Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

You aren’t wrong. I’ll wait to see how we handle the health crisis. Things could still get much worse

 

Agreed, not real confident this gain is going to last - I suspect we'll see some more down days before we're done.

 

Unprecedented haltage. But numbers are not unexpected. If this number just came out of nowhere.....

I kinda sorta knew the crap would not stay in China. Not that I am any kind of genius. I am a regular everyday clown. But I had some great run ups in REITs and such. I sold all my STOR. Half my MAIN. And others.

Plus I bought SRTY, SQQQ and TAIL

First mistake kinda sorta was buying back in too soon. But if we think tops are tough, bottoms are tougher IMHO. Some of this is still in the red, now a lot isn't.

Gambling? Yeah I guess.

 

OH and I am sure it will get worse. This PM, Friday, the weekend. I cannot say when exactly. But it will.

 

I don't think we're done yet. We may currently be on a tear, but I think it will fade away as companies start turning in numbers. There's too many unknown metrics at this point and everything points to those metrics being shit. I'm looking at the bigger picture and the Fed and the government can't try and buy everything, some are going to fail.

The stimulus package is just going to create a bunch of whelps, some are not going back to work and it insures that we'll have a change next fall towards more of the same, but on a forever basis.

 

I agree with you here. Similar to the last crash, nobody knew where the bottom was going to be. This could go a lot lower. I am just saying, if you started buying now, into the crash, and into the upswing, you will end up happy that you did it in a decade. I am really just advocating to not be afraid to buy now, when it's historically the best time to buy.

 

I’m not worried. I saved a lot of cash over the years just getting dust on it waiting to buy in at a time like this. I have many moons before I will need the returns so I am not going to panic. I kicked myself so many times after 2008 that I swore I would never pass up another opportunity like this.

 

That because unemployment benefits dont pay your full wages. Agree or disagree with the stimulus, but the idea is to help cover that gap with the assumption many of the jobs will return down the road. Just a bridge to get people through until that time. We will see if it works.

 

The part that's nuts is the scope of the bonus unemployment benefits $600 a week and the idea that we can give bridge loans to companies to keep people employed that they may not have a use for at this time.

We're basically giving those companies a junkie habit. It will feel good to get, but in the long run who knows what the outcome will be. It may render them uncompetitive in the long tun. This is no longer capitalism

 

I couldn't agree more. It may be hard to stop these stimulus checks once they start. What if they go on for a month, 2 months... people on month 3 who may still need it will demand it. I don't agree with it at all. As for unemployment, we pay for that as tax payers, so that part is fine with me. We can't let it get abused of course, it needs to play the role it was intended for and nothing more.

 

I venture to say that a number of the filers were of the part time McJob variety and the $600 plus regular unemployment benefits is going to put them on top of what they were already making.

The people that crafted this are not stupid they know that money will get dropped right into the system right away. It will be a junkie high for 4 months of stupid consumption by mostly broke people before cratering.

 

That’s the part that gets me. Any individual financial advisor will tell you to keep enough “savings” to cover your salary for a period of time. But companies don’t practice this strategy. If they set enough aside for unforeseen events they wouldn’t need the bailouts.

 

They're busy buying back shares with all of it, then probably some more with leverage. A true capitalist economy would let them fail, but we aren't one anymore.

 

pretty sure it’s up to $600, not $600 regardless. As in, if you aren’t making a total of $1000 a week, you only get enough benefit to cover your original pay.

 

The last decade of the bull run was fueled by stock buy backs so it's not like corporate America has it's stuff together. We now have Boeing etc out begging for spare change before they start shooting hostages.

 

It’s very possible, but the idea is someone making around 1000 a week, 600 additional will bring their total back to around that 1000 they were making. Most states provide under 50%, some under 30% I believe. Again, not saying I agree with the stimulus, but I understand the thought. Be interesting to see where things stand in 6 months.

 

The best time to buy was yesterday, if the goal is long term returns. It will always be "yesterday", read that recently.

This is also because this is a temporary stopage, in hopes. The hope/outlook right now is that in a month, 2 months time, all those unemployed go back in and do the same job. This isn't capitalism, but we haven't been truly capitalist in the US in....I don't know how long.

I thought the stimulus checks were a one off and then unemployment bennies and whatnot were a longer-term (still short term overall) thing.

careful now, don't get too political

I don't disagree, depends where we're at in 3 months though. If we're still shuttered down, or even only running reduced, we're screwed. If we're back to "normal" in 3-4 months, then the impact of that won't be as great. If we're still shut down, oh yeah things will be real bad at the end of Q2. Nobody is expecting a good Q2, and if we're still shuttered, Q3 is going to be lay-off haven and as you're saying, just an absolute crater. I don't think we'll still be shuttered/bunkered down that long though, so hopefully it won't impact as much.

 

Accord to what i've read on CNN they tried to cap the total benefits at a 100% of the workers wages, but it didn't pass. It's $600, but I could be wrong

 

Okay I actually have a dumb question to ask. So I tossed up a comparison, out of curiosity in Betterment, to 100% bonds, considering moving E-Fund to that. Now, it makes sense, RI is around 2% YOY, until this happened. And now it's showing ROI for bonds can be negative depending on timeframe (MOM was negative). So I'm curious, I thought investing in bonds would always be positive, just a lower ROI than the market (but less volatile, etc). Is the negative assuming an admin fee from Betterment or is there an actual way that ROI can be negative here?

 

Yea I’m not sure on it either, but I have less of an issue with the 600 for unemployment than the money to the big corporations. I can see scenarios where people might be 6 months into their first job, maybe trying to save, pay student loans and apartment rent. Keep them on their feet and they should be back earning and paying taxes in 6 months if all goes perfectly. Like anything else, the system will be abused by many others, but trying to rectify that is a different subject all together