EV's In Major Trouble

EVs have been around for well over a decade, rapidly gaining popularity and functionality every year since then, and you’re thinking that an event that just took place 8 months ago is controlling the narrative?

 

I'm not saying that, but those are the facts of the situation. Maybe Elon just loves Twitter that much.

 

I think there’s a gradient of opinions, hardly as black and white as you’re making it seem.

Right now in 2023 EVs are impressively practical as daily commuters and grocery getters, especially for those who own a SFH and have access to home charging. But still have real limits with no clear solutions, and most models come with a cost premium.

And development has slowed considerably. Range is still 250-300 best case, Tesla has obviously run into issues bringing the cyber truck to market.

Some new models are a complete disasters (Jeep 4xe and Ford Lightening for example). The abundance of minerals for batteries appears to be a scaling issue. Not to say the future isn’t bright but we’re definitely not on track for a completely electrified fleet in the US by 2035.

edit: reminds me of the certainty of self driving cars many had 7-8 years ago. Nothing has happened on that front. Very possible that same snail pace will be the case with EVs. Nothing is for sure.

 

Had to look it up, although I live in rural America so don’t see many EV adopters here. Pretty crazy how popular the Y is. Curious to see what will happen next year when the federal incentive comes off the hood (dealer and manufacturer dependent).

 

If you are meaning where they get the direct tax credit at time of purchase you are going to have a lot of pissed off people come tax time who find out they did not qualify for it. I for one would welcome a price war on EVs though and I think we are starting to see if with Ford lowering prices to match Tesla. If Tesla can deliver their cyber truck for less than the Lightning....and I mean like $10k to 20k less then game on in EV land. Rivian will all but pack it up since I doubt they can lower their prices to compete let alone stay relevant. And until battery tech gets their rural America just will no adopt.

 

Didn't we see this argument when the hybrid cars came out? 5 years in, people were harping that the batteries would fail and cost a fortune. I get there are odd issues here and there, but hybrids have been great for the most part.

10 years in the EV era, and we haven't seen any spontaneously combust, and batteries have only gotten better and better. I don't see EVs being an issue going forward. I see this fear mongering and antagonistic thinking holding people back from innovation and adoption in the space.

 

Run for the Hills!!!

This new fangled electicity is fake news! - There is no proof!
I have not seen any electricity ever!

 

It’s just fear of change

 

I don't know where the information can be found. If you looked into fleet hybrids you would probably find that the majority of those vehicles have batteries that no longer function after so many years. Those vehicles probably made it through the first owners life cycle and would be replaced any how. Had they been ICE vehicles they would still be on the road and driven by the second owner. Many fleet vehicles are well maintained and not driven hard, and have plenty of life left in them. Until the batteries no longer function.

 

All good solid points. But keep in mind that whenever we make the very last IC engine in a new car we still have 20 years or so of ICE cars still driving around in large numbers. I own 2 vehicles, 24 and 18 years old respectively. I might be an outlier but even the average American keeps their car 7 or 8 years (I pulled that number out of my ass). That gets us until 2043 before the majority of vehicles are EVs and 2053ish until ICE vehicles become very rare. In the tech world that is a long long time and a lot of innovation.

 

Agree with 7-8 years, at least in CA. About 14M cars in the state, about 1.9M sold every year. 7-8 years to cycle. Granted many will keep their gas cars indefinitely, and some will buy gassers out of state.

That’s the most aggressive timeline though. I’d put my money on that 2035 timeline getting delayed. Newsom will be long gone and whoever’s governor isn’t going to stamp their name on a EV mandate if the charging infrastructure isn’t there. Especially once it becomes a socioeconomic issue for people who live in apartments or limited to street parking.

 

the average age of cars on teh road keep going up. rich people buy new, and slowly the vehicles work their way down to the poor. or get wrecked.

 

The legacy companies cannot even remotely compete with Tesla right now. I predict the legacy OEM's will soon petition the government around the world to relax EV switchover mandates/deadlines to buy more and more time.

The Ford Lightning is now being discounted because of lack of demand and its price is subsidized by expensive ICE F-series trucks). The Japanese government is having emergency meetings with their own automakers because Chinese-made EVs are set to takeover the Japanese market.

I live in Wyoming and if I had to get an EV it would HAVE to be a Tesla because there are hardly any other chargers throughout the state but quite a few Tesla Superchargers (The supercharger network is not fully open to other OEMs yet). As much as I love Toyota, they are too busy crying to governments about EV rules rather than making compelling EVs.

 

The war will not be won by selling EV.

 

Boomer alert.

 

The good news is you probably won’t have to worry about that in probably 15-20 years. Most people won’t be able to afford vehicles. There will be mass public transit and ride sharing services that control most of the market.

 

All electricity is made from smoke . Fact when smoke gets out of an electrical motor it will not work again . You cannot reinstall smoke must replace motor . You have never seen electricity but you have seen smoke I am sure

 

Thank your state bro… they are always pushing the manufactures with requirements, laws, and such that increase the prices passed on to consumers.

 

cars are safer than ever and the air across the country is cleaner for it. You’re welcome


and you’ll still be able to drive your own car next decade, too.