Still think TITNC3: Return of the Iceberg was peak

chigolf · Jan 18, 2023

98tacoma27 said: ↑

Shit box rental...
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Is that abbott labs?

98tacoma27 · Jan 18, 2023

chigolf said: ↑

Is that abbott labs?
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No

98tacoma27 · Jan 18, 2023

lt's a high school

chigolf · Jan 18, 2023

98tacoma27 said: ↑

lt's a high school
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ok kind of looked like it. Get some Giordanos stuffed pizza while your here. At least its not freezing just clouds for days. Cheers

TreeFortRichard · Jan 18, 2023

I think this market dip is brought to us by fed Chairman Powell testing positive for Covid.

TreeFortRichard · Jan 18, 2023

chigolf said: ↑

ok kind of looked like it. Get some Giordanos stuffed pizza while your here. At least its not freezing just clouds for days. Cheers
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Agree. Great pizza. Had some this summer They fold the crust over and stuff it a little. They also really stressed the fact it takes 45 minutes to an hour to make a pizza and please be patient.

BYJOSHCOOK · Jan 18, 2023

chigolf said: ↑

ok kind of looked like it. Get some Giordanos stuffed pizza while your here. At least its not freezing just clouds for days. Cheers
Click to expand...

TreeFortRichard said: ↑

Agree. Great pizza. Had some this summer They fold the crust over and stuff it a little. They also really stressed the fact it takes 45 minutes to an hour to make a pizza and please be patient.

Click to expand...

Giordanos is very good, but yeah there were people complaining about how long it took when I was there Just have a beer and calm down

98tacoma27 · Jan 18, 2023

chigolf said: ↑

ok kind of looked like it. Get some Giordanos stuffed pizza while your here. At least its not freezing just clouds for days. Cheers
Click to expand...

TreeFortRichard said: ↑

Agree. Great pizza. Had some this summer They fold the crust over and stuff it a little. They also really stressed the fact it takes 45 minutes to an hour to make a pizza and please be patient.

Click to expand...

BYJOSHCOOK said: ↑

Giordanos is very good, but yeah there were people complaining about how long it took when I was there Just have a beer and calm down
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Agreed. I had some the last time I was out here.

TreeFortRichard · Jan 18, 2023

@theesotericone
And so it begins...the recovery right?

Microsoft to cut 10,000 jobs, as PC sales, cloud growth decline
Daniel Howley·Technology EditorWed, January 18, 2023 at 9:22 AM EST
4–5 minutes
Microsoft (MSFT) announced on Wednesday that it is laying off 10,000 workers as part of an effort to cut costs at the tech behemoth. The layoffs impact roughly 4.5% of Microsoft’s 221,000 total employees.

The cuts are expected to be completed by Microsoft's fiscal Q3, which ends March 31. Microsoft says the layoffs will result in a $1.2 billion charge, representing -$0.12 per share.
Click to expand...

theesotericone · Jan 18, 2023

TreeFortRichard said: ↑

@theesotericone
And so it begins...the recovery right?

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The put /call ratio of all three major indices is still way high. We're not even fucking close to recovering.

TreeFortRichard · Jan 18, 2023

kairo[OP] said: ↑

Probably headed to find a portillos dog
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Up over 10% since I took a majority stake...

TreeFortRichard · Jan 18, 2023

theesotericone said: ↑

The put /call ratio of all three major indices is still way high. We're not even fucking close to recovering.
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That's the Central Banks...IT'S ALL THEIR FAULT
Black Rock has been calling them out for almost 4 months now..they are in an IDGAF money mode...get it all now and everybody burns...
Nov 22, 2022

forexlive.com

BlackRock - central banks are causing recessions rather than coming to the rescue | Forexlive
0
~3 minutes
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Advisory warning: FOREXLIVE™ is not an investment advisor, FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect's individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.

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Finance Magnates CY Limited
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Nov 30, 2022

reuters.com

BlackRock backs banks, cuts European, EM debt as part of 'new playbook'
2 minute readNovember 30, 20224:49 PM UTCLast Updated ago
~3 minutes
NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Asset manager BlackRock has said 2023 will require a new investment playbook, backing banks and energy sectors to do well, while slapping 'underweights' on longer-term European government bonds and emerging market local currency debt.

The BlackRock Investment Institute (BII) said in its 2023 global outlook that while the case for investment credit had brightened and short-term government debt yields looked attractive, the pressures of higher interest rates would weigh on longer-term sovereign bonds.

"The macro damage we expect for next year is yet to be fully reflected in market pricing," said Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at the BII.

