Alabama thread!

Morning peeps, thunder and lightning popping around me woke me up .


Been raining pretty hard for about 30 minutes, but it’s been so dry can’t really tell it’s rained.

 

Good morning Stevie.

 

Evening Barrie , how are you doing today?

 

Doing good, I have PT this afternoon, always a good time. LOL.

How are you doing today?

 

Here at werkie trying to make it through my shift .

 

From AlabamaWX

RADAR CHECK: Rain and storms are most active across East and Southeast Alabama this afternoon. The rain is heavy in spots; a flash flood warning has been issued for parts of Chambers, Lee and Dale counties. In addition to heavy rain, stronger storms across East and Southeast Alabama are capable of producing strong gusty winds and small hail through the evening hours.



The chance of rain will continue through tomorrow statewide. The rain becomes heavy tomorrow night over the eastern third of the state as Helene moves inland; a flash flood watch is in effect from Scottsboro down to Anniston, Opelika, Montgomery, Troy, and Dothan. Rain amounts will be much lighter over the western counties.

Winds increase tomorrow night over East Alabama… gusts to 30/35 mph are possible, with gusts to 40/45 mph possible from Eufaula down to Dothan.

The big rain mass will move out early in the day Friday, and we expect only a few isolated showers Friday afternoon/Friday night mainly over the Tennessee Valley.

The weekend will be mostly dry, with only a small risk of a shower both days over the northern half of the state. Highs will be in the 77-82 degree range. Much of next week looks dry as well.

HELENE: Helene is now a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph… The center is about 110 miles north/northeast of Cozumel.

The hurricane is moving to the north/northwest at 10 mph. ?

From NHC: Helene is expected to move through/over an environment of relatively low shear, strong upper-level divergence, and sea surface temperatures of 29-31 degrees Celsius, all of which should foster additional strengthening.

Rapid Intensification (RI) indices indicate a high chance of RI during the next 24 hours, and as a result the NHC intensity forecast shows Helene becoming a major hurricane by tomorrow morning. There is still some uncertainty on exactly how strong Helene will get, and upward adjustments to the forecast intensity could be required in subsequent advisories if Helene rapidly intensifies more than forecast.

Regardless, Helene is forecast to be a large major hurricane when it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. As a result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed while Helene crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.

Landfall will likely make landfall tomorrow evening on the Florida coast south of Tallahassee, and east of Apalachicola; Helene is expected to be a major hurricane (category three) with winds of 125 mph at that time. There has been very little change in the track forecast over the past 48 hours. Also, there has been very little change in the expected impact for inland areas. ?



Key messages…

*A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Anclote River to Mexico Beach.

*A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

*The Central Gulf Coast (Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach) is expected to be on the good, west side of the circulation with an offshore flow. The hurricane warning includes Mexico Beach, Port St. Joe, Cape San Blas, and points east. The main impact in terms of wind, storm surge, flooding, and isolated tornadoes will be from east of Indian Pass to Cedar Key and down to Tampa Bay (the east side of the circulation).

*A 12-18 foot storm surge is forecast from the Ochlockonee River down to Chassahowitzka on the Florida Coast. The storm surge around Tampa Bay is forecast to be 5-8′



*The southeast corner of Alabama (around Dothan) could see wind gusts to 40/45 mph tomorrow night; a tropical storm warning has been issued for parts of East and Southeast Alabama, including places like Lafayette, Opelika, Eufaula, Troy, Ozark, and Dothan. Tropical storm force winds begin at 39 mph.

The rest of East Alabama will see gusts to 35 mph; gusts over the western half of the state will be in the 20-25 mph range. Highest wind velocities will be east of Alabama over North Florida and Georgia, where numerous power outages are likely.



*The eastern half of Alabama has potential for 3-5 inches of rain through Friday morning; rain potential for the western counties is 1-2 inches. Areas in West and Southwest Alabama from Tuscaloosa to Mobile are expected now to receive under one inch. A flash flood watch is in effect for the eastern third of Alabama… in the area from Scottsboro down to Anniston, Opelika, Montgomery, Troy, and Dothan.

*Tornadoes are not expected in Alabama. Any isolated tornadoes will be along the east of the center of circulation as Helene moves northward (east of Alabama).

*The weather will improve across Alabama by mid-morning Friday; we expect just a few isolated, light showers Friday night and Saturday over the northern third of the state. Bottom line is that the weather won’t be bad at all for high school and college games in the state; just a small risk of a shower for any one given stadium. Wind will be under 10 mph.

Remember, any tropical forecast can change. Watch for updates!

ON THIS DATE IN 1998: Four hurricanes were spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic basin: Georges, Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl. That was the first time this had happened since 1893.

 

Well, the 4PM NHC update is here and it brings some concerning news. The most notable: storm surge levels in some areas in the Big Bend region are forecasted to be 15-20 ft.



Here are the updated stats from the 4PM CDT Advisory:

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.5N 86.6W
ABOUT 460 MI…735 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 505 MI…815 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…978 MB…28.88 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch east of Mexico Beach to Indian Pass has been
upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning.

The Tropical Storm Watch north of South Santee River to Little
River Inlet has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth



Strength:
The NHC is now suggesting that Helene may intensify to a low-end category 4 hurricane (estimated 132 mph winds) by tomorrow afternoon. Model data also supports this claim. Regardless, the storm is set to make landfall as a major hurricane. Whether it is a category 3 or category 4 hurricane, this storm will cause damage to the Florida Coastline.

