Vendors still recovering from Pandemic

At 74yo I’m on my 4th Tacoma over these many years, and never a problem

I have always put Marathon seat covers on my truck and Love em! I purchased the front set, some time ago and now want the rear set. Keep in mind these are custom and are not sitting on the shelf

If I order today……. Shipping is estimated to be the last of August

It is what it is!’

 

I ordered some camo Carhartt seat covers May 19th, estimated ship date is July 21st

 

In my industry the lead times are 56 weeks. I wouldn't bitch over 12 weeks.

 

What is your industry?

 

Off highway mobile. Think big construction and timber harvesting.
If you having a hard time finding a new truck, go try to find a haul truck for pit mining or a skidder for forestry. Hell, go try to find a tractor for farming! It's fascinating really, because the supply chain shortage has finally gotten to the end, which is raw materials like iron, copper, petroleum etc. The demand has finally outstripped all facets of the supply chain.
It started with people exhausting current inventory.
Manufacturers couldn't first ramp up production because of people (covid)
Then manufacturers couldn't ramp up production because of shipping shortages like containers for parts.
Now manufacturers can't ramp up production because of shortage of raw materials.

And, it's a vicious cycle. For our company, we cannot get iron ore for our foundry fast enough and what we can get is costing 10% more than last year. The people who extract iron ore need additional machines and components to meet demand, except manufacturers need the iron ore to build those machines! I am 58 years old and have never seen anything like this.
I know what's gonna happen for general consumers because it's happening right now for manufacturers....
Prices are going up on raw material so prices will go up on components which will drive prices up on new finished units like tractors and vehicles... to the point (not now but sometime in the near future) that the consumers (you, me etc) that prices are so high we decide to fix our lawn mower or something. This is the only way supply will catch up with demand!
Then, eventually, manufacturers will finally supply what the market demands and prices will go down and the whole commercial world will reach equilibrium.

This is going to take a minute though, like two to three years and it is just now starting.
This is what will happen in pretty much every industry because remember, Covid shut the whole world down and the whole world has not reopened yet. Check India or Argentina. Try to travel internationally lol.
And, business will not be the same. Look at how many are working from home now. Take a glance at the tanking of the beauty supply products like make up!
So, from iron ore to lipstick, the whole world is still messed up.

 

Well said. It sucks a little now, but it's gonna suck a whole lot more

 

So what stonks should I buy?

 

You’ve just posted more factual information than any mainstream media or government entities regarding the near term future of our economy. Gonna follow you lol

 

I’m thinking the same lol

 

This story repeats in many industries.

We supply super alloy sheet, plate, bar, forgings, powder and welding consumables to aerospace, power gen, chemical and pharmaceutical industries.

The start of the pandemic was the third strike for aerospace metals. Production had been leveled from the grounding of the 737 Max and the order cancellations that followed. Building turbines is a painfully slow process under normal conditions, which translates into very long lead times at every step in the process. Production had continued through the grounding to satisfy existing orders, which created a massive inventory upstream. With flight cancellations and a prediction that it would be a long time before air travel recovered, airlines moth balled many aircraft and cancelled new planes/engines.

The super alloy industry is relatively small, but almost every application is for an extreme environment/critical use. Recovery is still a year or more out, but as the inventories are being depleted raw materials are surging. Nickel, cobalt, chromium and molybdenum prices have jumped 50-100%. All the same factors driving this...stripped inventory, production/mining/smelting all interrupted then demand increasing.

Generally our industry is viewing last quarter as the bottom, which is a good thing. Establishing a bottom is the beginning of a turn around. 2 to 3 years before full recovery is the optimistic prediction, barring another catastrophe.

 

I purchased a set of Evo Course DakarZeros from Main Line Overland in May...delivery isn't until September. I get it...but I wants me wheels!

 

Supply pipelines and supply chains won't be filled and back to "normal" until 2022.

 

Lol shoulda bought stocks back in March 2020. Stocks are like the Tacomas... not very many good deals right now.

 

Let's make a friendly wager... You have picked 2022 but I need a quarter, 1st, 2nd, etc.
I will say that supply chains and pipelines will not return to some semblance of normality until 2nd qtr of 2023.It is way too f'ed up to fix by 2022. Demand is still going to outstrip supply.

Winner gets 100 internet points!

 

It’s already happening. Purchased this 2016 4Runner Trail Premium in September of 2016 for $37,400 with seven miles on the odometer. 36k miles now.

 

You will see a decrease in lead times as Christmas approaches.

Normalcy will return in 2022. Sales are being lost, profits are being reduced.........$$$$ flow is sluggish. Inflation is beginning. People will tend to reduce spend, especially if price of goods continues to climb.

 

Agreed. Also don't neglect the largest factor in supply chain disruption is not raw materials, labor, warehousing or distribution, it's panic buying/hoarding.

 

Not yet, because people are still willing to pay that price, which means demand has not slowed down. It has to get to a point where people decide the price is too high and that will finally slow it down. No, we are still riding that bull...

There are a couple of leading indicators that I watch:
Random Length Lumber prices and
Baltic Dry Index. Take a look at these two. When they finally cool down then the world will be headed down a long road to normalcy.