Keep it or not?

I have a hard time reading or believing any reporting on the EV thing. I can believe that in the longer term we may end up with a bit cleaner air, but at what cost? It just seems like we are trading one thing for another and not making a lot of real progress. Progress of any kind is good, I just don't see it as enough.

 

Planet of the Humans is an interesting movie about renewable energy go check it out if you haven't seen it.
Probably free on Prime or YouTube.... worth the 90 minute view...

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/en...ve-shut-since-global-pandemic-why-2022-06-17/

I don't see any of the reasons for those being shutdown as "not allowed to drill". Notice a recurring theme of unable to sell or converting to renewable production?

June 17 (Reuters) - Since the onset of the global pandemic, the United States has lost nearly 1 million barrels per day of oil refining capacity, with more set to be shuttered in the next few years. These are the refiners that have closed or cut capacity:

LYONDELLBASELL HOUSTON:

CAPACITY: 263,776 barrel-per-day (bpd)

Lyondell said in April of 2022 that it would permanently shut the refinery by year-end 2023, as it was unable to find a buyer and did not want to invest to keep the facility open.


The refinery could be converted into a processor of pyrolysis oils, which can be used to make renewable diesel, but that study will take years. Lyondell could permanently close the refinery ahead of the December 2023 deadline if one of several major production units is shut and cannot quickly return to production. read more

PHILLIPS 66 ALLIANCE, BELLE CHASSE, LA.

CAPACITY: 255,000 bpd

Phillips 66 announced in November 2021 that it would not reopen the Alliance refinery, which was shut in mid-August ahead of Hurricane Ida. The 50-year-old refinery was severely damaged after several feet of water flooded it during the storm.


LIMETREE BAY, ST. CROIX, USVI:

CAPACITY: 210,000 bpd

Limetree Bay Energy shut its St. Croix refinery due to financial problems in May 2021 after only operating for a few months, due to operational setbacks. The refinery had already been idle for a decade before restart. The plant was sold to a Jamaican oil storage facility in December 2021. read more

SHELL CONVENT, ST. JAMES, LOUISIANA
CAPACITY: 240,000 bpd

Shell announced in November 2020 it would be shuttering the refinery after attempts to sell the plant between July and October were unsuccessful. The refinery became unprofitable as COVID-19 spread across the United States.


Shell planned to try to divest the refinery as it considers closing facilities it cannot sell, the company told investors.

MARATHON, MARTINEZ CALIFORNIA, AND GALLUP, NEW MEXICO
CAPACITY: 161,000 bpd (Martinez); 27,000 bpd (Gallup)

Marathon Petroleum said in August 2020 that it would permanently close two refineries in Martinez, California, and Gallup, N.M. in response to lower fuels demand, after idling the facilities following COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States.

The company is converting the Martinez refinery to produce 260 million gallons per year of renewable diesel starting in 2023.

PHILLIPS 66 RODEO, CALIFORNIA
Capacity: 120,200 bpd

U.S. refiner Phillips 66 plans to fully convert its Rodeo, California, crude oil refinery into a renewable fuels plant using cooking oil and food wastes beginning in 2024.

HOLLYFRONTIER, CHEYENNE, WYOMING
Capacity: 52,000 bpd

HollyFrontier Corp said in June 2020 it would convert its Cheyenne refinery into a renewable diesel plant that would produce 6,000 bpd of renewable diesel. The company ceased refinery operations at Cheyenne the following month, making it the first U.S. refinery to close in 2020.

CALCASIEU REFINING - LAKE CHARLES, LOUISIANA
Capacity: 135,500 bpd

Calcasieu Refining shut its Lake Charles plant in early August of 2020, according to the Louisiana Department on Environmental Quality, citing demand loss during the pandemic.

 

What is incorrect about my above statement? I am open to learn from someone with much more real world experience than me. Are you claiming we don't heavily subsidize gas or claiming that the economic externalities of production and utilization don't exist?

 

Gasoline at the fuel station is heavily taxed in the US - perhaps not to the extent of our Western Europe counterparts. Oil production is heavily taxed. To drill and produce on US federal land (onshore and offshore is taxed via lease agreements). We pay the government for gasoline production, there is no subsidy in the “real” world.
I also have access to a few hundred recently built and currently operating massive windmills. They produce a lot of green electricity. However, many regulations exist throughout the US to protect electrical utility companies from “competition” for their electrons with their established utility customers. Thus our windmills are negatively impacted and we are unable to “sell” much of this green energy load. The distribution line losses over the 100 mile transmission to a major sub-station result in negative ROI without the current federal subsidies.

 

Well duh, basic supply and demand. Prior to the pandemic refineries were increasing capacity, there was no demand during the pandemic, no one was driving, no one was flying, no one was really using fossil fuels at that time because everything was basically shut down. BUT none of the are shutting down because of EV and renewable energy. Now that the pandemic is basically over and everything is ramping up there isn't enough supply, add in the energy needs of Europe due to the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and demand is only going up.

