Still think TITNC3: Return of the Iceberg was peak

"Don't really care what you call it, long as I'm makin' money."

 

guess not buying SIGA on monday was a bad call

 

My boys $ICLN and $VNQ coming off the bench today.

 

I still have a fair bit of money left to buy into the market. August doesen't get a FOMC meeting? Is it worth it to buy in more now (because you cant time the market blah blah blah) or would it be pertinent to wait a few more weeks to see if we slide back lower? At the earliest I would do next week, maybe monday...but we've climbed quite a bit from the lows, and waiting till september? to buy in and see how Q3 goes is a long way away.

Context: this is all short term time horizon lol, like 10 months. so i am aware im playing with fire here

 

That's about how I feel now plus the green new deal coming up maybe. I don't know.

 

If you're on a 10 month horizon put that shit in a high yield savings and call it a day. You know this.

 

orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr hope the market recovers some amount more than .05%, in which case ive come out ahead. A "high yield" savings account literally loses money. There has to be a better place to park 15k for 10 months that doesn't guarantee erode 8% over that time frame

of course its a gamble. thats why we're all here. Im just trying to make the most logical gamble

 

So which is it? Gambling money or money you need in 10 months? It can't be both.

 

gambling was the wrong word

accepting the risk of loss while mitigating it as much as possible, with the hope of increasing the value of the asset over that time frame. The time frame just happens to not be " 30 years from now when i retire"

 

The risk is what you get paid for.

If you want things reasonably safe for the next 10 months, I-bonds are probably your lowest risk, highest guaranteed return combo.

You will forfeit some return with an early cash out at 10mo.

If you're willing to fully risk on, pick your preferred fund or stock based on your homework, but understand anything other than cash or bonds could be cut in half 10mo from now.

What is your intent for this money 10 months from now if I may inquire?

 

can only do 10k in ibonds, plus he'd only get half the rate and would have to pay tax as well

 

15k, but gotta get that last 5k via paper bonds.

And I agree with you 100%. Its not a good instrument for other applications, but in his circumstances it might offer some inflation mitigation alongside needed security.

I don't bother with Ibonds because my stuff is on a 25 year timeline and over that span your typical Bogle/Passive mix is going to beat the living shit outta them. But time horizon and dollar limits matter.

 

i bonds are not a bad idea, limit of 10k though, and youre right, 3 month hit on interest. Basicially a 5.6% rate at that point

Hopefully beginning a big lifestyle change, which is unfortunately predicated on the rest of my brokerage acct coming back up to some reasonable level thats not a 13% loss. I certainly dont *need* to, but i really want to. And im not going to take a 15%ish percent loss at a arbitrary date just to start this. so if it means i have to delay further and keep working while *hopefully* the market comes back up to the point where markett value and cost basis are at a level i can stomach selling at a loss (maybe 5%?), im kind of stuck there. Yes im aware ive already kind of backed myself into a corner with the risk of loss that ive accepted and has now happened.

 

ahh right. I just put a couple grand in them to let it ride out the rest of this "term" because we all know shit aint getting better over night. So I get a solid 2 years of some protection so that the money wouldn't just rot away in savings

 

If you're willing to accept bull risk I'd just grab VTI or 50/50 SCHD/SPYD depending on how you like to play.

If you really wanna risk it for the biscuit, grab that triple leveraged NASDAQ ETF.

 

ive been buying VTI since the start of the decline, because im over buying individual stocks (except for my WHR play that paid off but was short lived when i got stop lossed in an am swing)
I dont want to be overallocated on tech lol.
So really, ya im just trying to intellignetly time more buys into VTI hoping for it to keep running up lol.

 

Im gonna go ahead and show my hand: I think the bottom on VTI was June. I think its only going up from here - in fits and starts of course. Do with that what you will. I've been 100% stock/REIT for about 6wks now, and I'm staying there til we return to ATHs.

 

totally fair. thats does seem like the direction its trending, but a month of slow up ticks is not the greatest predictor. Recessions are always called after we've been in them. So its justifiable to think that if everyone is now screaming recession, yep, weve already been in it.
It was easy to buy every time it dropped a % or two on the way down...now ive got fomo trigger finger fear and i dont want to be buying stupidly on the rise up

 

Yeah. I get to ignore that worry on a 20+ year horizon.

 

im young, and the recent couple years' rally and general market over exuberance really had me hoping id squeeze out a quick 15-20% while i save this money, and now im just begging it to go back to cost basis lol.