BlackRock expects global central banks to over-tighten financial conditions in their fight against stubbornly high inflation to the point of causing a recession next year.

It said it therefore maintained a tactical underweight on developed market equities, while recommending investors to gravitate towards high-quality corporate debt and short-dated U.S. Treasury bonds, given the returns they offer after this year's rapid increase in interest rates.

"We are going to see inflation falling ... but at the same time we don't think we're going to be settling back to the 2% world we've been accustomed to, at least not anytime soon," BII head Jean Boivin said at a media briefing in New York.

"We don't think the inflation outcome we'll end up living with, which is going to be more like 3% than 2%, is reflected in markets at this juncture," he said.

Sustained higher inflation could mean central banks will unlikely cut interest rates rapidly to support contracting economies, BlackRock said, so the old playbook of adding exposure to long-term and safe government bonds in a recessionary environment may not work next year.

"Policy rates may stay higher for longer than the market is expecting ... As a result, we remain underweight long term government bonds in tactical and strategic portfolios," BII said in its outlook report.

As part of that stance, it has moved underweight on longer term European government debt as well as UK Gilts. Gilts have seen a strong rebound in recent weeks after been thrown into turmoil by the unfunded tax plans of former UK leader Liz Truss and her finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng.

Reporting by Marc Jones and Davide Barbuscia Editing by Karin Strohecker and Mark Potter
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Dec 9, 2022

fortune.com

BlackRock says throw out your old investment playbook, we’re headed for a ‘new regime of greater macro and market volatility’
Will Daniel
5–7 minutes
BlackRock’s top minds seem worried. Investment strategists at the world’s largest asset manager warned of a coming recession, stubborn inflation, and a new era that won’t be so kind to investors in their 2023 Global Outlook released this week.

“The Great Moderation, the four-decade period of largely stable activity and inflation, is behind us,” vice chairman Philipp Hildebrand and a team of top executives wrote. “The new regime of greater macro and market volatility is playing out. A recession is foretold.”

Hildebrand and his team argue that the Great Moderation—a period of low inflation and steady economic growth—allowed stocks and bonds to flourish in a way that won’t be possible moving forward.

For investors, this new economic era will require a fresh, flexible strategy that involves selective stock picking and more active portfolio management.

“We don’t see the sustained bull markets of the past. That’s why a new investment playbook is needed,” they wrote. “What worked in the past won’t work now.”

A new era
Three major “regime drivers” are set to keep inflation elevated above central banks’ targets, subdue economic growth, and make it more difficult for investors to turn a profit for years to come, according to BlackRock.

First, aging populations will shrink workforces and force governments to spend more to care for the elderly, causing worker shortages and reduced production.

Second, tensions between global superpowers signal that we’ve entered into a “new world order,” where globalized supply chains that once helped reduce the price of goods may be broken.

“This is, in our view, the most fraught global environment since World War II,” Hildebrand and his team wrote. “We see geopolitical cooperation and globalization evolving into a fragmented world with competing blocs. That comes at the cost of economic efficiency.”

Finally, a more rapid transition to clean energy will ultimately be inflationary unless a new stream of investment flows into carbon-neutral solutions.

“If high-carbon production falls faster than low-carbon alternatives are phased in, shortages could result, driving up prices and disrupting economic activity,” they wrote. “The faster the transition, the more out of sync the handoff could be—meaning more volatile inflation and economic activity.”

Pricing the damage
BlackRock also broke down three themes to help prepare investors for the new normal in their 2023 forecast.

First, the asset manager’s experts argued that factoring in the “damage” done by central banks’ interest rate hikes and the risk of recession when evaluating stocks will be critical next year.

“Equity valuations don’t yet reflect the damage ahead, in our view,” they wrote. “We find that earnings expectations don’t yet price in even a mild recession.”

BlackRock doesn’t like developed-market stocks, at least in the near term, because Hildebrand and his team believe the Fed won’t save markets by slashing interest rates when a recession hits as they have in the past. It’s the end of the so-called Fed put.

“Central bankers won’t ride to the rescue when growth slows in this new regime, contrary to what investors have come to expect,” they argued. “That’s why the old playbook of simply ‘buying the dip’ doesn’t apply in this regime.”

Hildebrand and his team even went so far as to argue that central bankers are “deliberately causing recessions” by aggressively raising interest rates to fight inflation.

“The new playbook calls for a continuous reassessment of how much of the economic damage being generated by central banks is in the price,” they wrote. “That damage is building.”

Rethinking bonds
After years of underperformance versus equities, it may be time to look to the bond market for steady income as a recession looms.