 

i agree and OPEC also decreased production and demand is back but their supply is still low and they refuse to do much more than compress 3 months of increases into 2. My point still stands that covid ultimately killed a lot of domestic refinement that is not returning. Not now and not in the near future. Renewable energy sources and “clean energy” are effectively gaining “‘market share” every single year. I’m not buying an EV today or tomorrow, but i think the writing is on the wall for where the market will ultimately be in 10 years, both domestically and in Europe.

 

I wish we could go back in time a couple years when I was burning 91 octane running 91 tune because it was cheap! Make my Toyota drivable again!

 

USA headquartered automakers are significantly influenced by government subsidies and likely remaining in favorable opinion of legislators to preserve the availability of federal bailouts during financial crisis. I “predict” (but do NOT “know” for certain) that the true mid-term (10 year) future of EV and hybrid vehicle maturation is being defined by the large automakers in Japan and Germany within the next three years. I too look forward to see what happens.

 

We are taxed at the point of consumption / sale with a gas tax but the domestic production itself is heavily subsidized. A conservative estimate puts the U.S. total at around $20.5 billion annually, including $14.7 billion in federal subsidies and $5.8 billion in state-level incentives. 80 percent of this goes to oil and gas (with the rest supporting coal), and most of the subsidies are in the form of tax deductions and exemptions that result in massive avoided costs for fossil fuel producers. It is a part of the reason why we have some of the cheapest gas available to our citizenry in the world. Subsidizing domestic production to ultimately keep costs down for consumers is a good thing.

 

The consumer is taxed at the point of consumption. However, in addition the energy producer is taxed on every bbl of oil and every mmbtu of natural gas produced. We are taxed again when this oil is refined into motor fuel. This $20 billion annual number is small compared to the taxes the industry pays annually.
Every US business is allowed to deduct capital expenditure that will increase revenue (and taxes paid). This applies whether I invest $500,000 to build another chain donut store, $5 million for a new oil well, or $150 million for a new automobile manufacturing plant.
Please don’t lets these political rhetoric sources of information continue to influence your objectivity.

 

To take this a little further off tangnet:

I installed a smart whole house shut-off valve right at the water softener.

Realized the water softener was leaking.

Realized that the position of the bypass valve touching the wall or not, at a specific angle or straight, slightly tilted up or down, either sped up or slowed down the leak.

Realized that I have 8,000 o-rings from various places and jobs and tried several different ones to see if it would stop the leak. Nothing made it better and the WaterWeld on the shelf kept looking more and more like an option at 1:00 am. Before that, I got desperate and tried a flat rubber washer AND an o-ring. It still leaked. Of course it did.

Realized that I might just be okay with the leak? It was just dripping and into a tray that dumped into the brine tank.

Realized at 1:30 am that the internet said to bypass the bypass valve with a direct installation of the 1" adapter to the inlet/outlet valve to see if the o-rings are the problem or the valve body. It still leaked.

Realized at 2:00 am that a new bypass valve, new main valve, and seal kit was 3/4 of the cost of this water softener that I just bought 2 years ago. 1 year warranty on parts, 3 year warranty on electronics, 10 year warranty on brine canister. So, pointless.

Realized at 7:00 am that I was getting a new water softener from Lowes. Figured I would upgrade a little and get a smart one. I handpicked a box that was unscathed (this is really important for later), loaded all 120lbs of it upright (to not rattle the brine tank around) in the Tacoma with the OEM trifold opened up all the way. This would not have happened in the station wagon. Did I mention I bought a station wagon?

Realized at 9:00 am that the whole house shut off-valve would have to be moved to the outlet side of the water softener. It will still do its job of protecting the house but leaves the water softener out of the loop.

Realized at 9:45 am that the new water softener was leaking from a chamber fastened with two screws and an o-ring (yes, I opened it). No amount of tightening or even application of torque got the leak to stop. It is a chamber on the regen side so maybe I can live with it? I called the mfg. hotline and he put me on a waiting list for a new assembly...they are on backorder. He told me to bypass the water softener I have owned for 2 hours until the new part came in. But don't worry, they are getting parts EVERY DAY. But it might be a couple of months...

Realized at 10:30 am that the lady at Lowes said I had 30 days to return it. I manhandled the 120 lb softener that now weighed about 200 lbs with the brine canister full of water to the garage door. The juxtaposition / parallel antithesis here is beautiful. Nothing like how I carefully loaded it standing up, strapped it standing up, and gingerly unloaded it standing up. I dropped the tailgate and shoved it into the bed on its side with water gushing everywhere. This would not have happened in the station wagon. Did I mention I bought a station wagon?

Realized at 11:00 am that Lowes does not give two shits about returns. I had to get a cart from gardening because the lumber carts are not the right shape. If you know, you know. I pulled the still gushing water softener out of the truck, dumped it on the cart, stacked the carefully cut open cardboard box under, on top, and around the cart watching as it became water logged, and threw a clear bag of parts into the water softener. I stopped 3 times to pick up pieces and cardboard on the way in. The woman at the return looked at me, didn't ask any questions, and started the return.

