4th generation - timing? details?

And name calling certainly helps the situation.

 

It's gotten worse lately.

It's getting really hard to glean accurate information from even the most informative of threads.

 

Simply put, I am really just here to be helpful, as I can be and fill in the blanks. It is very, very obvious to me, Japanese automakers are the worst when it comes to their owners being fully informed about what's happening. Y'all have gotten used to it and it's that unfortunate. The uncertainty, warranted pessimism, and cynicism.


Look at that the damn 4Runner: 8 years on the same MMC refresh (updated a bit MY2020) and same body since October 2009. Virtually the same vehicle since October 2002, as the 120-Series basis (N210) is not dissimilar from the incumbent 150-Series basis (N280). Prototypes of the new one are testing in Japan now at proving grounds and 1.5 years away from showrooms. Add 1 year to that for Tacoma.


I have not been able to log in due to issues with this website BTW and it has been many weeks for mostly that reason.

Thanks my man, but I'll do what I can to "help". I am not frustrated at the average, casual observer, but those that are not going off of hard evidence and muddling the narrative with bad information or no research (of their own). I have seen past manufacturing timelines that already showed when this generation ended production and Tundra as well. Tundra fell behind and it was forced hold back all other programs too.

You're welcome. I don't know about that diesel, as they wanted to do that 1 1/2 ago and I haven't heard much about anything diesel since. As for the turbo-4 mated to hybrid, 30 months out is too early for me to know that. They barely have handed over the final design to engineering.

I have no issue with people believing what they want to believe privately and being skeptical, but anyone makes that a point of answering someone else's innocent, unbiased, curious question and tainting/misleading their perspective, contrary to what's actually going to happen, then I take real issue. And why?


Because I have already commented on that at length earlier in both 2019 & 2020 several times and even provided my own findings to 1 or 2 news outlets. Unfortunately the news guys and copycats of theirs, took me out of context and injected their own BS to sell the story longer. This is typically what happens with inside info after media filters through it.

• For instance in my report, I never said the Lexus GS would become a fuel cell vehicle. I had said the Mirai, was based on the aborted GS program and final design from 2016. I found that many stupid outlets claimed that and took me out of context.

I said that the next Tacoma was a 2024 model, because I have not only seen internal and supplier information supporting it, it has been confirmed by the design department via a contact I have there. Outside of that, I know very little. I do not profess to know the program inside-out, but between seeing some basic official Toyota documentation, knowing how long it takes a detailed clay mockup (to go from the stage it was at) to a showroom, that is typically 2.5 to 3 years out. Fall 2020 = Fall 2023.

• For instance, Toyota completed the final clay models of the 010B Program Toyota Camry (XV70) for MY 2018 in December 2014. In a Toyota HQ design review session the first week of January 2015, the XV70 Camry design was finalized and handed off to engineering, then the car went on sale in late July of 2017.
  
• 2023 4Runner reached that point over a year ago from what I also heard, so it's a late 2022 launch. First test mules are built 2 years out and first verification test vehicles are completed 1.5 years or more out.

Someone I know formerly of Ford and now of Toyota, is working on both the Tacoma and Tundra. Out of respect, I am not going to ask him about it like I did the clay modeler, but he has definitely dropped me a means of proving what I have been saying for a year now.


Next Tacoma is still 2024MY and is coming along nicely. These delays with anything Tundra right now are simply minor, not major (6-12 months). Anyone that doesn't want to believe that, really should just keep that to themselves or have a disclaimer (ie opinion), as not everyone will understand their reasoning.


Everything I have tried to unearth both publicly and privately makes no real mention of 2025MY or 2026MY. It all pointed to this generation ending in Q3 2023 and Q3 2023 being JOB 1 for a given vehicle program code that succeeds the current vehicle. It all just lines up neatly, unlike anyone claiming 2025+. I would have not reported this to automotive journalists, if I didn't trust my knowledge.

Oh, most definitely. You have done a very, very fine job of keeping the narrative straight. Toyota is not officially ready to do that, because of the aspect of selling current models and it being of exposing nature so early on.

Thanks, but I'll be honest and say my record isn't entirely clean. I've made many, many mistakes in the past and I'm sure they're documented somewhere.

• I presumed the updated Prado for 2018 meant the 4Runner would be heavily updated for 2018 and it wasn't (caught it early due to lack of TSS+). Assumed 2019MY as a staggered release, until early 2018 when I discovered the MY2020 update for GX and figured 4Runner aligned this time with that.

• Was correct finally and then started realizing 4Runner success meant it would be redesigned soon per internal briefings in 2019, but when became the question? Asking around, it was either going to be MY2023 or MY2024 at earliest. It couldn't be before Tundra for MY 2021 (delayed to 2022) nor before Land Cruiser, because of TNGA-F. I was right.

