What are you paying for 2020 Tacomas?

I have been reading through the Covid lockdown posts to this thread. I have been thinking about getting a '20 TRD Offroad or SR5 (as long as it is 4X4 V6). If the Offroad price is more than 5 grand>than the SR5 I will get the SR5 since for my purposes I am not willing to pay that much for a rear locker which I can just have ECGS install later (I live near them).

I am an economist by trade and all I can tell you is what I am going to do: wait and then offer to pay cash. I am not evening to try to start cracking the nut for several months. I bet the 18% price cut number being talked about earlier in this thread will be in the rear view mirror by July as the full extent of the economic carnage becomes apparent. And anyone offering to just write a check will probably have a lot of leverage.

 

Good insight ... I don't know the economics of a dealership but I would think they are really just paying a "hold" fee on the vehicle on the lot vs the entire price from Toyota, so I don't think all-cash deals are as important. The key is what you mentioned about the "economic carnage"

1.) "Economic carnage" - really would like to get more insight into what you think this would look like. I have no idea, but just know its not good.
2.) Whether Toyota HQ will reduce their holding fee (even if thats what they do). I can't pinpoint the source, but I thought it was less than 400 dollars a month per vehicle.
3.) The supply they have x cost to just hold the vehicle ( since the factory closed, it won't be increasing)

I honestly don't think a dealership will get to the point where they would sell for a loss .. maybe breakeven (whatever that is). I feel like Toyota HQ is going to put plans in place for a slow 2020 and early 2021 which includes support for dealers that are holding their vehicles.

So with all that ... I have no idea ..lol. I'm probably going to end up purchasing one over the next few weeks just because I'm looking for something specific.

 

There is news that Toyota will restart plants on May 4th.

 

I was just reading an article on that. Looks like manufactures (including Tesla) are shooting for May reopening. Analyst expect them to ramp up to 50% capacity due to supply chain/demand and keep it that way for the next quarter. Some manufactures like GM (some of their factors are making face mask now) are saying its too soon so as with most things, sounds like a decision will probably be made over the next week as we get close to May 4.

 

Interesting comment. Appreciate hearing how you are thinking about this from the perspective of an economist. A few quick comments as food for thought / discussion.

First, I was in the exact same boat as you -- looking at SR5 versus TRD Offroad. Got good advice and guidance here that for the vast majority of the driving that I will do, the SR5 would be perfect and I could upgrade the shocks, etc. later at may own pace. Decided to pull the trigger on the TRD Offroad because of two factors: a) The delta was pretty small ($1,500-ish) and b) I don't have access to the kinds of good after market / mechanics that you do. I am in NY and we just don't have the depth of great shops that do this work that seem to be all over the West, especially CA. I pick it up tomorrow morning (very pleased with the deal).

Second, I think prices for new cars will not drop as much as everyone expects due to two factors: a) There are always buyers for Tacomas and demand is pretty steady and b) Toyota will manage inventory / production keeping supply low and demand high. This has been a great discussion board and I have learned a lot. Seems like right now things are all over the place and the evidence is anecdotal at best. The dealer I worked with was very helpful (of course it is 90 miles away from where I live but worth the trip) -- they told me inventory is low and even when the factory restarts they see supply chain shortages keeping supply low for the foreseeable future. Could be right -- might not be. But a data point to consider.

Third, cash is no longer king. There is a lot of evidence that since dealers make their money on financing cash is not the magic card that it once was. With money being plentiful and interest rates close to zero dealers might be able and willing to sit on inventory.

No argument here ... might be worth considering.

 

Good points and aligns to my thought process as well. I do think it'll be more discounts over the next 2 months if you're not picking about options/features.

 

I'd say those people are full of sh*t, thats over 18% off MSRP. People inflate sh*t all the time. As you can see from this thread, many of us repeat tacoma buyers, 10% off MSRP is the norm, 12-15% you did good. There is a reason they hold resale.

