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Trade in values tanked

Discussion in '3rd Gen. Tacomas (2016-2023)' started by TheDudeinPhx, Jul 30, 2023.

  1. Jul 30, 2023 at 4:20 PM
    #21
    oconnor

    oconnor Where am I?

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    There are a lot of petty people out there. T4R owners definitely have their share, they usually shitpost here.
     
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  2. Jul 30, 2023 at 5:53 PM
    #22
    Taco_mike73

    Taco_mike73 Well-Known Member

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    Maybe it is. I really don't think it matters since I have no plans sell or trade. I also only have 26,000 miles and it's well maintained too.
     
  3. Jul 31, 2023 at 4:51 AM
    #23
    fourfourone

    fourfourone Well-Known Member

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    Stop using Carvana as your used car value source. They base trade in values on their level of inventory on that model. If they have a ton of tacomas in stock they will offer lower trade in values.
     
  4. Jul 31, 2023 at 5:44 AM
    #24
    Rock Lobster

    Rock Lobster Thread Derailer

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    A lot of industries, cars included, have been trying to surf the wave of "low volume, high profit" for three years now. You see it in consumer goods (Buy the new $75k super dooper luxury off-road Tundra!!!!), you see it in raw commodities that went into the manufacture of your consumer goods (its good to be a steel and concrete baron, yo) , and you see it in hospitality/entertainment (Be sure to upgrade for 8 dollars more for that ultra premium movie seat!).

    Here's the thing. That model is not sustainable for very long. It never has been. Its an economic arms race where people ride the easy profit for as long as they can until someone finally eats their lunch with a high volume/low margin model.

    Then the bubble pops and it all begins anew.

    Everyone is saying the same thing right now. Ski slope attendance is at an all time low, but profits are at an all time high (some lift tickets are selling for over $250/day). Same with restaurants, same with car and luxury sales. That's the end-game spiral, where prices continue to climb as number of purchases continue to wane. It will be corrected in one of two ways. Either it implodes and causes a recession, or new competition jumps in to fill the vacuum and starts the supply/demand pendulum swinging the other way.


    Nothing lasts forever. There is no new normal if there's no such thing as normal.
     
  5. Jul 31, 2023 at 5:47 AM
    #25
    TifosiTuning

    TifosiTuning KDMax Authorized Pro Tuner

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    This^^^
     
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  6. Jul 31, 2023 at 5:51 AM
    #26
    BillyE

    BillyE Well-Known Member

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    "Sold" it back to the dealer means you traded it? You can't compare trade-in values and Carvana internet offer. But sure, used car prices are coming down a bit because inventories are higher.
     
  7. Jul 31, 2023 at 5:57 AM
    #27
    deaps

    deaps Well-Known Member

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    I don't think they so much *tanked* as they were just *artificially inflated* for way too long.

    The car market (both new and used over the last 2-3 years) being so *volatile* is why I'll never spend above (or even at) MSRP for a new vehicle, ever.

    Also, I'll point out - that checking vehicles worth randomly - doesn't always give an accurate picture.

    That's to say that depreciation could be linear when plotted over a period of time that includes many points of data.
    But checking it once, then checking it in 10 months can yield some wildly confusing results. This is due to things like loan rates changing, new model year being announced, showing up on lots, a decline (or a surplus) in the available used market, a decline (or a surplus) in the available new market, and so on.
     
  8. Jul 31, 2023 at 6:00 AM
    #28
    TheDudeinPhx

    TheDudeinPhx [OP] Well-Known Member

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    No I sold it. I no longer needed it and left the state. The price I sold it to them for was the price Carvana offered me at the time 4/21. It was 2k less than I paid when I bought it new a year earlier. Just found it interesting that there’s a 15 percent difference in 3 months.
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2023
  9. Jul 31, 2023 at 6:05 AM
    #29
    BillyE

    BillyE Well-Known Member

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    Sounds like you got an amazing deal in April.
     
  10. Jul 31, 2023 at 6:18 AM
    #30
    TenBeers

    TenBeers Well-Known Member

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    Yeah.
    According to a Google search:

    "The dollar had an average inflation rate of 5.64% per year between 2020 and today, producing a cumulative price increase of 17.89%."

    Your $33,950 would be $40,023 today. So, that is actually a ~12% decrease in value. Still not bad, though. It's tough to do raw dollars these days.
     
  11. Jul 31, 2023 at 7:29 AM
    #31
    TheDudeinPhx

    TheDudeinPhx [OP] Well-Known Member

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    Just wondering if the announcement of the 2024 has anything to do with the price drop. As I mentioned I put 5k miles on my 4Runner pro since 4/21 and price has dropped just 2k from 54 to 52.
     
