Space and Science BS Thread

They have blown my mind in every replay I've seen. Particularly in the steam vs. dust

 

There’s definitely a two-tone quality at lift off. First clean steam then tan smoke. At least not the pink of refractory cement.

 

I think I might infer a pause in Starship testing(longer than just for pad/tower inspection and nominal repairs) as an indication they might need some deeper changes and use the time to initiate(not necessarily complete) a second tower at BC and KSC while a transition back to testing after launch site checks could indicate they feel the issues can be fixed to an extent to earn another launch license. The Starship rud might be an easier, less intrusive fix than the booster so I’m thinking it’s booster modifications that might hold up OFT-3 the longest. Pure speculation I freely admit. If the modifications are minimal do you think the next launch could happen by Valentines Day? It will be interesting to see what the turn around time on this mishap report will be since Spacex is largely responsible for that timeline regardless of whatever Elon tweets. I expect it will take a bit longer even with minimal changes, maybe Easter. Spacex took 4 months to produce the last report and the FAA only needed 1 more to approve it so they’d need to have it done by mid January for a Valentines launch.

 

They claim to be working towards another launch before Christmas. I'm sure there's going to be a lot of post launch pad and surrounding wilderness examination by the bureaucracies, but all in all it looks like they have the pad relatively controlled now so I don't think that's going to be a major delay. The rest depends how much they can fix with software vs hardware changes/upgrades. Seems like optimistic Elon time, but I didn't expect it to launch when it did. Just so used to space industry delays.

those poor birds, is what I'd say if birds were real.

 

Yeah, more Elon time. If they handed over a report complete with solutions by this Wednesday they might get a launch license by Christmas but I doubt they could have B10 ready by then even with no changes.

 

Huh…..

What about all them tiles popping off?

Edit to add: Anyone else see how quickly Starship was burning through lox and methane, just to get to orbit, and wonder if there’d be enough for a landing. (Regardless of Scott Manley’s observation the lox use accelerated near the end.)

 

Boca Chica lessons will be applied but will be interesting to see differences in how & where the support facilities are built at the Cape.

 

I think it was Dreamchaser, but I remember one of the space planes in development ended up deciding that they were only going to do a cargo variant until they had enough successful missions and funding to human rate it.

The header tanks in the nose are for landing. The body tanks are for getting to orbit.

 

Tiles are external but the changes I postulated to the booster are internal and might not go into effect until the rings affected can be modified. It’s why I hope a slight change in the timing of relighting more engines could solve the issue for now. There was plenty of fuel for 3 but maybe not for all of the inner 13(that’s if it’s fuel slosh and not something else entirely). I agree fixing the tiles is an issue but it won’t be a critical path one until they’re ready to attempt a controlled reentry. So at least one or two more launches will be simply ballistic after seco. Mostly “ifs” right now but how they proceed in the next few weeks could tell us a lot about whether Spacex thinks they can get another license with the current booster prototypes. As far as the ships are concerned and that rud there’s too little info to speculate the root cause of the plumes, only that lox consumption increased near the end, not where it and from or why. Knowing both ship and booster are destined for a dunking anyway I don’t pretend to know how much the FAA will require to be addressed to have a decreased likelihood of requiring the FTS’s to be triggered. It’s one thing to launch assuming failure but not exactly why and another to know why and launch anyway without making the necessary modifications.

 

Another after action report, this time from WAI.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=56r_twDliOc

 

WAI is a hack and uses video and pictures without permission.

 

https://youtu.be/wly-YFGZbvA?si=SShfWaeX0BPBL6TH

 

No argument. I’m not here to debate the hash social media has made of the public domain or turn it into a popularity contest. I watch most of these videos in spite of the host not because of them.

 

Yeah, some of the closeups of Starship’s last moments show a ship out of control, it wouldn’t surprise me if it comes out the FTS was automatically triggered..

 

Preliminary report from SpaceX:
https://x.com/djsnm/status/1727095340434878754?s=46

 

Our tax $$ at work! And we can watch
https://x.com/nasasolarsystem/status/1727101421596835992?s=46

 

I like this guy(certainly this episode) because he agrees with me. Mentioning:
Tank baffles
Starship center engine hot staging
Delay on startup of 10-Ring engines
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0ePsuru7BKc

 

Would be awesome to gain insight on the Great Red Spot and how it’s driven along with more data on the extreme magnetic and gravitational fields surrounding our wannabe second star. Until we master those it’s a no fly zone for manned missions. We’d be better off aiming for Ceres than any of the Jovian moons. There we could draw on lunar habitation requirements and merely standard radiation exposures.

 

Spacex's internal goals as of a month ago are, another launch attempt before Christmas. First payload deliver Q1 2024, First recovery attempt Q3 2024, on orbit fuel storage 2025, 2026 in orbit satellite repair/upgrade/retrieval, 2027 crewed missions, 2028 Starship station designing begins. This is what they said at the CCSC-2 anyways. Not an impossible timeline, it wouldn't surprise me to see a launch a month starting Q2. Going to be an exciting couple of years.

 

It’s the radiation that’ll be a bitch to resolve at Jupiter.