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Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

Discussion in 'Stocks & Investments' started by ThunderOne, Feb 1, 2018.

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  1. Jun 19, 2020 at 10:21 AM
    Boyk1182

    Boyk1182 Well-Known Member

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    As bad as it sounds, 100k deaths isn't even a drop in the bucket if you compare it to other health issues.
     
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  2. Jun 19, 2020 at 10:22 AM
    ThunderOne

    ThunderOne [OP] Well-Known Member

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    yeah, the amount of lives not lost due to no one driving on the road for 3 months has probably more than made up for the lives lost due to COVID.
     
  3. Jun 19, 2020 at 10:23 AM
    Boyk1182

    Boyk1182 Well-Known Member

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    The amount of suicides and other deaths during the lock down, caused by the lock down, may be more than those saved by the lock down. It's impossible to know, but it's plausible.
     
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  4. Jun 19, 2020 at 10:28 AM
    ThunderOne

    ThunderOne [OP] Well-Known Member

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    we'll know soon enough.
     
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  5. Jun 19, 2020 at 10:29 AM
    slander

    slander Honorary Crawl Boi

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    Hopefully it wont happen again we ended up with buildings being burned and people in the streets! I live in a banana republic so anything's a possibility here.

    About the headlines its crazy isnt it? My google cards "stocks rally...." I look at the metrics and it's down. I dont trust any news source these days, its all propaganda. That makes it's hard because most people see it as true so it makes it hard to trade and do other things LOL!!
     
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2020
  6. Jun 19, 2020 at 10:31 AM
    Boyk1182

    Boyk1182 Well-Known Member

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    I've said it before, no matter which side of the aisle you're on, if you believe your side's propaganda, you need help!
     
  7. Jun 19, 2020 at 10:32 AM
    slander

    slander Honorary Crawl Boi

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    100% true!!
     
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  8. Jun 19, 2020 at 10:33 AM
    davidstacoma

    davidstacoma Friendly Curmudgeon

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    This is a perfect example where “news” headlines are misleading.
    Motor Vehicle Fatality Rates Jump 14% in March Despite Quarantines”
    Yet when you read the article carefully actual fatality deaths in March were DOWN 8%.
    https://www.nsc.org/in-the-newsroom...ty-rates-jump-14-in-march-despite-quarantines
     
  9. Jun 19, 2020 at 10:36 AM
    GarlicFarts

    GarlicFarts Bertolli Roberto

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    Honestly @Boyk1182 has inspired me a bit. Monopoly sure, but I might still drop in on XOM, T, etc. and get some sweet, sweet dividends long term on some stuff. Might be banking on it in my boring portfolio instead, but hey, worth a shot.

    Yeah they got picked up by someone earlier this week or last week so they went from basically a nobody penny stock small company to being owned by a big gun company, so their value goes way up.

    correlation causation mumbo jumbo.

    We've talked about it a lot on here before, I think this virus was seen initially as a coronavirus, which we saw in SARS and MERS and some others. THOSE viruses are really deadly. THIS virus came on the scene with a much higher transmission rate and way faster spread -- initial fear was something that deadly, that contagious, no bueno!

    But. Here we are now. We've learned more about it, gotten a more solid footing on the containment and treatment, learned that it's not as deadly as SARS MERS etc, even though it spreads a lot easier. Initial fear and panic was, in my opinion, justified from what we knew and what we didn't know at the time. Now it's a much different scene, and if gubment tries to roll massive lock downs like they did before, they'll have a small (or large) revolt. First, because we know it's not as deadly and it's not worth the panic, secondly because during the last (current) wave of lockdowns, we had gubment telling protesters that it was fine to protest and gather in groups and admiring them for it o_O. Now, I won't get into a political debate, I know that's against the rules, but the way I see it -- if a gubment tries to roll back and enforce a stricter lockdown, it won't end well. They could end up extending present phases and deciding to extend the phase a few more weeks, but to roll it back will not be pretty, and I don't think anyone will respect that rule enforcement.

    BUT anyway. Looks like I may have been (unfortunately) right in my early-week prediciton. Up or level until a Friday sell off :(
     
  10. Jun 19, 2020 at 10:36 AM
    gpb

    gpb Well-Known Member

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    Without even reading the article let me guess...

    Rate of deaths per ## accidents increased.
    Overall number of deaths decreased?

    News around here (ATL) at the time had a bunch of incidents of folks getting caught >100mph -- which is pretty difficult to achieve on our highways outside of a pandemic.
     
  11. Jun 19, 2020 at 10:37 AM
    Boyk1182

    Boyk1182 Well-Known Member

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    That reminds me of an article on Seeking Alpha. The headline made it sound like dividends were forecast to be cut 28% due to this recession, but the truth was dividend GROWTH was forecast to be down that much. The smart people in the comments picked that up real quick, I just scanned the headline and panicked.
     
  12. Jun 19, 2020 at 10:39 AM
    Iwilltaco

    Iwilltaco Well-Known Member

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    @kairo’s guest house having a water with @not_nick
    Under development
    I remember that headline also. It certainly grabbed my attention, I guess that’s the goal.
     
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  13. Jun 19, 2020 at 10:43 AM
    GarlicFarts

    GarlicFarts Bertolli Roberto

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    This is what I like to see - Per Capita statistics! I agree with the headline, actually. We drove less so you expect the rates to go down, but per miles it actually went up. Normalize the data and it will show the real picture - this one we could have said "fatalities down" which is true because less people are driving, and less commutes are happening, etc. BUT the "per mile" metric is the important one when comparing regions, roads, etc.
     
  14. Jun 19, 2020 at 10:43 AM
    davidstacoma

    davidstacoma Friendly Curmudgeon

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    Yep, you got it.
     
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  15. Jun 19, 2020 at 10:45 AM
    gpb

    gpb Well-Known Member

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    "Lies, damned lies, and statistics"
     
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  16. Jun 19, 2020 at 10:48 AM
    davidstacoma

    davidstacoma Friendly Curmudgeon

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    Nope, an honest headline would say vehicle deaths down but death rates increase. We were discussing the decrease in vehicle deaths during corona virus so the total deaths for March is pertinent and rates don’t tell that story.
     
  17. Jun 19, 2020 at 10:52 AM
    Boyk1182

    Boyk1182 Well-Known Member

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    Exactly. If there was 1 accident total and the driver died, the headline could either be:

    "100% of Accidents in March Resulted in Death, an Unprecedented Rate."

    or

    "Only 1 Death Was Caused Due to Driving in March, the Lowest Monthly Total Ever Recorded."

    They'd obviously use the one that will get the most clicks.
     
  18. Jun 19, 2020 at 11:08 AM
    ThunderOne

    ThunderOne [OP] Well-Known Member

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  19. Jun 19, 2020 at 11:19 AM
    Boyk1182

    Boyk1182 Well-Known Member

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    I just saw a CNBC headline that Amazon workers are outraged that they served chicken and waffles at a Juneteenth celebration. If we didn't celebrate, there would be outrage. If we do celebrate, outrage. Hamburgers, outrage. Chicken and waffles, outrage. How will the US win the next war with this level of sensitivity? This is beyond crazy.
     
  20. Jun 19, 2020 at 11:23 AM
    davidstacoma

    davidstacoma Friendly Curmudgeon

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    Lol Welcome to the media induced “Outrage America”. I laugh at the nonsense, go outside and breath the fresh air in the real world and leave the nonsense behind :)
     
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