 

A good friend went to buy a 4Runner and was looking for a steep price discount. The dealer is a personal friend of his and told him I will give you the best price I can but from a business model perspective you don't see steep drops in prices on 4Runners because, in general, Toyota sells what they make and there is steady constant demand. He pointed out that it is a $40K asset and with interest rates being zero his carrying costs were pretty minor. Message was they could afford to carry the inventory for a reasonable period of time and if supply remains managed and low they will make it up when things open up again -- even if that is six months. Anecdotal -- yes. But I found it interesting.

 

Yes long time repeat TFS/tacoma buyer, you can't combine incentives, you can combine the miltary rebate though with a special APR but not the big one.

 

PRICE CHECK PLEASE: 2020 Tacoma Limited

Looking at dealers within 300 miles of where I'm at in New York State. MSRP of the configuration I'm after is $44,032. I have firm offers for my trade from multiple dealers at ~ $14,000. Even though approved for 0%, I will likely take the $1750 rebate and 2% financing via Toyota, and put down an additional 5k cash.

It has been difficult to get firm responses, but this is one:

Net price: $41,442
Rebate: $2250
Adjusted Price: $38,072
Total Purchase: $39,192

I guess the difference between adjusted price and purchase price is the add-on junk that the salesman has told me cannot be removed (bed cover - $650, all weather mats $250, bed light $150). I assume those add-ons could be removed if I get to someone higher along the sales chain? Plan to replace with aftermarket versions anyway.

Would appreciate any thoughts here.

 

Agree with you 100%. Based on our interactions here, and your general discount range, I was able to get 13.5% off a TRD OR -- only because I couldn't find an SR5. I have a sense that they couldn't do more than that ... but they worked with me on my trade, a few accessories, etc.

I think you are right. If we were to plot all of the data on a graph the range would be 8% to 16% and it would be very rare or unusual for any Tacoma deal, absent some crazy circumstances, to fall outside of that range -- at least on the 15% side. If you look at the bottom of True Car they also share this data. Not sure how reliable that data is but is falls in line with the range you are suggesting.

 

Yep, I get everyone wants to feel like they got the best deal / didnt lose money, but 12 tacomas in you get an idea of where the bottom is. The rebates and incentives are great right now, so most people are scoring closer to 15% when you factor in the rebate, but you have to remember the dealer makes that back. Some of us who bought prior to the rebates were closer to 12-13% without as well. Either way you slice it, I call B.S. on multiple people claiming to have gotten $8k or 18% off MSRP even in this enviornment.

Congrats on the new ride!

 

Pic or it didn't happen .

 

Pretty much what I was getting at, people make sh*t up all the time to make themselves feel better, etc. Dealer would have lost on that deal, hold back and all.

 

An update: I emailed my dealer and they said, "Unfortunately, the rebates used are only good for the day you sign the paperwork. Toyota never gives us a warning as to what rebates and incentives are available."

 

Ok, let me try to offer an omnibus answer (e.g. some folks asked for my sense of what is going to happen economically). But first a preliminary:

I already have an 2016 SR5 4X4 V6. I upgraded shocks to ARB 2.5" bypass from and rear and threw on Dakars, SCS Ray 10s, Nitto Ridge Grapplers, Diamondback, armor and as soon as the dust settles ECGS will put in a rear locker. I could just repeat that process and all but the locker part I would have to do with a TRD Offroad anyway (hence my price rule). That said this might all be overkill. I drive the worst trails I can find in the NC and VA mountains and I have never ever had to use 4WD. Just air down those Ridge Grapplers and I was GTG

1. Per cash, I am the least sure about how much leverage that will buy me. But when I bought my truck spring '18 that actually got me some mileage on price. Again, we'll see. Many things change. I do understand that. But if, for example, we start having problems with interbank lending (a real possibility) cash will buy a ton of leverage.

2. Per the economy, first the "take me with a grain of salt" joke: economists have successfully predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions. That said I have never seen data as bad as I am seeing now. We are going to have a recession. But there are two elements to a recession for our purposes: depth and duration. The depth is already going to be real bad. Worse than 2008 in all likelihood. The duration is uncertain but I remain pretty bearish on 2020. I dont see a really fast "V" basically because I think a bunch of the damage that has already happened is so bad.