Realized at 11:10 am that picking the most perfect package means nothing and grabbed the one in the front. I finished the return, loaded it gingerly standing up again, then drove home. I unloaded it the same way I loaded it, reinstalled everything, watched with apprehension as the first regen cycle ran through with my finger on the part that leaked the last time the entire time. Dry. I finished the install, cleaned up the garage, put my tools away, and told my wife and kids they could finally use the water. This would not have happened in the station wagon. Did I mention I bought a station wagon?

Realized at 1:00 pm that A.O Smith thinks the term "smart" in relation to their water softeners means that there is no app, no control of anything remotely...just an email that is sent to me from the unit when the salt is low. I shit you not. It sends me an email.

 

I've likened my Tacoma to my 1984 Camaro I had as a teenager.

Camaro was the 5.0 V8 4 barrel carb. Off the assembly line it was 170-180hp.

My Tacoma (single cab 2wd) has the 2.7, a tad more than half of my Camaro, and is close to 170HP. Different style etc of course but....

 

You, sir, are the daily internet winner.

Some things are made worse by technology.

 

The government won't give them the permits.
On new drilling, the government gave them the leases, but refuses to give them the permits to drill. Hence, companies are holding back.

 

Selling (or having trouble selling because no investor see's a long term future) or converting refineries to process renewables is not companies "holding back". It's investors that actually know how to think and plan multiple fiscal quarters and forecast demand in advance clearly seeing where the market is headed. Toyota just tripled its US battery plant investment to nearly $4 billion dollars (Toyota announced the initial $1.29 billion investment last fall). Do you think they and others are going to continue to invest in ICE development? Why do you think they have now tripled the investment plan in less than a years time? Do you really think investors aren't throwing money at domestic oil refineries because their isn't any oil constantly flowing in to be refined, or it being due to long-term demand being forecasted to decrease in the next 5, 10, 15 years?

https://www.reuters.com/technology/...tment-38-billion-us-battery-plant-2022-08-31/

 

Back to the question at hand…….as said you are the only one who can make this decision.

I am retired and my wife and I have no children at home. We have a 2018 wrangler, a 2014 F250 and had my 2017 Tacoma. In the last 3 years I hardly ever drove it. It looked great sitting in the garage. I finally made the decision I would rather have the money in the bank instead of a vehicle not getting driven. Someone else will enjoy an almost brand new truck with only 35,000 miles. I sold it at a dealer in PA that gave me the most money. In June 2017 I paid 37k and sold it for 34k. I have no regrets.

 

Sell it. You can invest the money you get from it. By the time they are old enough to drive, you will have more money to put into their first car.

 

You completely ignore the realities of affordability of EVs to the average consumer. The investment in one technology doesn't show the whole picture.
EVs serve people very well. Except when long road trios are concerned. The long recharging times still turn many people off. Let alone that it has been repeatedly shown that fast charging is never good for batteries in general. Or that you can't always keep them topped up like you can with the ICE. You must run them down then recharge them. If you want maximum life from your $15,000 battery pack.
Yes the prices will go down. But when and hiw much is the complete unknown?
Most of the rare earth elements are owned by unfriendly foreign governments.

i would not want to be caught low on a charge in a winter climate, where running out of electricity while in a snowstorm, could be fatal. Again, topping up fir peice of mind diminishes the batteries life time.

The reality that an EV requires new batteries after approx 10 years of ownership, equal to the value of the vehicle itself, makes EVs almost worthless at this point in their development.
For people that buy vehicles fir long term ownership, EVs will cost you dearly when the batteries need replacing.
The recycling of the batteries is not very common right now, and pretty well non-existent in the vast majority of jurisdictions worldwide.
The infrastructure is another issue that has never been adequately addressed. You can build all the charging stations you want, but the electricity is not there. Briwn outs are occurring already without the millions of future EVs to be made a purchased.
The electricity production will have to be subsidized by the user in higher rates. The cheap "fillup" will disappear with these expenditures. As well as the increase in taxes to make up for the lost tax revenue from gasoline and diesel sales.

Toyota is investing in ICEs as well as Hydrogen Engines. While make much more sense., in my mind. The most abundant element in the Universe, quick refueling (similar time as ICEs) l, can be kept topped up for those in climates make it safer to do so, requires much smaller batteries, so less rare earth elements, similar engine design for simplicity and cheaper cist of ownership.

The mining and processing of the huge amounts of rare earth elements to produce the battery packs. Is one of the most environmentally toxic processes that you will ever find.

You also ignore the fact that oil is used in a lot more products than gasoline or diesel. Less than 50% of oil is used for fuel. Just look at all the products in the EVs that are made from some form of oil based plastics. Then look at every store in the world and see all the end products that were made from oil.

Look around your home. Same thing.

Billions of vehicles worldwide still use oil products as fuel, and they are still selling. The population is buying them, and the need will increase. Just like the need for EVs.

Investing in EVs doesn't change that overnight.

We still need oil for decades to come.