Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

Could be good for a confetti shower to blast off the hunger games.

 

In Cali it will (IS) be common to never pay off the loan. It will be a competition to owe the least. "Hey, I only owe 400,000 on my shack, how much do you owe ?"

edit: interest only loan

 

If I hear “unprecedented” one more time...

Kidding, of course. Every major impact is unprecedented and it will always cause market fluctuations, however, some may be better planned for by those with diligence under their belts. We continually increase and improve the tools available for educated guessing, so the outcome predictability narrows for the ones keeping track of historical data.

In my opinion, we’re hobbling along to avoid the most recent circumstances found in the dot com crash and the housing implosion. Anything to keep that from happening looks like a win, rather than letting the market forcefully correct itself.

My opinion is based on social capital and psychological research, not necessarily financial records. I’m probably in Lalaland, so disregard.

 

Some of the best market prediction programs made over the last 10 years use human psychology and not economic indicators. Some kids at MIT made an algorithm that tracked social media and news outlets. That program was crazy accurate in it's predictions. So, no, I won't disregard it.

As far as historical economic indicators go. I think we are entering a new paradigm. Maybe those models worked before we had instant global connection. Maybe they don't work so well now. Time will tell how economist adapt, or even if they need to, to these changes in daily life.

 

Some seem to think the answer is for the USA to become Venezuela part 2 SMH

 

Okay budday. Corporate welfare is cool. But not social welfare? Noice

 

And on the uber topic - the boom in gig work is frickin sweet and super beneficial for the economy as a whole especially with the amount of communication we have now butttt if you pay attention it's getting backed into a corner about as much as 'they' can get it to. I don't think this is a coincidence because it allows for A LOT of freedom for parties involved so they're cracking down quick. Along similar lines i think this is the real reason tech is booming and will continue to. My work is kinda in the tech industry and supplies a lot for it. Everywhere else i've worked in my short time, the topic that shall not be named here gets in the way of nearly everything. Osha and inspectors crawling all over to say no to this, make arbitrary rules about that, regulations galore- supermarkets, diggin holes, various types of building, tree work - doesn't matter, they got no fear of putting their nose in everything. Where i work now the ISO inspectors come around once a year and that's about it. Same with most of the tech industry stuff; it's been moving so fast from the start that rules and regulations can't keep up. And tech is starting to lose steam in a lot of ways besides AI basically, but it's about the only industry where opportunity isn't stifled greatly so i don't see it holding back for a while
*As usual, mostly anecdotal from my small world view

 

I was always intrigued as to how Hitler rose to power. He was very well liked before the evil began. I wonder if we’re seeing that play out with this recent movement that so many are unquestionably on board for. Only time will tell. That may be too political though so no need to comment on it.

 

I'm about the opposite of an expert, but it seems to me that sentiment is the only thing that moves the market.
All the technical analysis and lines and charts and graphs all only mean something if people think they mean something.
If the consensus is that the market or stocks or whatever will go down, them people will sell and it will go down
If the consensus is up, people will buy and it will go up.
I wonder if a flood of newer investors who don't know about or put any stock in technical analysis is beginning to render it useless.

 

I don’t know if you’ve heard of or read Avi Gilburt’s work, but I think he is right. He’s all about sentiment, but in a technical analysis way (it’s an Elliott Wave analysis). It’s all about sentiment though, and I agree with the gist of what he says.

 

iso is voluntary. Typically iso 9001 is a quality management system. I’m more familiar with as9100 which is a derivative of iso9001 with a few more requirements. We have a yearly audit. You have a full audit and then two surveillance audits the next two years where they do a spot check/half of the requirements each time. Then the third year is your recertification audit. I don’t know if iso is the same for iso9001 though.

But, iso is not a government organization. As9100 has some input from the FAA I believe and there might be some minor government input into ISO standards, but as a whole the organization isn’t the feds. Hell, it’s Swiss.

fun stuff. Iso is the international organization for standards. It stands for iso in French because they’re French. That’s the common misconception. Iso is shortened from the Greek Isos meaning similar to/equal to (standardized).

I’m fun at parties.

 

My realtor laughed when he heard what we were approved for vs our budget. And we even stretched our budget to it’s max (it’s still a budget so, like, within reason it’s max....) knowing we could grow into it because this house checked every single box perfectly. The only thing missing was a pool. So we spent 7k above our budgeted 230k max, we were aiming for 225. Happy we made that call now. Insane. But I think there’s a lot of people who did overbuy their budgets and that’s starting to shake out now. Not nearly as bad as the 08 setup but still, pretty bad.

ANYWAY. I have a question on dividends, specifically with TD ameritrade. Does TD just add your dividends to your cash available? I saw something about withdrawing dividends from TD cost 20$ (Some random reddit post to be fair). I guess same question for RH, does the platform just put the dividends into your account as cash and shake it all out at the end of the year on tax forms?

 

I can't answer that about TD, but yes, Robinhood adds it as cash.

 

I think the freedom argument is lazy thinking. So many costs that Uber shirks on the govt.

 

Can you elaborate? I'm not quite following this.

 

One of the most unsettling pictures (for me) of Hitler is when he’s hugging a little girl and you can see the love in his eyes. It’s hard because everyone wants to paint Hitler as pure evil (and he was an evil evil man) so when you see a picture like that, it messes with you. It’s hard to remember that Hitler was committing his atrocities partly out of a love for his country.

Note - I am in NO WAY attempting justify anything that Hitler did, at all.

 

RH added my dividends to my available cash stack.