Still think TITNC3: Return of the Iceberg was peak

But, they did come up with the selling popcorn idea
GameStop has offered no ideas

 

Boomerfolio Theory Time. I'm making some changes and interested in discussion. This is gonna be a longish one.

Where I'm At Now:
US Stock 65% (VTSAX)
Intl Stock 15% (VTIAX)
Gold: 10% (GLDM and SGOL)
US Bonds: 7.5% (VBTLX)
Intl Bonds: 2.5% (VTABX)

What I'm Changing to Today:
US Stock 70% (VTSAX)
REIT 20% (VGSLX)
Gold: 10% (GLDM and SGOL)

Yes, I'm exiting bonds and international stock completely.

Why:

Bonds:
Rates are already negative real, have been for some time, and I don't think it's changing in the next decade. I think we're staying at LIRP/ZIRP for the next 10 years or more considering the debt, considering the graying of our population and the governments unfunded entitlement expenses moving forward. On top of this long term trend, the near term trend is a combination of inflation and likely rate increases by the Fed next year - small ones, not enough to produce real positive return on bonds but enough to diminish the value of currently issued bonds. Both of these actions will further diminish real returns on bond funds and bonds issued in the past few years. The ONLY plausible argument for bonds right now is if business and commodity markets somehow crash without the Fed using QE/rate decreases as a response and debasing the dollar. I don't see it. Recent history has been the exact opposite.

So I'm leaving bonds entirely.

International Stocks:
Quite simply, every other country on the planet has the same economic problems the US has right now or worse. And most of them, especially Europe and SE Asia, are not nearly as business friendly with policy and regulation and do not issue government debt in the reserve currency they control. I have become a convert of The JL Collins argument that large US multinationals produce adequate exposure to international markets with less risk than holding international companies themselves.

So again, I'm leaving completely.

REITs:
Real Estate looks really appealing right now. Supply is hobbled, demand is high, and expected conditions moving forward revolve around continued ease of purchase (low rates, Govt backed mortgage programs) with no help for adding supply (No decreases in regulation, inflation increases costs of construction, elders increasingly aging in place at home). Landlords/developers adjust rents and sales prices with inflation to ensure profitability, so I expect yields to remain at or above inflation levels the way bonds USED to do. It's also nice that the paper is backed by real property.

Yes, I recognize many large US companies I hold stock in offer real estate exposure as well, and I realize I have real exposure through my home and rentals. I am still tilting over here partially to replace bond yield and also because I am simply that bullish on the sector.

Gold:
No changes. It's true diversification. It maintains its value against inflation over the long term and is non-correlated with Stocks/Bonds/REITs. Added to any portfolio, it increases Sharpe ratio. Rebalancing in and out of the shiny rock should improve return rates in other categories.


So there we are. Thoughts?

 

i like this action

 

Big red sell equals big jump in price? Haha

 

They’re just telling us what color Santa’s coat is in time to have him swing by with our bags

 

One w the camera

 

Seems reasonable, but I honestly haven’t looked ahead on REITs yet. Not caught up on where things stand there. I’ll probably wait to re-evaluate my portfolio until next quarter, see how everything shakes out. I do agree with your thinking of dropping international, the way the large US companies operate, you are getting that exposure.

 

Where is our new GTii holder? He’s gotta be selling

 

Awfully quiet today my dudes…

can’t tell if it’s because you’re making money or losing it.

 

Little bit of both here. Gme green, aso red.

 

Did I miss MOASS…again?

 

nah man, tomorrow

 

I thought for sure ASO would’ve taken off after that earnings report.

 

we are playing in the clown market casino remember?

 

its usually always sunday's tomorrow