Still think TITNC3: Return of the Iceberg was peak

We banter back and forth, but please don't insinuate I'm drunk in the middle of the night (even though sometimes I might be). After all, I'm the idiot with the English and History degrees that managed to get into the top 10%

 

That's hilarious. Permission to steal and use it in my everyday life?

 

As long as you don't insinuate I'm sober, ever, then you got a deal.

I'll only allege your inebriation during daylight hours.

 

No deal. Buy gamestonks.

 

Futures is trendin' down

 

Correct. Education is not intelligence, and intelligence is not competence (although intelligence *is* a prerequisite to competence). People conflate the three way too often.

I spent 7 years in higher education. Met many highly educated idiots there. Outside of school, I have met extremely effective (and well off) businessmen with only high school diplomas.

As Ron White put it: "They're smart, but you can't prove it on paper."

This eliminates the surprise when people with a BA in English Literature can't manage financial success. They're educated for sure, they might be intelligent too, but they're not competent at anything the economy needs done urgently enough to pay highly for.

Same with those 400k take-home households drowning in debt: High job competence, poor money management competence. Competence in one area often doesn't translate to other areas.

 

Dammit! Did I miss the dip? Money back under the mattress I guess

 

Look at the Q's
$304

 

Aristocratic families with generational wealth are outliers and by definition not representative of systemic trends.

The top 1% sees a ton of churn. A touch over 1% of people who get into the top 1% remain there longer than 10 years:
https://money.cnn.com/2016/01/07/news/economy/top-1/

The point is, this is not some monolithic group of unchanging people. The top group is changing faces all the time, and it's exactly the mechanic I mentioned before - people progressing their careers and wealth as their lives proceed forward through time.

As for those aristocrats, yes, you're going to have some people who are so elite at providing economic value that society returns so much profit to them in one lifetime it can sustain their lineage forever if it is managed well. That's a good thing. Gates may have come from money and made vast amounts more at Microsoft, and the rest of us got the IT revolution he was an instrumental part of and the massive amounts of value it has created for all of us (which is less visible and taken for granted because it is distributed like you are hoping for).

If you want equal rule of law across all classes, property rights have to extend to highly moneyed peoples as well as us plebes.

The alternative is moral horrors:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dekulakization

This is where class warfare goes, eventually, and why I am never for it in any direction.

 

I'd say the market is still safely "dipping".

 

Limit order at 196.50, but looks improbable today.

 

It's still early. Give it time. lol

 

Closed at $9

Initially the Q's will drop like they are, so you have to grab the high IV right out of the gate, because so many longs will be taking the quick profit so selling pressure in the first 30 minutes or so pushes the index down.
Thats why they're at $303 right now.
The high was 305.76.
Had I pushed the button right from the rip I'd have got $9.50, but I thought it might take out $306.

So they'll drop a little more, but I think the next two days at least we'll get an up move. Above $305 at least.
Thing about trading those options, you really have to know how they act. It's probably the most volatile instrument there is to trade. Daytrade. You can make or lose 50% in a minute. And I mean literally- a minute. With the ones that expire that day.

 

Your talking QQQ. You really wanna play with fire load up TQQQ. It's 3X leveraged.

 

My wife and I got different words in Wordle yesterday. We each refreshed our screens to see who was wrong, but we just got different words.

 

Yeah there's not the liquidity in the options though, and they don't have the dailies. Bid/ask spread is too large also. I like a penny or two.

Here's the classic early reversal on a big gap up day. What I was talking about, when all the selling pressure initially exhausts, the climb kicks back in.

 

Just real quick as an example of the volatility
Here's the time and sales on tomorrow's expiration $307 calls.

If you let that reversal confirm itself, ie not try to time the perfect bottom, the calls were $237/ contract
A quick scalp 23 minutes later you get $314.
About 40%
That's hard to do with any other instrument.

But that's why it's very important to have lots of screen time and know how the Q's behave.
I have another monitor that I keep the level 2 time and sales of Google, TSLA, NVDA, AMZN, and Apple on.
When I see strong buying (or selling) in those, they typically lead QQQ by a few seconds.
Because the nasdaq 100 is price weighted, basically 6 or 7 stocks make up the lions share of the price action on QQQ.



But as you can see, you can do small one contract trades all day long, and make (or lose) a substantial percentage of the contract price.
That's why when I try to teach friends, I strongly recommend only using one contract at a time to start.
It's not easy, make no mistake about that.
When you can really clean up is when you have a good feeling for the market sentiment, directionally, then instead of taking a small scalp, you let the options run.

Today will be a good day to do that. So before I go out and work in the yard, I'm setting a buy order for tommors $305's at $1.20
They're $2.70 as I type. But one nice down spike, and I'll get filled.
Anyway, you guys have a good day. TTY'all later
G/l