“Fixed income finally offers ‘income’ after yields surged globally,” Hildebrand and his team wrote. “This has boosted the allure of bonds after investors were starved for yield for years.”

They recommended investors look to investment-grade credit and short-term government bonds, but warned to avoid long-term government bonds owing to rising debt levels and higher inflation.

“In the old playbook, long-term government bonds would be part of the package as they historically have shielded portfolios from recession. Not this time, we think,” they wrote.

Living with inflation
Year-over-year inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), likely peaked in June at 9.1%. And some CEOs and money managers argue that it’s set to come down fast.

But BlackRock has a different point of view.

“Even with a recession coming, we think we are going to be living with inflation,” Hildebrand and his team wrote. “We do see inflation cooling as spending patterns normalize and energy prices relent—but we see it persisting above policy targets in coming years.”

In this higher-inflation environment, they recommend inflation-protected bonds and avoiding stocks—at least in the near term.

“More volatile and persistent inflation is not yet priced in by markets, we think,” they warned.

Our new weekly Impact Report newsletter examines how ESG news and trends are shaping the roles and responsibilities of today’s executives. Subscribe here.
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Today

BlackRock — the world’s largest asset manager — says central banks are 'deliberately' causing recessions and warns of a downturn unlike any other. 3 shockproof assets for protection

Jing Pan
Wed, January 18, 2023 at 8:00 AM EST·4 min read

BlackRock — the world’s largest asset manager — says central banks are 'deliberately' causing recessions and warns of a downturn unlike any other. 3 shockproof assets for protection
Many experts have already sounded the alarm on the U.S. economy. But you still want to pay attention to what BlackRock — the world’s largest asset manager — has to say for a very simple reason: it’s predicting a recession unlike any other.

“Recession is foretold as central banks race to try to tame inflation,” BlackRock’s team of strategists write in their 2023 Global Outlook.

In fact, the strategists believe that central banks are “deliberately causing recessions by overtightening policy” in an effort to bring price levels under control.

In the past, when the economy entered a downturn, the Fed typically stepped in to help. But due to the cause of this projected recession, BlackRock says we can’t count on the central bank.

“Central bankers won’t ride to the rescue when growth slows in this new regime, contrary to what investors have come to expect.”

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And that does not bode well for stocks. The S&P 500 tumbled 19.4% in 2022, but BlackRock believes that equity valuations “don’t yet reflect the damage ahead.”

If this recession does turn out to be different from previous ones, maybe it’s time to look for unconventional ways to hedge against it. Here are three assets to consider.

Consumer staples
Higher interest rates can cool down the economy when it’s running too hot. But the economy is not running too hot, and BlackRock sees rate hikes pushing the economy into a recession.

That’s why investors may want to check out recession-proof sectors — like consumer staples.

Consumer staples are essential products such as food and drinks, household goods, and hygiene products.

We need these things regardless of how the economy is doing or what the federal funds rates are.

When inflation drives up input costs, consumer staples companies — particularly those with entrenched market positions — are able to pass those higher costs onto consumers.

Even if a recession hits the U.S. economy, we’ll probably still see Quaker Oats and Tropicana orange juice — made by PepsiCo (PEP) — on families’ breakfast tables. Meanwhile, Tide and Bounty — well-known brands from Procter & Gamble (PG) — will likely remain on shopping lists across the nation.

You can gain access to the group through ETFs like the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) and the Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC).

Wine
People have been consuming wine for thousands of years. While most collect wine for enjoyment rather than investment, bottles of fine wine become rarer and potentially more valuable as time goes by.

Since 2005, Sotheby’s Fine Wine Index has gone up 316%.

As a real asset, fine wine can also provide the diversification you need to protect your portfolio against the volatile effects of inflation and recession.

You can invest in wine by purchasing individual bottles — but you’ll need a place to store them properly. Residential wine cellars often cost tens of thousands of dollars. If not stored at the right temperature or humidity, the bottle could be compromised.

That’s one of the reasons why investing in fine wine used to be an option only for the ultra-rich. But with new investing platforms, you can invest in investment-grade wine too, just like Bill Koch and LeBron James.

Real estate
It may seem counterintuitive to have real estate on this list. When the Fed raises its benchmark interest rates, mortgage rates tend to go up as well, so shouldn’t that be bad for the real estate market?

While it’s true that mortgage payments have been on the rise, real estate has actually demonstrated its resilience in times of rising interest rates, according to investment management company Invesco.

“Between 1978 and 2021 there were 10 distinct years where the Federal Funds rate increased,” Invesco says. “Within these 10 identified years, US private real estate outperformed equities and bonds seven times and US public real estate outperformed six times.”

