CARVANA

Some people have no patience and have to have it now, regardless of over paying.

 

EBay is flooded with Carvana Tacoma’s.
They want 36k for 2017 double cab sr lol
https://www.ebay.com/itm/203088342753

 

Delusional. I think we've hit peak bubble for everything including houses

 

This isn’t the place to ask, I’m not basing any decision on your answer, but what is your thought on housing, coming down any time soon?

 

I sold my 2019 TRD sport double cab 2WD with 3K miles on it to Carvana for $36,154. I only paid 34,800 brand new off the dealer lot after TTL. Took my positive equity and went and bought a 2020 with all the upgrades. And on top of that they are trying to sell my truck for $38,990!!! I buy cars for dealerships for a living and Carvana is just insane with their offers.

 

I am pretty sure that guy has been predicting market crashes as long as he has been here.

Eventually he might be right, but not because he actually has the ability to predict.

Kind of a one note symphony imo.

 

A lot of pud knockers will keep telling you that everything is sustainable and we're NOT in a bubble. The Fed has done a fantastic job blowing back up that bubble. The bubble can go on as long as the Fed keeps rates low.

 

Have you seen the housing market in Silicon Valley, the peak has not been hit.

 

It's the supply/demand that is keeping the housing market stable. There simply aren't enough houses to go around for the demand, especially in highly sought after areas. California is a classic example of negative supply, but it's been expanding to many other markets these past few years, and now exists basically in every major metro area. I'm not an expert in housing markets in any sense of the word, and it's just some guys opinion on the interwebz, but I don't see housing costs crashing anytime soon unless more people start losing their jobs due to covid... if that happens and the market starts getting flooded with foreclosures, that's the only way I see a 'burst' happening. Also it's not like 2008 where people are upside down, most people have solid equity invested which will prevent them from foreclosure, they would definitely sell at market value first (and get it due to supply shortages) so again, a crash is not likely unless it affects the masses.

Edit: back on topic, these used car prices are insane and I cannot comprehend the logic in buying them. 1. They're listed at the same or higher than a new one would cost and 2. Financing these will be at a much higher rate than if purchasing new. Double jeopardy!

 

It may be supply and demand too. Joe or Karen wants that taco now (for whatever reason), and dealers may not have what they are looking for.

 

1. If people are paying $36,000 for a used Tacoma SR, it isn't housing prices that are too high unless there's a way to add a shower, bed and toilet to a Tacoma.

2. Millenials are now age 23-37. It's a bigger generation than Gen X by far, and bigger than Baby Boomers. The older half of them held off buying houses because they were going to float through life and didn't want to be "tied down"... well some of them have decided to move out of their parents houses now that Covid hit. They were waiting for grandma and grandpa to move into a down-sized condo, but that isn't happening. Baby boomers aren't downsizing yet because when they thought about retiring, 2001 hit or 2008-09 hit, so many of them ended up working an additional 6 to 8 or currently 11 years. So this market is being driven by demand as much as anything. I don't think a ton of investors are out speculating on single family homes hoping to rent it out to millenials with 3 dogs as a long term plan. If you talk with housing investors, many felt the investor market was over-inflated by all measurables about 3-4 years ago, but prices continue to increase. Why? Cheap money and demand.

3. The value of the dollar as we print $$$ all over isn't weakening the dollar. It's still strong in comparison to other currencies and likely will continue for a while.

 

They now have 210 third gen double cabs. They are monopolizing Tacomas so no one else can buy them.

 

Back to trucks.
Sold my truck to local dealer for obscene amount of money(for me at least)
2017 dclb sport AT with tech and jbl 43k miles. 36k... bought new for 38. Carvana was offering 32 and some change.

 

Places like carmax and I suspect carvana specialize in subprime auto loans. There are tons of people out there with less than stellar credit hence carmax/carvanas exsist

 

A quick tip for those who are looking to sell. Try Craigslist and wait for dealers in your area to take bait. On the 3rd day of my ad, I’ve had 3 dealers lined up wanting to pay asking price. Ended selling for 1k more than asking price.
Also ad matters, take your time and details everything. If anyone wants an example let me know, my CL ad is still up.
Results may vary. I’m in WA state.

 

A broke clock is right twice a day.

 

I was actually going to say that...

But this guy hasn’t been right in 4 years- just kidding cause not sure if it’s true.

 

You’re a CPA, right?

 

Not since they caught me stealing from the convent.