Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

I see. The problem now is that percentages of low numbers are lower numbers. Example: a 10% increase at $50 a share is $5; a 10% increase at $3.14 a share is $0.314. I don’t see how it could ever get back to $50. Even $10 is hard to imagine.

 

And the reason 50 is out of the question or even 20 is so unlikely is how it has done nothing the last few months, other than essentially averaging down. If XOM goes up 5%, then down 5% the next day, it sits at 99.75% of where it was before the first day. Do that same up down up down for 6 days, and XOM still retains 99.25% of its original value. NRGU however, is at 97.75 after 1 up and down cycle. After the 6 day back and forth, it’s down to 93.4%. Extend that out over these last few months, and you can see how it’s so far behind. And as @Boyk1182 stated, that makes each increase worth less from here on out. So running the math that would get NRGU to 10 or 20, it would require the assets to go much higher than seems reasonable anytime soon.

 

It's why this worked for NAIL and not NRGU. NAIL only had 1 real fall and a steady rise. Oil keeps getting kicked in the nuts.

 

Annd there you go. ADT down $2.50 from the overbought open spike. I wanted puts but the math wasn't good. I think a lot of people were buying the Aug $15 puts so they were overpriced

 

So in your opinion, what's a reasonable number for NRGU to grow to by years end?

 

[half sarcastically/] At this point I am waiting for it to tank and do some 10:1 reverse split and screw us all [half sarcastically]

Just give me $4 or 5!

 

That’s difficult, I’d still only play it daily, few days at most. That long term number depends too much on how the next month goes. If it goes as it has, NRGU will continue decaying, or as I say averaging down. The longer it takes to recover, the less upside it has. That’s why it shouldn’t be the goal. Not a long term investment. Anyone who is stuck and can get out at 4, probably a good idea. 5, best case it needs to move soon, XOM to about 50 is what it would take for example if the others mirror it. That’s where we sit now, with day over day increases. Every down day changes the math. Long enough and it takes 55 XOM for NRGU to hit 5. And on and on it goes.

 

To get from $3 to $45 (just for an easy example), you'd need a 15x gain, or 1,500%. If it's leveraged at 3x, that would be a 500% gain on the underlying assets. Does that make sense? Like XOM would have to go to $200.

 

Whelp, this thread is no longer fun lmao

 

There are better ways to look at it. As it resets everyday, 20 straight days of NRGU +15% a day, would get you to 50 about. So 5% each day for 20 days for XOM would put it at 111. Now that scenario is obviously not going to happen. But represents the best chance. 90+ straight days of 1% gain for underlying each day, keeps them closer to realistic highs, but still all time, and gets NRGU to 50. Or 6 days where they jump 20% a day

 

Well here's how crazy I am. I did the math on a quick dip of NRGU based upon poor returns over the next week and bought a small but equal stake in NRGD. Just a couple hundred dollars. If NRGU you takes a 10 or 15% drop that will go up 15% at $18 a share. I can't hold this position for very long but it's sort of like insurance because of the magnification of the price difference.

 

That's true, as things go up, the gains would need to be less percentage wise than in my example.

 

My math was to show our friends here it’s not quite as dreadful as yours showed, but still completely out of the realm of any possibility I can see. But hey, nobody knows for sure right? I’m ok with xom over 100 if that’s the price I need to pay. CVX shares might be a bit costly for me to add though

 

SPCE missed earnings. Then said they are selling 20M more shares. FML.

I'm 0 for 2 on earnings so far. Maybe I should dump those NVDA options after all. lol

 

Spce just got rolls Royce involved though. Seems like good news...

 

Wish it was Pratt & Whitney...

 

That's part of what drove the 6.5% gains today. Then they missed earnings which drove them down 7% after hours. That will continue tomorrow most likely. I still have 14 trading days before the options expire. It just basically put me in a hold and wait pattern instead of a sell and profit trade.

 

SRNE looking like gold pre-market...
We find out at 10:15 if it's robin hood or institutional buyers..
https://robinhood.com/collections/100-most-popular

 

ATVI reports at close today...heavy volume and price jump...I should have purchased options yesterday.

 

The country has nothing to do but sit inside playing games and buying stuff on Amazon. Why on earth are we buying stocks in Oil and Cruise Lines?