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Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

Discussion in 'Stocks & Investments' started by ThunderOne, Feb 1, 2018.

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  1. Jun 2, 2020 at 12:02 PM
    #12381
    ThunderOne

    #12381
    ThunderOne [OP] Well-Known Member

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    I remember learning in Finance 301 that IPOs consistently underperform the markets in the first year, then they loosely follow the general market after that.
     
    ThunderOne, Jun 2, 2020
    #12381
  2. Jun 2, 2020 at 12:06 PM
    #12382
    mattgecko

    #12382
    mattgecko The LED Lighting Guy. MattGeckoLEDs.com

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    I learned that one, bought at 4.24 yesterday and sold 4.72 this morning. Jumped out a little to earlier but made a great 1 day profit.
     
    mattgecko, Jun 2, 2020
    #12382
    Iwilltaco and opentibfib like this.
  3. Jun 2, 2020 at 12:10 PM
    #12383
    Beef Nachos

    #12383
    Beef Nachos Here for a good time, not a long time

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    $38.50 in the hopes it skyrockets when sports come back :(
     
    Beef Nachos, Jun 2, 2020
    #12383
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  4. Jun 2, 2020 at 12:13 PM
    #12384
    Iwilltaco

    #12384
    Iwilltaco Well-Known Member

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    @kairo’s guest house having a water with @not_nick
    Under development
    I like it, especially if you make good money
     
    Iwilltaco, Jun 2, 2020
    #12384
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  5. Jun 2, 2020 at 12:16 PM
    #12385
    gpb

    #12385
    gpb Well-Known Member

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    For a bit. Yet even if you got in at 45 eight years ago, a 5x gain in eight years isn't too awful.

    upload_2020-6-2_15-16-18.jpg
     
    gpb, Jun 2, 2020
    #12385
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  6. Jun 2, 2020 at 12:17 PM
    #12386
    TreeFortRichard

    #12386
    TreeFortRichard Barcelona Red is the best red...

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    So I was discussing $NAIL at work and how the 3x ETF works and it's not possible for it to return to $90 when the shares recover, because they are recovering too fast to take advantage of the 3x leverage. My math has it maxing out at around $40
    Here is why I believe the maximum possible upside is a price of close to $40. The reason? The underlying shares have recovered too damn fast. Because the leverage is 3x the daily return, you get a cumulative benefit for each + day and a 3x negative for a negative day. Well, the underlying assets have recovered about 5/6th of their precovid value. For example DHI Was $61 and is now $55. DHI represents 8.71% of NAIL's return. If DHI Gapped tomorrow straight to $61, a $5 gain in 1 day then $NAIL would benefit 0.0871*(3x5)=a pure increase of $1.3065 for $NAIL. If it took 2 days for that recovery it would be 2x the 3x benefit. It took from 2/11/19 to 11/25/19 to go from $40 to $55. Over that time NAIL went from $36 to $71. This 2x of $NAIL is reflected in the same gap price jump from 4/24 to 6/2 DHI Went from 40 to 55 and NAIL went from $14 to $28. There simply aren't enough + recovery days (think of compound interest) to get this asset to $90 in this rapid of a recovery. I have the actual ceiling coming in just shy of $40 maximum price once the underlying assets recover.....
    This is great news if you bought at $10 and want a 4x bagger...

    This is just what I worked out on an excel spreadsheet...plugging and chugging with # of intervals and price increases...
     
    TreeFortRichard, Jun 2, 2020
    #12386
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  7. Jun 2, 2020 at 12:18 PM
    #12387
    rmepilot

    #12387
    rmepilot Well-Known Member

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    Soooo, what about a cap for NRGU?

    I'm thinking $35 off the cuff and no spreadsheet.
     
    rmepilot, Jun 2, 2020
    #12387
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  8. Jun 2, 2020 at 12:23 PM
    #12388
    pdaddy

    #12388
    pdaddy WeLl-KnOwN mEmBeR

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    Ok I sold ty
     
    pdaddy, Jun 2, 2020
    #12388
  9. Jun 2, 2020 at 12:24 PM
    #12389
    TreeFortRichard

    #12389
    TreeFortRichard Barcelona Red is the best red...

