What’s the chance this rust fails my frame in 2 years?

The dealer will just look at it. They're not going to go poking around on your frame for you.

 

I agree....Your frame is on the way to becoming total toast !

 

Ah OK, basically where the two nestled layers meet up. Rust build up there is normal and won't deteriorate to a point of failure in 2 years. Check the bottom flange as it's thin in some areas and can trap water/dirt:



Don't go proactively looking for a frame replacement if you don't need it. Remember frame replacement is very invasive - basically Bob the mechanic disassembling your truck and putting it back together again. All it takes is one bent wiring connector pin out of the 200 that get unplugged for you to suffer electrical gremlins for the remainder of the truck's life. You may also end up with a $2000-3000 bill of "collateral damage" parts too rusted to survive removal, yet not covered by Toyota.

 

I will double check that spot. The spot in the picture and where the leaf springs attach at the far back of the truck (drivers side) are the worst spots that I can see, but after spending another hour under there banging around I was not able to find anything soft so I am hopeful I can remedy it. The only other thing I noticed, and maybe this is normal, but the boxed sections of the frame have a duller tone when I hit with hammer. I’m wondering if it’s because they are completely closed after the dealer put the plastic cap in there and filled it with goop. I was able to peer in there by moving the cap aside slightly and shining a flashlight in there. Could see the walls are completely white with their frosting, and I couldn’t see that any rust was forming in there but who knows.

 

Mine was done by the dealership's top tech who did a great job. OP, make sure to check up front on the inside where the AC drains. Taht's where a lot of the worst area is found.

 

Just checked. There’s a lot of dirt along that whole inner rail but it’s smooth metal underneath.

 

My AZ 14 taco has minor initial rust, Put two cans Of Aviation grade fluid film on it , looks brand new ))

 

I'm shocked. I live i the NE and have a good perspective on such things, though to be fair, that close made it harder to assess. Either way, you were lucky you survived the bad judgement. We've seen them fight it before when you make the holes yourself first.

 

My 2010 was nearly 7 years old when I purchased it and being in the rust belt I proactively sprayed the entire frame and underside with rust preventatives. My frame looks pretty darn good for its age. Anyone that lives in the rust belt or along a coast needs to be proactive as far as rust is concerned, rust doesn't sleep.
Recently my son had his '08 Subaru totaled and purchased a 2023, which he spent last Saturday spraying the entire underside with Blaster Surface Sheild and taking some plastic covers off to get at some unseen areas. This week he said he plans to go after the inner body cavities. He wasn't as proactive on his '08 and regretted it.

 

I was not aware that Toyota was still replacing frames? I thought that was over with?

The OPs frame, well, it is not ruined yet but well on the way. In two years, if nothing is done NOW, you will have an unsafe and rusted through frame with structural damage that cannot be repaired cost effectively.

 

This is my frame maintenance program the last 11 years of ownership in the rust belt. I would wait for warmer temps. hose down and degrease the frame. If you have a needle gun or wire wheel attachment too a drill start grinding that rust off. I would buy a hand wire brush for those hard to reach areas. I would then apply Ospho 608 rust neutralizer ( follow the safety precautions ) 2 coats, Eastwood black primer 2 coats, Eastwood black chassis paint 2 coats then I apply Amsoil heavy duty metal protector 2 coats. I also coat the power steering rack, transmission cooler lines .

Eastwood also makes an internal frame protector with a 360 degree wand good stuff though it sounds like your internal frame has been filled with Toyota's goop. I have build up a nice layer of protection so every summer I spend less time underneath the vehicle. I admit I'm OCD when comes to frame maintenance but preparation is the key have to remove the rust then the Ospho 608.Do not fluid film over the rust. I have tried fluid film found it washes away too easily. This is my frame maintenance program that has worked for me there are many other good products out there .

USN adage ( 7P ) Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance. GL

 

The Tacoma DLT (Dad's Last Truck) received its first frame treatment with NH oil Undercoating a year ago from my nearest dealer, and since then, I've learned that a mobile NHOU applicator is located an hour north. I had a great experience with the couple who have that NHOU treatment business, and I like western Montana and north Idaho, too. https://nhoilundercoating.com/
The Car Care Nut channel on YouTube puts great emphasis on undercoating rust-proofing treatments of Toyota's body on frame trucks, while Toyota's other vehicles (unibody construction) are pretty well sealed underneath. He (and his wife) recently opened their own shop, and he will continue to keep his certifications as a Toyota Master Technician, and the Toyota database subscriptions.
We used quite a bit of Ospho and Rustoleum along the Gulf of Alaska coast, and Dad used that combination on ranch equipment. All good suggestions in these forums (fora?).