Still think TITNC3: Return of the Iceberg was peak

amc lol

 

One thing I miss about the Fortune 10 company life, was we got half days before all the weird holidays nobody cares about, and we got the following day off. So tomorrow, the white collar corporate world of my former peers will have been already drunk by noon while I'm busying visiting customers and selling things like a schlub.

What makes me incredibly happier, is this is now month 7 that I haven't been on an airplane or eaten at a Hilton Garden Inn bar for dinner.

Relevant anecdote:
Today, one of our vendors took me and a couple other dudes from the office out to lunch. He pulls out his card to pay, and I saw just the very back top corner of it. I say, "That's the Hilton Honors AMEX, isn't it?"

"How the fuck could you possibly know that?"

*opens wallet* "Sigh, I have one too"

 

https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-february-2024

Headline PCE 0.3 MoM, down from 0.4 in January.
Core PCE 0.3 MoM, down from 0.5 in January.

Headline 2.5 YoY, up from 2.4 in Jan.
Core 2.8 YoY, down from 2.9 in Jan.

Long term trend reflects continued cooling, short term trend reflects cooling from the Dec/Jan holiday season, as expected. Digging into the tables, goods are essentially flat - it is almost all services, lead by air travel and financing, that underpin the MoM increases.

Nothingburger. Now back to your regularly scheduled unstoppable US Economy.

 

January was revised up giving February the appearance of easing. The record $1.1 trillion of credit card debt would say otherwise about the economy being “good”

 

Good point. Credit card companies are more than happy to take your business right now. And everyone selling stuff has a "buy now pay later" option. I keep getting offers to raise my credit limits. No, but thanks.

 

Regarding PCE, revisions don't give "appearances". They correct data. January was revised up, meaning Feburary *did* decline.

Regarding credit card debt, that's another nothingburger. For one, using gross dollars is silly because inflation will ensure that typical levels of credit card debt in dollars will continue to rise as the currency devalues.

For two, credit card debt now is a smaller percentage of personal income than it was during the pre-pandemic period because personal incomes have *also* increased in gross dollars for the same reason CC debt has, and at a faster pace than people have accrued new debt. See here:

https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2023/12/three-measures-of-us-credit-card-debt/

This suggests people are rationally and intentionally increasing their debt loads more slowly than their income increases.

For three, credit utilization ratios are down from the pre-pandemic era. See here:

https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2022/12/credit-card-balances-utilization-rates/

and here:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1jelz

People are using less of the credit they have available on credit card accounts, meaning they are less leveraged overall.


If I may make a suggestion: Never, *ever* do economic analysis using only currency based figures.

You should take those increases to your credit limits, because it decreases your utilization ratio and improves your credit score. There is literally no downside.

 

The number of "Do you need more credit? We'll raise your limit just ask.." I get for my cards is amusing...
I sometimes run it high, but only like 20-25% of the limit and I pay it off every month...But ooooh do they want to give me opportunity

 

Wow...
The $$$$

 

Ha...I just realized because I always see " kairo[OP] like" on this thread...My brain assumes the OP in every other thread is him...

 

Annnnnd....Sunday night futures green as fuuuuuck.

 

My Dogecoin has been ripping haha.

My amc and gme, not so much.

 

I had one slip of the finger the other night and sold all my doge holdings. RIP. Cost basis .06-.07, it was only 550+ doge but it was nice seeing big percentages

 

Up 140% in the last 3 months is nice.

 

Didn't fool me...
Day low was $1.44...I filled at $1.45
I was pissed because I thought it didn't fill...BUT it did



$15 trailing stop set

 

Well shit, that fell so fast I reset the trailer to 2 contracts...and I widened it to $25 for the 3rd...

So now it's out at $251 each for the $145 and then $234 for the 3rd in case we get a retest and drop...

 

Meh...I don't do anything on timelines shorter than 5 years other than watch anyway.

 

Just gotta make $100 a day

 

All stopped out of those Puts..
Flipping the gains into ONE $AMD 6.21.2024 $200 call @$11.33
I wanted one at the open today but missed the pop...so I said "Well, I'm not chasing...maybe I can play the $SPY right and get one for free....Or lose $1K"