  12. Jul 31, 2023 at 7:46 AM
    #32
    BillyE

    BillyE Well-Known Member

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    Maybe if it slowed sales of 23s and inventory increased. It remains to be seen what prices look like for the Gen4s. I have to believe they will cost much more than I’d ever pay for a Tacoma. Of course I paid $45k for mine and I’m a little ashamed of that.
     
  13. Jul 31, 2023 at 7:49 AM
    #33
    TenBeers

    TenBeers Well-Known Member

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    Yeah.
    Probably lots of factors, and that might be one of them. Supply and demand, higher interest rates, etc. Adjusted for inflation, that $52k is more like $46.4k. To me, it seems like things are getting back to almost normal.
     
  14. Jul 31, 2023 at 8:19 AM
    #34
    Lunar Squirrel

    Lunar Squirrel Well-Known Member

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    Asking Carvana to value my vehicle would be mistake number one. They’re struggling just to keep the lights on in those ridiculous automotive gum-ball machines. Not the recipe for a fair offer on any trade.

    Besides, it’s every dealer’s sworn duty to low ball your trade, so good luck to someone who chooses to accept a bad offer & give away their Taco. Just don’t blame it on the truck, or complain to the rest of us here…

    As overall used market values inevitably decline, the Tacoma will still remain #1 or #2 in resale, relative to all other vehicles, regardless. JD Power just placed the ‘22 Tacoma #2 in 5yr residual (Tundra #1). KBB, same story, every single year.

    So what’s the lesson here?
    If, a.)you need a new truck right now, and, b.) you are concerned about residual values, then there is virtually no smarter choice than a Gen3 Toyota Tacoma. Also might get a discount and a V6.

    No matter how good (fingers still crossed) Gen4 is, it’s unlikely to change Gen3’s resale dynamic long term. Others have already had that same debate every prior redesign, so nothing to see here, move along…
     
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  15. Jul 31, 2023 at 9:17 AM
    #35
    deaps

    deaps Well-Known Member

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    I used to work at an auto dealer - and they all go off of the prices in an auction database.

    The databases are linked and searchable geographically to the area the dealer is in.

    They look up data for a (for example) 2021 Tacoma Sport [with these options].
    Since they are all linked, they see that 5 of them sold in the last month for an average of $33,291 *with relatively the same mileage
    They're not going to pay more than (well, not much more than) $33,291. It wouldn't make sense.

    If the manager knows they have 2 customers on some waiting list for a 2021 Tacoma Sport - maybe you get offered $34k.
    If the last time they had that same vehicle (and color combo - this can matter a lot) it sat for 4 months before they finally took it to the auction, you're not even getting $33,291.
     
  16. Jul 31, 2023 at 9:39 AM
    #36
    OZ TRD

    OZ TRD Well-Known Member

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    You may have gotten more for the PRO selling direct...

    In the end there are many variables...

    The particular attributes of a vehicle have more value to individual buyers rather that a dealer valuing via a database. Always. For Dealers, it is a transaction, for individuals, it is something more. Especially if there is something special about the vehicle; a manual transmission, a certain color, a rate trim, etc.

    I recently sold a series 100 LC. Valuations typically were in the $7,500 to $9k.

    Of course everyone wanted it... Few were willing to pay. 'Generous' offers were common in the $15-18k range.

    I would not sell for less than $20k. I'd rather keep it if it did not sell for my price.
    - Many whined, Some got close...

    I sold it directly for more than $20k (and more than I paid for it close to 20 years ago.) - not accounting for inflation, of course.

    The buyer did not flinch and is happy as a clam!
     
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  17. Jul 31, 2023 at 9:45 AM
    #37
    Seabass

    Seabass Give it to me. I'll break it for you

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    Just a bunch of old crap
    Almost at 300k miles. Can't wait to trade it for $1400 and show them who's boss
     
  18. Jul 31, 2023 at 10:58 AM
    #38
    Cojaro

    Cojaro Member

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    I admittedly overpaid for my (used with only 2,200 miles) Tacoma last year, but at the same time, the non-Toyota dealer gave me $300 more for my trade-in than what I paid for it new, 2 years and 20k miles prior.
    My Tacoma still has enough residual value that I could probably get a 2024 SR5 with some factory options/packages and still walk away with change in my pocket.
     
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  19. Jul 31, 2023 at 11:49 AM
    #39
    MK212MX

    MK212MX Well-Known Member

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    True, but it is based on nationwide inventory which is also their audience. Rather than a local dealer or KBB in your specific zip code.
     
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  20. Jul 31, 2023 at 12:11 PM
    #40
    Firn

    Firn Well-Known Member

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    I generally agree that values had dropped significantly. 5 months ago I was getting offers from $33-$39k, now those offers are from $29-$34k.

    Used asking price seems to have dropped a little as well, although not that much.
     

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