• In early 2020, my question was finally answered by CALTY. Toyota opted to redesign their flagship V8 BOFs and outdated SUVs first, before replacing their midsized pickups and then before I could breathe, saw the 2023 info for 4Runner and 2024 for Tacoma. After that, the timeline slides in early February 2020 further confirmed what I had heard and seen weeks before.

At this point anyone saying otherwise, because of past generations, just really doesn't know what they're talking about and I'll won't endorse anyone else believing their misleading opinionated drivel, if I can make a difference. Toyota on a corporate level, is not going to put this out there and someone has to, on a discreet level (what happens on TW, stays on TW ideally).

There are people who make financial planning around buying these trucks, which for the average person I imagine, isn't so cheap.

As well as some who lease them and certainly would want to know, when or not this generation ends. Random guesses don't really help with that.

Despite COVID-19, I can confidently state, it is still MY 2024 because the men and women working on it, still identify it as "2024 MY" and Tundra as MY 2022. It doesn't get more concrete than that.

I am rightfully upset, because it's not about me. It's about the message, not me. As long as everyone is on the same page, I am content. If someone else beat me to it, it's better that more people are saying the same thing for fellow Tacoma owners and most of us knowing what to expect and making plans accordingly ahead of time.

People lease these and the majority who do buy them, also want to know when to expect major changes. If I see no one else stepping forward, I will try and clear the air naturally, since the media hasn't made any relation mention independent of my own reporting. Toyota doesn't want to discuss it, for obvious reasons, but it doesn't mean a small set of owners cannot know before the general public in a low key fashion.

What I don't like, is others saying the opposite with no real evidence nor doing any research of their own to refute what I have stated. All I get is, "well because 2nd gen lasted...", "sales are great, so..." or "if ain't broke..." Not tangible and logical actual reasons, so I am miffed because it creates a disconnect and no one is on the same page when that happens.

Once anyone's key information on future product comes from Toyota's own domain, it's off limits for being reproduced elsewhere if documentation or visuals. I cannot bring a clay modeler here to show or discuss what he worked on, when he won't even describe to me the details of the design, as that would attract legal issues for him.

I don't even know if it was the winning final design choice, but since it's a USA-based design studio on a North American offering, that's likely the design winner.

• The 2016 truck was designed here at CALTY and signed off in 2013, but the 2005 truck was a winning entry from Toyota City, Japan studios in 2001. And why did the Japanese team win over California proposals? To better align it with the 2003 4Runner, another Japanese HQ design entry approved in 2000.

• Some Toyotas are designed right here at CALTY and many others, at other global studios. If a friend of mine brags to me that he is working on a large clay buck for a midsize pickup program and he is employed by Toyota CALTY, it's very obvious to me what that is. Either Hilux or Tacoma.

• Knowing the history of the Hilux since 1997, it has never been worked on at CALTY. Only Tacoma and Tundra are designed there generally.

• Since Tundra is way bigger and already done as of 2018, it was obviously Tacoma. He said the clay model was (going to be) painted and detailed for production representation, but beyond that he was not giving any more descriptions. That's something 2.5 to 3 years out.

Not to be arrogant, but in terms of my profession, I know down to a science all the various phases of vehicle design development and can determine by a simple photo, what narrow date range it was taken for any given clay model. As long as I know the Job 1 date, I can deduce when a design freeze or stage was issued/reached. 9 out of 10 times I am right, as that's industry modus operandi.

Thanks again, as that is what it is. It is not about me, which is why when you go spreading the news around to all of us to keep everyone up to date, I have great respect for you.

Someone else similarly gave away the launch date of the 2016 Tacoma back in 2012 via an airbag supplier he worked for, listing the JOB 1 date as mid-2015. I don't think too many people listened to him in 2012 nor the other insider I mentioned a few months ago, who worked for Toyota in Torrance.

Those guys all just lost interest I see, because of only a few members being interested then and thus got drowned out by a lot of foolery discrediting them (they were right though!) with alternate theories, with no substance.

Thank you Gnarman, just want us all on the same page and not misled or out of the loop. The latter can happen, when during casual discussion, uninformed folks keep spouting drivel and it being taken as credible by others. No one really wants that I hope, but judging by another thread, it's proving to be a waste of my time (outside of this thread)

Concrete insight? Sorry, not right now. Unlike my early knowledge of the 2022 Lexus NX, I am not so lucky with the 2024 Tacoma, as it''s 30 months out and not 18 months. I have an idea, but I am still waiting to confirm it all.

I have 2-3 sources I could desperately reach out to, but the nature of my own profession makes such a question way too competitive and invasive. I don't exactly work with midsize trucks, but larger trucks and SUVs for instance and not in Ann Arbor, but another town...

