Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

Eh, I’m not ready to throttle back on. Still seeing numbers and impact in my daily life climb. I suspect we will see substantially more serious cases soon. When many hospitals are over run I wouldn’t be surprised to see it dip again.

shitstorms may go city to city and not nation-wide at once. Like New York peaks in a week and then to LA. But at this time I’m not convinced it’s all in yet.

 

It’s just not true. But you are entitled to your opinion

 

It’s always bad when people get sick, and of course when they die.

I am just using logic and comparing numbers, I am taking the emotion out of it.

The high end of the average flu season is 650,000 deaths worldwide annually.

Why would we view this differently when it’s all said and done, and a statistic at that point?

 

because flu is typically .01% fatality. This is totally unknown maybe as high as 1%. No Herd immunity meaning that everyone exposed will get it and spread to every person it touches. In my area we have so far been minimally infected and the deaths and hospitalizations are way higher than we ever see for flu. It’s rare in the US to see hospitals overrun with flu victims. This appears to be more than capable of causing that.

 

Because the flu doesn’t shut down the economy and put people out of work. There is no vaccine, and best estimates, if we do a great job,are 100k U.S. deaths. Worst flu season in the last 50 years was 80k in the U.S. we could see twice that number, imagine the toll had we kept going business as usual. Hospitals can’t keep up as it is. It’s not the same, and it’s foolish to say it is. When it’s all said and done, things will ramp back up, and hopefully it doesn’t look bad historically. But that will be because of the measures taken to stop it, not because it’s “just like the flu”

 

I understand what’s going on. I told my parents that if I were them, I’d stay home for a while because of their age. I’m not heartless, but this is an investing thread, and I’m looking at the numbers we’ll be looking back at in a few years. It probably won’t be much worse than a flu season.

 

It’s not the plague, everything will be fine soon.

 

For the purpose of this thread, yes, it created a nice buying opportunity I’ve been trying to take advantage of

 

There you go. I am not hoping for anyone’s grandma to die. I am just looking at the numbers, and how bad this really is for the economy. So far, it has been very bad, but I see it getting better sooner than later. I got to buy some when it was way down, but not nearly as much as I’d have liked.

 

So the real question is will there be something that makes the markets take another sharp dive before they trend up, or will they just trade slightly up or down for a bit before making the climb? Anyone with a guarantee, let the rest of us know
I still have some money sitting on the sidelines

 

I get what you saying. And with all the measures we have taken it likely will be not that bad statistically speaking with deaths. We will never know what it would be like with out slamming the E-brake. Investing wise... are we out of the woods? Maybe i would say odds are that we are close. Maybe a couple of weeks and we might be on the downslope. Until a bit of time passes personally I won’t be ready to go all in.

 

I am averaging in as much as I can justify. You never know, we may have another 30% to go, or the correction may be over. I just see it as better prices now than a month ago, and that’s a good thing. You don’t want to miss it by waiting for a drop that never comes!

 

I agree, I’ve been buying, as I see it the same, cheaper than it was, but keeping some in the event there is another “sale”. It’s anybody’s guess at this point, but I see more chance for a drop than any quick jump up. I saw vaccine testing is expected in September, so can’t count on any bump from that at the moment.

 

If we can test and get accurate results faster, we can treat faster and reduce fatalities faster and free up supplies/personnel quicker. That will be good news that the market will probably react to. Getting a vaccine to prevent this is another step and could be the final piece to getting back to normal. It won't really be normal as some companies are going to go out of business and result in higher unemployment. Is the rapid test and results the first step? We shall see. I just want the golf course to open back up so I can play some golf!

 

some of ours are since people can “exercise” and being limited to a 4-some. They’re also spreading the tee times out more to prevent overlap on holes.

 

there’s also a level of people being in hospital with this new virus that don’t need to be there, but them being held at the hospital contains it. People who don’t need any sort of life support, breathing aids, etc. but since they have it they have to stay at the hospital. Where as the normal flu people can go home and R&R there instead.

 

My crystal ball states this is going to last alot longer than people are thinking. US reacted late to this pandemic, we have already doubled China cases and the slope of the curve is bad. More deaths will sadly follow. Once we get over the hump social distancing will still have to continue to avoid a spike in cases until we have a vaccine or 60-80% of the population gets it. This is the part that will drive stocks lower in late Q2 IMO. Calling this the flu is irresponsible in my opinion, for both our public and economic health.

Current stats:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

 

I never claimed to be responsible

 

I don’t have a “crystal ball” but am with you 100% that making reckless and dangerous statements regarding this just being a flu is foolhardy. The death toll will likely include members of the families on this forum and certainly has already affected the portfolios of those in this thread.

 

How do my comments, a random internet poster, affect anything whatsoever? It’s just an opinion.