Still think TITNC3: Return of the Iceberg was peak

Roses are red
Violets are blue
GTII is screwing with us
And BBIG is too

 

Little boy blew
He needed the money

 

Fed says they may accelerate interest rate hike schedule.

Market dumps.

While this is objectively the right move re:inflation, let's see if:

A) They have the balls to stick to it

and

B) Whether they raise rates enough to matter.

I'm guessing maybe on A and definitely not on B.

 

Well I lost out on F gains but my X is looking good today. Gonna ride her to $30. I say that but will jump out a little sooner ‘cause it’s me lol.



Unfortunately down over $5K in the boomer account so still losing for the day and therefore still fitting right in here.

 

Just rip off the bandaid. Hit us with a nice initial rate hike. We don’t need dance around.

 

Lets see if this hits

 

Oh, it’ll hit
Much much lower

 

Nows a great time to lower your average on GME










Tomorrow will probably be even better

 

Hmmm should I buy gme or googl?

 

We'll see, RSI was under 15 I was hoping it would go a smidge lower.

Believe it or not, still averaging up

 

Good idea in theory, gets tricky in reality.

Interest on the national debt becomes a problem if Gov't bonds pay out more than 2-3%:
https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2021/07/i...ojected-to-nearly-triple-over-the-next-decade

So, the Fed can't just jack us up to, say, 4+% or the debt interest will absolutely slaughter the Federal Budget when current debt rolls over into new, higher interest bonds. That would be like adding another Dept. of Defense to the budget all of a sudden.

So the salient question:

Will creeping up to 2% over the course of 2-3 years substantially slow inflation?

I am going to bet "No" in a world where loaned money can earn back 6%+ in relatively conservative investments like a 60/40 portfolio.

 

That’s where the balance is, 2%, can’t take 2-3 years.

 

It can't?

They're talking about 3 increases of 0.25% each this year. Thats it. And the market is absolutely shitting itself in response.

How many pension funds and 401ks do you think they'll set on fire before backing off? That's the non-numerical cost of these hikes, along with slower economic growth (which exacerbates loss of investment return further).

Feds between a rock and a hard place - try to mitigate inflation and destroy retirement planning or let inflation run and destroy current wage earners?

Either one pisses off someone you don't want pissed.

 

I mean it obviously can, I don’t think it’ll get the job done though. And markets shit themselves, and then they get over it.

 

You found a plane that’s not on fire? Where!

 

100% agree.

All I think is going to come out of this is lower (but still too high) inflation rates along with a punch in the nuts to markets for a while. How long is anyone guess, but I wouldnt be at all shocked to see SP500 test 3500 again.