point to .

 

What’s your prediction for 10 years from now?