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    It actually STRONGLY benefits from a sloooooow but + recovery of oil companies...Ideally you want $0.02 a day for 2 years on the underlying assets...That increase is exponentially better...So right now based on the slow recovery of the Big 10 oil stocks...NRGU has a LOT more upside than NAIL...
     
    TreeFortRichard, Jun 2, 2020
    #12389
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  10. Jun 2, 2020 at 12:25 PM
    #12390
    pdaddy

    #12390
    pdaddy WeLl-KnOwN mEmBeR

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    I sold all my DKNG today. Saw it was in the red and panic sold. Not sure what I’ll put it in
     
    pdaddy, Jun 2, 2020
    #12390
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  11. Jun 2, 2020 at 12:27 PM
    #12391
    rmepilot

    #12391
    rmepilot Well-Known Member

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    NRGU?

    Also, I'm looking at CCXX for long term.
     
    rmepilot, Jun 2, 2020
    #12391
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  12. Jun 2, 2020 at 12:29 PM
    #12392
    gpb

    #12392
    gpb Well-Known Member

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    Did the same thing last Thursday - it hit my trailing stop...

    ... at $36.83... and and even with today's pull back it's over 40...

    :anonymous:
     
    gpb, Jun 2, 2020
    #12392
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  13. Jun 2, 2020 at 12:31 PM
    #12393
    ThunderOne

    #12393
    ThunderOne [OP] Well-Known Member

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    tl;dr: decay is a bitch. :rofl:
     
    ThunderOne, Jun 2, 2020
    #12393
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  14. Jun 2, 2020 at 12:32 PM
    #12394
    TreeFortRichard

    #12394
    TreeFortRichard Barcelona Red is the best red...

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    The upside on NRGU is only limited by the number of intervals (trading days) until it maxes out...and then the losses kill you at 3x...NAIL is far closer to the underlying assets maxing out...However if they asymptotically slow as the approach the max but don't dip...you can still make money. Just that $90 isn't realistic in the time frame.
    Here is a 12/2018 NAIL vs the Top 3 underlying assets so you can see the slow slope to +200% return over the underlying assets...It took 2 years...
    This link should work to take a look...
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NAI...6ImNoYXJ0IiwicGFuZWxOYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQifX19fQ==
    [​IMG]
     
    TreeFortRichard, Jun 2, 2020
    #12394
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  15. Jun 2, 2020 at 12:33 PM
    #12395
    TreeFortRichard

    #12395
    TreeFortRichard Barcelona Red is the best red...

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    NOT decay, not enough daily compounding intervals between now and max price of underlying assets.
     
    TreeFortRichard, Jun 2, 2020
    #12395
  16. Jun 2, 2020 at 12:33 PM
    #12396
    ThunderOne

    #12396
    ThunderOne [OP] Well-Known Member

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    ThunderOne, Jun 2, 2020
    #12396
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  17. Jun 2, 2020 at 12:34 PM
    #12397
    pdaddy

    #12397
    pdaddy WeLl-KnOwN mEmBeR

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    Possibly NRGU but I got a lot of it already. It’s still pretty low tho
     
    pdaddy, Jun 2, 2020
    #12397
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  18. Jun 2, 2020 at 12:35 PM
    #12398
    ThunderOne

    #12398
    ThunderOne [OP] Well-Known Member

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    saaaaame thing, plus if you try to trade an ETF that has choppy movement, you are even more screwed. Do up 5% and down 5% every other day and it's not gonna look good
     
    ThunderOne, Jun 2, 2020
    #12398
  19. Jun 2, 2020 at 12:37 PM
    #12399
    rmepilot

    #12399
    rmepilot Well-Known Member

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    If i pull out of DKNG, it will all go into NRGU .

    I'm looking at CCXX for the very near future.
     
    rmepilot, Jun 2, 2020
    #12399
  20. Jun 2, 2020 at 12:39 PM
    #12400
    Boyk1182

    #12400
    Boyk1182 Well-Known Member

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    How is the bid/ask spread with instruments like this? Does that screw you when you can't sell at the actual quoted price?
     
    Boyk1182, Jun 2, 2020
    #12400
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