Still think TITNC3: Return of the Iceberg was peak

@tcBob been in here quite a bit today. He leveraged TW to bet on moass and he knows it's comin' soon

 

A lot of green on the board this morning.

 

Personal spending MoM beat. Core PCE was lower then last month. Markets like that. For now.

 

Yeah, because it shows the GDP drops were due to import/export pricing, not so much domestic strife.

 

That's good, after taking care of my loan app for my equipment yesterday, Kubota dealership said business has been very slow, of course were experiencing droughts right now, but the general consensus is that owners are holding on to older machines because of the costs, newer emissions restrictions, fuel prices etc. as well.

 

Household savings is down though. To me that's always a pre-indicator of domestic strife. Still higher then historical averages so maybe we'll be fine. I still think this is a dead cat bounce. Time will tell if we get the NASDAQ to the 10K mark or not. For my account I hope not. For my ego I hope we do. lol

 

Don’t drink and drive this holiday weekend.
https://twitter.com/theaviationbeat/status/1529986381883363361?s=21

 

Overall picture remains very uncertain.

I think the big question is if inflation peaked two months ago. If it continues to decline, the fed can justify less aggression on rates and wages can catch up with new pricing.

If not, all the Really Bad predictions become much more likely.

 

And that's the example right there. New equipment purchases may be down, but fuel purchases are up and overall spending stays healthy.

 

I think they'll continue with rate hikes regardless. I also think inflation will continue to grow but not at the rate we've seen the past 6 months. The FED needs to contain any chance of hyper-inflation and the best way to do that is jack rates.

 

They will continue with hikes, I read through some of transcript summaries from an article from thier last meeting.

 

BBIG in barcode mode. Cool. I won't miss anything today. lol

 

I'm sure the big heagie guys are already taking this into account and it's automatically figured into thier algorithms.

 

We shall see. I'm not necessarily saying they don't raise (it would probably be good for them to do so, even if some of the economic worries we see right now dissipate), but we may see substantial multi-month pauses between rate changes, etc. if inflation begins to show a downtrend.

A substantial portion of economists think the neutral rate is pretty low at the moment (2.5-3%), so if they can work their way to that even if inflation moderates, that's almost definitely a positive.

 

Also this:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/27/the...gn-that-price-increases-could-be-slowing.html

So we may be decelerating already. Just something to keep in mind. This is probably some portion of today's market happiness.

 

Then there's this. Mixed signals fr sure. lol

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/27/hom...ir-prices-at-the-fastest-clip-since-2019.html

 

No choice with mortgage rates at 5+%.

Only cash buyers shop for homes on total price. Everyone else payment-shops because they (rationally) assume this is a 15-30 year commitment and you need to have some way to live and not be house-poor during that 30-50% of your life.

Mortgage interest doubling adds substanially to monthly payment. A 320k loan at 2.75% is about $1600/month. Same loan at 5.25% is $2050/month, a 25% increase in payment. Taking the loan amount down to 250k gets you back to that same monthly payment as before.

If you want to sell right now, you gotta get that payment in range.

 

Works

Works amazing when you live off grid. Just can’t use your toaster.

 

YOU MISSED THE SQUEEZE