Tacoma Vs. Rivian

Still curious, it seems you want an American company to fail. Is that the case?

 

I did not. I have more exciting things to do in life.

 

You don’t have to watch to read about the highlights. No new products were introduced and no exact delivery date set for CyberTruck.

 

Carnac the Magnificent cares for neither potentates nor politics.

 

The question isn't related to either. It's your personal thoughts on the success or failure of this American car company.

 

A. It's just a company, location has no bearing.
B. America is just a company too.

That answer your question?

 

It's just a company? So yes you want Rivian to fail or no you don't?

 

…

 

Rivian will be just fine. Amazon's van fleet alone should keep them afloat. I root for the success of both Tesla and Rivian as America-based tech companies with major manufacturing in the US and no, I'm not a Musk sycophant.

 

Elon needed to stick to rockets and cars. I'm not a fan of his. The cars are the catalyst to the EV boom that's for sure. I just like when new car companies are around and with competition comes lower prices in some cases. They all won't survive but I'd never hope for them to fail taking away Americans jobs.

 

Yes. This is the way, exactly what Tesla did.

Tesla was not profitable selling the $100k+ S and X models (which share a common platform with different bodies). However, with massive R&D and production expenses you need low volume high cost products to absorb the costs. Once you build an engineering and production foundation you can move toward scaling out to high production lower cost models.

Tesla introduced the 3 in 2017, but it took a few years for them to scale up. Then the Y in 2020 (again sharing the same platform between the Y and the 3). The Y was the 3rd best selling vehicle globally for 2022 IIRC. Tesla made it because they were able to scale what they learned on the S&X to the 3&Y which turned the company from being in the red to the black, and became extremely profitable. They would not be in the position they are today without those early expensive models.







Rivian is starting with the same type of ~$100k product on multiple platforms, the R1T and R1S, almost identical to Tesla. They also will likely not be profitable with a near $100k vehicle, but this isn’t typically the goal. You can’t start a car company relying on large scale, low cost manufacturing while doing R&D at the same time. Rivian is essentially at 2012ish in those Tesla charts above.

However, what is interesting is these EV companies trying to fund and finance a decades of losses to turn a profit with no profitable vehicles sales to support them, while profitable ICE vehicle brands have been largely caught flat footed despite having far greater resources, revenue/profits, manufacturing expertise and every advantage possible but are still largely behind.

 

I definitely think outside US sales helped Tesla a lot. I don't know if Rivian sells any outside the USA or not.

 

I wouldn't expect to see an Amazon Rivian 5 years after the last on rolls off the line. The avarage life cycle of a Amazon DSP delivery van is between 3-5 years. DSP rely on local automotive shops to service their vehicles.

Who is going to service these Rivian vans?


Rivian would lose tons of money trying to service Amazon vans.

 

To me it's the simple choice as to weather you want a good looking truck or an ugly truck.

 

The worst thing for an ICE vehicle in terms of wear is stop and go, and starting and stopping. Delivery vans that are constant stop/go drive 100ft and shut off again in urban environments and repeat non-stop thoughout their service life is the absolute worst case scenario for an ICE vehicle. None of this applies to an EV. It doesn’t get wear and tear from stop and go. It doesn’t get any wear from stopping and starting. A delivery van is the prime target for an EV where it’s advantages will be most leveraged.

 

He has NO clue the lifespan of the EV van or their serviceability infrastructure because they just came out.

 

Certainly valid.


Rivian only exports to Canada I believe and that just started late last year. With mid-large pickups and SUVs, North America is going to be the prime market. It really wouldn’t make financial sense to sell over seas at this point with those products. If they come out with a smaller truck and build an SUV version like they have done with the current models then a business case to do so may be more appealing. As much as it isn’t ideal in this community, a cross-over based model as their 2nd platform would do better globally. Of course global sales are not required to be successful domestically but it certainly helps.

 

Delivery vehicles get the living piss beat out of them on a daily basis.

Stop and go might not be an issue on an EV, but every thing else will be subject to the same abuse a part time Amazon contractor will throw at it every day.

It will be intresting to see how the vans fair with daily charging and being pushed to their maximum range every day, and dealing with the elements.

Like I said local shops service Amazon vehicles, some of these shops probably won't touch an EV. Some vans might go to the dealership for things that are still under warranty, no DSP is going to pay dealership rates to service their fleet. Rivian does not have dealerships, so that's not even a possible.

The Amazon deal could be what breaks the electric camel's back, as far as Rivian goes.

Rivian should be careful how they handle the maintenance side of their deal with Amazon, the less involved Rivian is with that, the better of they will be.

 

I used to be a quality control guy at an auto parts manufacturer and we made several interior parts for Rivian. All of them were inlay parts that got hand loaded into plastic injection molds and then shot. There were always 2 Rivian engineers on the floor at the press inspecting each part and the molding process. That much was impressive.

What was not impressive is not once in 2 1/2 years did I ever see a Rivian vehicle in the parking lot. And I made it a point to look every time the Rivian guys were there. They drove Nissan SUV's. Say what you want about GM, Toyota, Ford etc their staff would not be seen driving anything except the product of company they work for. No flippin' way would a GM/Ford engineer come driving up in a company Nissan!

My plant was is in Michigan, Rivian in Illinois. They couldn't drive one of their products one state away? They couldn't leave one plugged in somewhere close and pick it up on the way so they could be seen driving one of their own damn trucks to the factory?

The fact is they didn't care, and that tells me everything I need to know about Rivian as a company. Their own people know it's a fad, a joke and a money grab that isn't intended to last. And they don't even care who knows it!



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Their is no service infrastructure.

Look up used Sprinter and Transit vans, that will give you the turn over rate for new vehicles. You could probably look at conventional step vans also, but those are probably kept for a longer period of time as they are easier to rebuild and those bodies last longer than a regular van.