Commercial real estate is particularly stable. It has outperformed the S&P 500 over a 25-year period. And with the help of new platforms, these kinds of opportunities are now available to retail investors. Not just the ultra rich.

With a single investment, investors can own institutional-quality properties leased by brands like CVS, Kroger and Walmart — and collect stable grocery store-anchored income on a quarterly basis.

This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.

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GarlicFarts · Jan 18, 2023

So you're saying to invest in wine.

theesotericone · Jan 18, 2023

GarlicFarts said: ↑

So you're saying to invest in wine.
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At least start drinking a lot more of it. Helps numb the pain. lol

TreeFortRichard · Jan 18, 2023

GarlicFarts said: ↑

So you're saying to invest in wine.
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Yes and oddly enough there's a massive sell off in consumer goods/staples today..$CAG $CPB etc...
Hank Hill "Dammit bobby"

Consumer-Staple Stocks Lead Market Decline Wednesday

Consumer-Staple Stocks Lead Market Decline Wednesday
Hannah Miao
Wed, January 18, 2023 at 11:45 AM EST

In this article:
CPB
-3.59%

CAG
-4.27%

KHC
-5.78%

GIS
-4.29%

HRL
-3.74%

Shares of consumer-staples companies led stock-market declines on Wednesday. Consumer staples were the worst-performing sector of the S 500, down 1.7%. Among the biggest decliners within the sector: + **Kraft Heinz:** -5.1% + **General Mills:** -3% + **Conagra Brands:** -3% + **Hormel Foods:** -2.9% + **Campbell Soup:** -2.7% Last year, consumer staples were among the top performers as investors turned to defensive stocks to weather the market turmoil. The idea is that consumer staples' earnings

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TreeFortRichard · Jan 18, 2023

Get ahead of that curve

TreeFortRichard · Jan 18, 2023

So I thought the $SPY might rebound....like it has the last 8 times...

So I'm sitting here in the paint like Dennis Rodman. Calls in hand..hoping for a rebound...
but mostly looking like an idiot.

theesotericone · Jan 18, 2023

TreeFortRichard said: ↑

So I thought the $SPY might rebound....like it has the last 8 times...

So I'm sitting here in the paint like Dennis Rodman. Calls in hand..hoping for a rebound...
but mostly looking like an idiot.
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You should ask me how my BBBY puts are doing. On second thought. Don't ask. lol

TreeFortRichard · Jan 18, 2023

theesotericone said: ↑

You should ask me how my BBBY puts are doing. On second thought. Don't ask. lol
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Pretty sure put/calls are on either side of $4...and the least amount of damage happens at $3.99-$4.01

theesotericone · Jan 18, 2023

TreeFortRichard said: ↑

Pretty sure put/calls are on either side of $4...and the least amount of damage happens at $3.99-$4.01
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Max pain for Friday is $4.50. Which I should have checked before I anti-fomo'd. lol

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Still think TITNC3: Return of the Iceberg was peak

#80601
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98tacoma27 is going full "SANDWICH" Moderator

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98tacoma27 is going full "SANDWICH" Moderator

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Still think TITNC3: Return of the Iceberg was peak

#80601 chigolf Well-Known Member

#80602 98tacoma27 is going full "SANDWICH" Moderator

#80603 98tacoma27 is going full "SANDWICH" Moderator

#80604 chigolf Well-Known Member

#80605 TreeFortRichard Barcelona Red is the best red...

#80606 TreeFortRichard Barcelona Red is the best red...

#80607 BYJOSHCOOK Mr. Mojo Risin

#80608 98tacoma27 is going full "SANDWICH" Moderator

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Products Discussed in Entire Site Forum: Stocks & Investments Thread: Still think TITNC3: Return of the Iceberg was peak

#80601
chigolf Well-Known Member

#80602
98tacoma27 is going full "SANDWICH" Moderator

#80603
98tacoma27 is going full "SANDWICH" Moderator

#80604
chigolf Well-Known Member

#80605
TreeFortRichard Barcelona Red is the best red...

#80606
TreeFortRichard Barcelona Red is the best red...

#80607
BYJOSHCOOK Mr. Mojo Risin

#80608
98tacoma27 is going full "SANDWICH" Moderator

#80609
TreeFortRichard Barcelona Red is the best red...

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theesotericone Well-Known Member

#80611
TreeFortRichard Barcelona Red is the best red...

#80612
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#80613
GarlicFarts Bertolli Roberto

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theesotericone Well-Known Member

#80615
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#80616
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