Still think TITNC3: Return of the Iceberg was peak

I reloaded on my quest for tankless water heater and potentially KTM 790. PLTR is still kicking me in the balls ($600 purchase on that), as are the FCEL calls ($280). I bought a bunch of RYCEY shares yesterday, and hopped into BB calls. Threw in some COTY calls because every time I've done that its made me money. I honestly have no idea what they do. Something with cosmetics? That was my first free robinhood stock, and it hasn't done anything aside from grow slowly upwards.

House passed the weed vote. APHA was nervous about it all day. With a jan exp, I'm fully expecting that to make me some money.

I tend to buy calls just barely out of the money with a couple months to expiry. If I bet right, I make some cash. If I bet wrong, usually by expiry I'm not down a ton.

What really makes me happy is I'm playing with the bank's money at this point.

 

So what’s everyone’s guess on when the next big market correction makes the thread title right?
Been reading doomsday crash forecasts on the press for the last few years. I expect some small corrections but don’t think the Robinhood investors care or maybe even know that the markets overvalued, Tesla the best example of that.

 

Yeah, it's not RH that's making bold predictions about TSLA.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/goldman-says-tesla-stock-is-worth-another-30-at-780-51607002650

 

Every time I look at Tesla, I say to myself, "it absolutely has to correct. It's way over valued and the cult of Elon is just propping this whole thing up." And then it just ignores me and keeps going up. Meme stocks gonna meme.

 

The once in a decade crash was March 2020. We will get another in 10 years or so. It’s like clockwork. Plenty of 10% corrections in the meantime.

 

Yep. And Tesla’s gonna keep increasing sales and stock going up in their niche market until the big auto makers start rolling out their electrics over the next few years and overtake Tesla by the mid to late 20’s.
Tesla sales are currently a small blip on the overall industries auto sales yet their market capitalization is 10 times some of the big automakers.
https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2020-us-vehicle-sales-figures-by-brand/

 

Agree, but I don’t count March 2020 as anything but a COVID panic the recovery time was short. Wasn’t a true market driven correction imho. I count Dec 2018/Jan 2019 as a market driven correction.

 

I agree, but that was the 40% correction in my opinion. We had 2000, 2009, 2020, ready for 2030. Just ride it out, it’s meaningless.

 

Agree. But I’m going to ride it out very diversified as I prep for retirement haha

 

Indeed it is a balance between being fully invested and having enough cash to make something bigger off the dips. I KNOW what the articles and "experts" say about just buying VTI and letting it ride, but I believe once you have a large enough (by doing exactly that) nest egg, the averages can be beat. Some studies have shown this - in the 3-5-10 year spans.

 

I bought some longer March Microsoft 220 Calls. When I buy my calls, I don't go too far OTM. I like to keep it pretty close to where it's at. I also have about ~60 percent of my portfolio in cash right now. Worried about the next big crash. I'm going to be prepared for it.

 

That’s a large % in cash

 

Yep, it is. I am predicting a crash again in Jan. IMO we will be locked down again for 4-6 weeks and we will see a crash like before. I will then buy some long leaps and hopefully, the market recovers like it did this time.

 

just be extra cautious what you put into any diversification that are claims on 'cash', i.e.,bonds , not backed by anything
the real panic still looms where all those claims become worthless overnight (without warning) and end up as a pile of worthless toilet paper, its happened before out there somewhere

 

I never thought about that, but bonds can become worthless quicker than stocks in today’s world. If a city goes bankrupt, municipal bonds might be a problem, while WMT will do just fine no matter what happens with the coronavirus.

 

All it will take is a complete loss of confidence in the US dollar

 

Yes I just got a top notch financial advisor who says some of the same things especially junk bonds.
Though my intermediate bond fund fared a hella lot better than stocks during the covid dip, it’s the longer term impact to watch for now.

 

Smart imho. There were two solid stocks Im very familiar with that dropped from $90s to the $60s on the covid drop. Both with PE ratios already low and historically good dividends. I would have been all on were cash available instead of in my 401k funds. Both back over 90 in just a few months. I don’t think the next covid drop will be as big but time will tell.

 

Ohhh...big bad me can post again..
Stupid KODK...I had the $10 NOV calls..of course it pops for DEC...This is the short cover day I thought was coming last month. The $10 calls were $0.09 friday. They'll be $3 today
Oil getting finicky today..
Added that BFT@$11.40