Still think TITNC3: Return of the Iceberg was peak

It's not gonna happen period, lol. At least not any time soon.

See all the dips that don't go down to the trendline?

Not every pullback is 2008. Pretty much every indicator is solid right now with the only real issue being inflation. That's not gonna peel 50% off the S+P, esp. not after a 25% drop that trampolined off better than expected earnings/profits/consumer spending.

 

You'll enjoy this:
https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

 

The problem was, 2008 was never fixed. Bandaid, yes, but never fixed. You can only kick the can down the road for....in this case about 14 years until something finally gives.

CMBS, SLABS, Mortgages, Derivative swaps. One of those will finally pop and topple the whole cartel.

 

$ATXG closing at $30 today is lol.

Even so, if you bought at the $7.50 IPO price, you still 4x'd.

 

One other thing, which drop is the most recent drop on the last chart? It would have to be the 2020 COVID recession, because that drop was a lot more than the one in 2022. I only see 1 recent decline.

 

I dunno, I just like pictures that confirm my bias. I didn't even really look at it, I just liked that it goes down. Lol it says 2022 right on the graph in big bold letters

 

Bank of Japan hasbeen kicking it just fine for 30 years.

I don't see why they would. Mortgages issued since the GFC are to much higher quality borrowers and on much more strict terms than the subprime insanity.

No other sector besides housing is nearly capitalized enough to blow up the system.

 

The third chart doesn’t say 2022 anywhere unless I’m missing it. That’s showing 2020.

 

A quadrillion dollars in over-leveraged derivatives would like to have a word.

Or how about being able to walk up to JP morgan and get 120:1 leverage to go twaddle about in the markets.

Again, it doesn't have to be anything catastrophic, but something small will finally give and collapse the whole mess of finance that's run on margin and leverage with, quite frankly, very few real assets as collateral relative to the amount of money out there.

 

One year on the S&P looks pretty close to me

 

Most of it is self-canceling.

 

Damn it I think I’m arguing on the internet. Sad.

This chart that you posted can’t be showing the current drop because 2020 was bigger so there would be 2 recent drops:

 

Most of it, but not all of it. And a Quadrillion dollars is a pretty big number for even a little bit to not have proper swaps/hedges against it.

FINRA and the DTCC couldn't even properly execute a split via dividend a month ago, you think they have any idea what's going on the dark markets? I would imagine not much.

 

I guess we go back and look at when the S&P was 2,000. Covid dip in Mar puts it at 2500 so it's probably that dip

 

Evidence of inadequate hedging?

Then what's the problem? If the admin/reg agencies dont know about this stuff just delete the files and keep on trucking.

 

Sure thing, let me call Jamie Dimon and get a quick look at the books and I'll get right back to you on that one.

If they're not hedging stocks properly, and we can prove that (ala game stop) I think it's reasonable to assume there's shenanigans going on in the derivs market we don't have visibility on.

 

That is indeed a big problem.

 

Let me know when you do.

Because Jamie and Co are VERY interested in not self-immolating their business.

 

My hope is that at some point in the near future they won't have a choice.