Space and Science BS Thread

Crewed Dreamchaser is at least a decade, probably more, away. Unless of course BO and their buddies become super efficient and focused on actual delivery of products and services, which is highly doubtful from available information.

 

Not with them more focused on building giant blue buildings in FL.

 

Care to lay odds on a successful Star liner launch? Without it and both Starship and Dream Chaser years away from crewed launch that sounds like a recipe for more crew dragons. Since those only launch on F9 would there be any interest in a more rapidly reusable methalox version of F9?

 

I think Starliner will be successful in that the two astronauts get to the ISS and return safely. It's currently scheduled for NET April/May '23 but who knows when it will fly . I do know SpX will complete their first six flights of the CCP-1 contract before Boeing completes their crewed test flight and i would put $$ on that bet.

I think crewed Starship is much more likely than a crewed Dreamchaser. Cargo Dreamchaser is waiting on a certified Vulcan rocket and although there are two BE-4 engines being tested for the first flight currently scheduled for Q1 next year, there's no guarantee all will go well or that other BE-4 engines are going to be delivered in a timely manner. I think once Starship launches and if there's no major malfunction we're going to see a rapid series of cargo then crewed flights and iterations to meet the Artemis III goal before 2030.

I think there's no way SpaceX would reengineer an F9 to use methalox. The reason Raptor is using methalox is the the distant goal of fabricating methane on Mars using the Sabatier Process. The only reason others are developing methalox engines is to be cool.

 

I fully expect a couple of Starliners to energetically disassemble themselves. And the nay sayers will say nay. Then one will complete the mission and the nay sayers will say it's a fluke. And then they will start flying without disassembly and the nay sayers will move on, forgetting that they ever said nay.

 

Are you thinking of Starliner (Boeing’s conventional crew capsule) or SpaceX’s Starship?

 

https://twitter.com/nasaames/status/1608172204885172226?s=46&t=BjBdGsm0I1mNTVx0qmbxcg

 

Are you thinking crewed Starliner? Because they have a long row to hoe to get it even reliable for cargo missions.

 

Stupid names.

 

I guess I’m more optimistic about both Starliner(in spite of Boeing) and Dream Chaser(in spite of BO) but while the path for them to crewed flights might be shorter and more direct it’s unknown whether that will result in an earlier timeline to crewed launch than Starship. Neither of those have to deal with stage 0 issues or face nearly as much resistance to a launch license but they also aren’t even remotely as transparent in process so we can’t even make guesses regarding their progress. We hear little and see less. We see lots at at a Boca Chica but since it’s a more exhaustive process it’s impossible to gage where they are along it. They get more done but there’s more to do.

 

I do also think that the "issue" we see at Starbase/Boca Chica is due to the fact they have to build it all out of tidal mud flats. At KSC, where Boeing and BO are, they don't have to worry about GSE. It's all been done for them by NASA/Air Force. All they have to do is build equipment to fit the GSE already there. SpaceX has taken advantage of that too, even with the Stage 0 at 39A. But, I think that's what makes what SpaceX has done in TX that more remarkable is that they have gotten so far, so fast WHILE building their own GSE and all the hiccups and issues along the way.

 

Do you want to buy a used rocket? One owner, no explosions.


I drove out to Boca Chica, because I'm that kind of nerd. The launch facilities are all right there next to the road. I wouldn't call the areas where the facilities are a mud flat, but they are definitely surrounded on all sides by wetlands. At 25 miles away from Brownsville it's close to a population center.

 

Was this today?!

 

No, it was back in May. I wanted to see the full stack, but just missed it. The second picture at least has both stages though. It's 1,700 miles from my house so it's not like I can just pop over. An absolute bucket list item for me is to see one launch.

 

Oh. I was watching Starbase Live today and thought I had a chance to see your Tesla.

 

The American and JAXA Exp 68/69 crew members on Christmas:

 

Finish this sentence:

If elon keeps losing money…

 

… he’ll be broke.