Even though @TacoBuffet responded, I have to mention that isn't what I stated. I have explicitly mentioned MY 2024 in 2023. A detailed clay mockup for a design review amongst other choices is final design selection or near it. In 2020, getting to that stage means you are 2 or 3 yeas out from launch. Since I do not see MY 2023 listing the Tacoma yet MY 2024 includes it, it's very obvious 2025 is out of the question.

Very few automakers will sit on a final design beyond 3 years, as something designed and finished 4-5 years before launch, then sold for another 9 years or so, will be 14 years old in terms of styling at the end of its life. Typically, that doesn't work very well at all and product suffers.

• The current Tacoma is in general a 2013 design (excluding small updates) and even worse, the cab design was approved by Toyota in 2001 for the 2005 model year 2nd generation truck. I have photos somewhere from November 2001, of the 2nd generation Tacoma at design studios in Japan as a styling mockup/prototype.

• Pretty much production ready at that very stage in 2001, yet released as a 2005 model and the same cab, is still in production in 2021 and will be through 2023. A full 22 years after it (cab design) was first styled, in life-size shape. 2026 is a big laugh, as this isn't a 70-Series niche vehicle. It's getting up there.

I would like anyone to explain to me how they would sit on a design for 5 years and provide concrete examples of Toyota making such a mistake, like Mercedes-Benz does at times.

• Particularly 30 years ago when Mercedes-Benz introduced a new S-Class for 1992, which the final design was finalized in 1986. It was received poorly in domestic Germany, because the final design work was done way too early.
• 2.5 to 3 years from launch out of a 5 year development program allows engineers enough time to fully engineer a chosen design from the styling department, into a working and factory assembly feasible vehicle.
  
• 4-5 years goes beyond what Toyota does by increasing product obsolescence and that is only what at this point, would allow for it to be a 2025 model. I cannot rule out anything between now and then though, because almost anything can happen. Doesn't negate what I have stated in the least, because that's what's currently targeted.

For all the engineers and personnel that are assigned to it, to have been lying when they earmark either "Tacoma 2023" or "MY2024 Tacoma". Let alone private timelines and databases. I am right on this and very confident, hence I am commenting on it.

I can't really speak to that. The idea here is to phase out 2GR and replace it with downsizing mated to hybrid power. LS 350 ironically uses an engine called 8GR and produces 318 hp, which is more than the 2GR-FKS in its best application in the IS 350.

The Sienna was supposed to be redesigned by MY 2018, but instead it got that 2GR-FKS and 2nd refresh. The 2021 Sienna arrived very, very,very late, by almost a year. Had teething problems during testing in 2019 that set everything back. Production was originally scheduled for beginning of 2020 for March 2020 launch. Ended up coming many months later in November 2020.

If you read another thread I commented in and the BS responses, you can see why it's hard to stay. I love my Tacoma and it's nice to chat with a few of you, but it's a very, very big forum and a lot of folks are not about it, so they make certain comments and it can really feel like a waste of time too quickly. Thanks BTW.

Yes, exactly. It's not about me, it's about the 4th generation Tacoma and the knowledge I had for years being 2023MY going cold and becoming MY 2024, due to the Tundra and Land Cruiser (non-USA behemoth) delays. I will never forget, Toyota internal text in 2015, stating EOP for the GRN325 being 06/30/2022. I never saw it again, but I deduced a lot from it and it turned to be 100%. They just added one year due delays.

If there are more delays, that is beyond the present and has to do with what they can manage. They deliberately set out to redesign both 2nd and 3rd gens in their respective years (2004, 2015), but this one will run late only because of f-ups with TNGA/COVID, not deliberate coasting off of sales. At worst, I could see a spring 2024 launch, but MY 2024 is fall 2023 is reasonable.

I'm just trying to keep the narrative straight, until the news media start reporting more on this next truck and I can bow out or they take the lead on it. Kind of like pinning to a main page "NEXT TACOMA IS MY 2024".

This is something recent from someone I know, who made a careless mistake with listing their Toyota assignments:

I probably will delete it, because it feels way too exposing.

Yes it is and one just gives up. Check out one of the other threads I posted in last December (now deleted) and see the responses I got. Some folks really just don't get it and don't understand how serious the matter of corporate espionage can be taken, that "providing receipts" this early is a dangerous game to play. In order to cover one's a$$, you need to find a public medium which supports your claims. Or risk using internal Toyota stuff, which can backfire on you fast.

(EDIT: I apologize to anyone that had to read those typos, as it can become hard to read, 2021/03/30)

 

I get your point, just know that lots of people here really enjoy your posts and hope you continue to post. Those that want to argue, well, they'd argue water being wet.