Much depends on how the lockdown proceeds. We are not going have long (e.g. 12-18 months) or many repeated lockdowns. 100% we won't. The reason I am confident of this is that the state and local governments will be in financial collapse by that point (this is already happening). There will no enforcement capacity. Even businesses will just do what they want (I call this the "Southern Italy" scenario). I also think time is on the protestors side: as the economic damage mounts their ranks will swell.

There is a group that wants us to stay locked down until experts feel we are "safe". I am not political scientist but my guess is that is going to wear thin very quick (we never agreed to sign our entire fate or decisions about the balance between freedom vs safety over to unelected "experts"). But maybe I am wrong about that. What I am not wrong about is that if we shut many months more (say 3-4 months more) we will be facing a non-trivial probability of something worse than the Great Depression and at that point the damage to the financial system will be such that we will likely be looking at a long duration event. Oh and in the worst irony of all the attempt to save the health care system will have collapsed it.

TL,DR version: the costs are already immense and will rapidly grow stunning and unmanageable.

I know some have argued Toyotas always sell. Yes, under normal macro conditions they do. Under some real possible outcomes at this point they won't. Per the the argument this is not Toyota's first rodeo, yes it actually is. None of us have ever been through something quite like what is happening now. Finally, the "not our busines model" argument is just about psychology catching up with reality.

If the financial markets start to encounter real problems (and they will soon if we maintain our present posture) cash will be king gents.

We'll see. There is a reason I am waiting a few months.

Edit: Here is another pro-tip: there may be serious food disruptions. The probability is high enough that you should be taking steps to insulate yourself from big disruptions and price shocks. There is a also a non-trivial probability of serious security problems this summer (unrest, riots, crime wave). Similar advice obtains for that.

Edit 2: In no sense am I trying to be dismissive of what others have said here, but I just think we do the best by ourselves and our families by facing reality in its full ugliness.

 

From what I've seen/read on buyer's guides lately, they say to not even bring up the "paying cash" aspect until you have a firm number. As you said, they make money on financing, so if you say you are going to pay cash they might not be as apt to give you as good of a deal knowing they aren't going to make anything additional on the back end. It might even not be a bad idea to hint that you might finance with them, get a number set on paper, and then spring the cash on them. Or just go ahead with financing to get a better price and then pay the entire thing off the first month, if that's what you are set on doing.

You might be able to argue the mats and bed lights, but the tonneau bed cover is actually part of the truck from the factory. If you go through the build tool on Toyota's site you'll see it is an option like the Premium and Technology packages and such, not an accessory like the other stuff. So they can't just pull it off without also replacing the bed rails and possibly a couple other things. If you really don't want the OEM tonneau and are set on an aftermarket one, I'd highly recommend saving yourself the headache and just buy a truck without the tonneau from the factory.

 

Good to know. I've got an appointment in a few hours to go check out a TRD OR 6MT. Haven't even really started talking price with the guy (need to make sure my wife likes driving it), but MSRP is juuuuuust above $40,000, and it's already listed on their site at $36,450. Then there's the 0% APR financing. I honestly feel like it's a great deal already, so I won't push for too much more. See how close he can get me to $34k, probably. Or if he can throw in some of the accessories I'll want to put on.


I honestly never thought I'd be looking at a new vehicle in my entire life (I've always bought used German things with 200k miles or more), but the insulation from depreciation and this crazy financing make it feel like a no-brainer, since I'd like to keep the truck for at least 10 years. Hopefully they'll bury me in the thing.

 

Trading my 2018 TRD Sport with premium/tech package and a manual transmission for a 2020 OFFROAD, with premium/advance tech, and a manual transmission of course. Out the door after tax, tags, and all fees 41525. They gave me full payoff for my current Taco at 28095, I feel like it’s a solid deal, sticker was just under 45. I couldn’t pass up the 0 percent for 60 months and no payments for 90 days. I didn’t purchase any extended warranty with my current truck but I’m getting rid of it an 32000 miles, thought about getting it with the new one but was wondering what people are getting the dealers down to on them.

 

I'm sure that advertised price is factoring in the rebate, you can't do both financing and rebate. If you are looking to get the 0% I would shoot for $35-36k range before TTL, if you are looking to score the rebate (remember dealer gets this money back from Toyota) I would shoot for 34-35k range before TTL.