 

On what @Lt. Dangle said, you can click on a username and hit Ignore. It really cleans up the place.

 

Dat's sexy.

 

It's like the Fappening all over again.

 

Some of us never stopped.

 

So true!

 

Thanks, very good point. Going forward, will be doing that maybe.

This isn't much, but the only thing one can provide outside of locked access material or confidential PMs from a former colleague.

 

Love your posts, are there any interesting blogs or places someone could go to better understand vehicle design and manufacturing at a deeper level? I know about most of the major auto publications like motor trend but would love to learn more about how vehicles are designed and the people who make them.

 

Thanks LOL, maybe I need to start one? JK, it wouldn't have enough time to do it justice.

Well, let me get back to you on that with a good list. It's a bit all over the place and limited to a lot of literature or subscription stuff. For Tacoma, it is just really difficult to follow, as Toyota doesn't publish such information nor relay it to 3rd parties, like they do with Lexus and other Toyota models sold globally. All of this information is like a puzzle scattered all over the place.

I'll PM you later this evening or ASAP. I am going to be discussing on another forum, development of the 3rd and 4th generation 4Runners really soon, with included photos during development of each and comments from the engineers.

 

I wouldn't mind reading about that.

 

BTW, this is what Toyota said themselves 2 years ago in March of 2019 officially, 8 weeks after the 2020MY was revealed:

As we know it was actually 2023 MY and it slipped to 2024MY already, so that's some additional "proof" of how Toyota have been thinking in this area, on top of what I told you and what a former subordinate colleague of mine listed above, who is the one working on it and 2022 Tundra at Toyota. He worked briefly on new 2021 F-150 (P702).

Before I possibly sign out for awhile, I haven't had any reason to make any of this up and this is all what has been in the cards.

I'll keep that in mind.

 

I currently don't own a Toyota, have had several, lots even. What has turned me off to the truck line is the constant car-a-fying of them. I've had 3 2nd gen Tundras, and 3 Tacomas, no third gen. I know all manufactures have gone down this same road, but what happened to the real life truck user. We hear Twin Turbo this, we hear hybrid that, yet nothing has shaken in Toyota-ville. I still like Toyotas a lot, especially the Tacoma, but now a days my truck needs are more heavy duty then either Toyota truck can provide, my current set up is not anywhere near perfect, my truck sucks gas like a .... gets bad fuel milage, my commuter car is stuffed with 800 lbs of tools, but get 40 mpg, but I have to pay 2 insurance polices which grates me. Would love to see a Tundra that tows 14K pounds with a Toyota reliable TT V-6 cranking out 500 lb/ft of torque at 2,000 rpm.
Just ranting, sorry, good read, thank you.

 

Wow, what a mess (my mega-post). I apologize to anyone who struggled to parse through that wall of text, laden with typos. I've edited all of it for clarity and will do a much better job of proofreading anything I post again, because it isn't fair to put anyone through that.

Thank you and yeah, I understand your perspective. I don't drive my new Tacoma much (unfortunately), but it feels like a dog in some situations (resides in high elevation area). I couldn't imagine what it would be like with the auto. Toyota has big plans for once with these trucks, which was the case back in 2004-2007 on both second generation vehicles. Just have to wait and see, especially after Tundra launches (they'll do their damndest to hide anything on it for now).

 

Random question but what do you think of the new bronco?

 

Everything listed on this slide has come true I think right?

With my quick wikipedia skills:

1. Sienna 4th Gen (XL40) = 2020-Present
2. All-New Crossover? = Are they referring to the Venza 2nd Gen (XL80) - June 2020-Present
3. 86 = 2021-Present
4. All-New CUV = No clue
5. Tundra = Slipped to 2022 due to covid. Can't find estimated production dates. https://www.motortrend.com/news/2022-toyota-tundra-pickup-truck-everything-we-know/
6. Sequoia & 4Runner = No spy shots or ETA's found.

• Tacoma (Guessing here since its not on the timeline):
• 1st gen - 1995-2004 (9 years)
• 2nd gen - 2005-2016 (11 years)
• 3rd gen - 2015-Present (6 years so far)... So that means we won't see a new one for like 4 years(2025). I would bet money on it never getting a v8. Doubtful they would ever give it a turbo 6cyl cause that would eat into new Tundra sales. Maaaaybe a turbo 4cyl, but with Toyota's focus on reliability, I think it would be WAY more likely to see another naturally aspirated v6 option, with the top of the line having a hybrid powertrain.

 

Honestly at this point, I'd be stoked on a hybrid if it makes them more peppy and helps the gas mileage.

 

so what color is the 2022 Tacoma PRO?