Track/Landfall:
The track and the timing of the storm has not changed much. It is still expected to make landfall tomorrow evening (Thursday) in the Big Bend region of Florida. Tropical storm force winds will likely be felt starting tomorrow afternoon, a few hours before landfall occurs. The storm will impact regions far outside of the area of landfall. Much of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Alabama will feel the effects of Helene. Wind and flooding are the main concerns, especially in the areas to the east of the low pressure center.





Storm Surge:
15-20 ft storm surge is now expected in the areas between (and including) Apalachicola, FL and Chassahowitzka, FL. This is an extremely high level of surge, and will have huge impacts on the Florida Coast if it occurs. The rest of the Florida Gulf Coast could see anywhere from 1-15 ft of surge, depending on proximity to the area of landfall.



Flash Flooding:
There is a large risk of flash flooding all across the Southeastern United States over the next few days. Helene will bring lots of rainfall, especially to areas that have been especially dry. While rainfall can help alleviate dry conditions, too much at once can be dangerous. Keep an eye out for flash flood warnings as they pop up over the upcoming days.



Tornado Threat:
There is a tornado threat, mostly inland, associated with this system. The SPC has highlighted an area of enhanced risk near the Georgia and South Carolina Coasts, but the lower risk areas extend into all of Southern Florida and much of Georgia/South Carolina. Most of the tornado threat will exist tomorrow night after Helene has made landfall.



We are continually monitoring this storm, and will continue to keep you updated.

 

Hopefully that thing will die down if it makes up this far and maybe the mountains around here will slow it down.

 

It's wild. North Ga under a tropical storm warning is concerning. There will for sure be a lot of trees down and roads washed out in the Blue Ridge mountains if the rains come down like they have forecast.

 

That’s not good cause if the wind blows wrong here almost guaranteed power outages.

 

Same here brother!

 

Good morning everyone, have a great and blessed Thursday.

 

Good morning Bama stay safe today.

Good morning Jeff, 2.80+" since yesterday roads closing left and right garage door spring broken yesterday need new top panel . Stay safe today.

 

Sorry could not like this. Too much headache. Thank God for the new job, even though you probably had something else to use you paycheck on.

Be safe and careful today.

 

Good morning Jeff.

Good morning David.

 

Morning fellas

 

From AlabamaWX

Most of the impact from Hurricane Helene will come over the eastern side of Alabama over the next 24 hours. Rain will increase over East Alabama this afternoon and tonight, becoming heavy at times. The western half of the state will be mostly dry with just a few spotty showers. Winds will increase across East Alabama tonight, gusts to 40/45 mph are possible. The higher wind velocities will be to the east over Georgia.

Rain will end very early tomorrow morning over East Alabama, and most of Alabama will be dry tomorrow. The exception is the Tennessee Valley, where rain is possible through tomorrow night thanks to the remnant circulation of Helene as it is absorbed by an upper low.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The weather looks generally dry over the weekend with highs in the 77-81 degree range for most communities. Any showers will be isolated, and near the Tennessee border.

And, next week looks dry with highs in the low 80s on most days.

HELENE: This morning Hurricane Helene, with winds of 90 mph, is about 350 miles southwest of Tampa. It is moving to the north/northeast at 9 mph.

Helene remains in an atmospheric and oceanic environment over the eastern Gulf of Mexico that is very conducive for strengthening, with the system forecast to traverse the Loop Current while it remains in a moist and low-shear environment. The main restraining factor on intensification is the current concentric eyewall status. All of the intensity guidance continues to forecast strengthening until landfall. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Helen to become a major hurricane in about 12 hours, and additional intensification is expected in the ensuing 6 hour period or so before landfall.

Helene is forecast to be a large major hurricane when it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. As a result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. Indeed, the GFS and ECMWF models suggest the possibility that the inner wind core may persist until the center reaches northern Georgia. A higher-than-normal gust factor is indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland.

Key messages…

*Landfall is forecast this evening east of Apalachicola; Helene will be a major hurricane with winds of 115-130 mph (category three or four). The forecast track was nudged eastward on the latest update from NHC.



*A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Anclote River to Mexico Beach.

*The main impact in terms of wind, storm surge, and flooding along the Florida Coast will be from Mexico Beach all the way down to Cedar Key and Tampa Bay (the Florida “Big Bend”). The Central Gulf Coast (Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach) remains on the favorable, west side of the circulation with an offshore flow. It will be windy and wet in Panama City Beach today and tonight, but no storm surge issues there as the center comes in well to the east. There will be little to no rain along the Alabama Gulf Coast.

*The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL…15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL…10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL…10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL…8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL…6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL…5-8 ft
Tampa Bay…5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL…4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL…3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL…3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor…3-5 ft



*While the highest winds associated with Helene will be east of Alabama across Georgia (where widespread power outages are likely), there is a tropical storm warning in effect for extreme East and Southeast Alabama, where winds could gust to 40/45 mph tonight. A hurricane warning is in effect for Houston and Henry counties in Southeast Alabama; winds there could gust to 70/75 mph briefly in a few spots.

We should note it will be windy over the northern half of the state tomorrow (although the day will be mostly dry) with gusts to 30/35 mph possible during the day.



*Most of the rain in association with Helene will fall over East Alabama today and tonight; a flash flood watch is in effect for roughly the eastern half of the state through early tomorrow morning. Rain amounts of 2-3 inches are possible there. The western side of the state will see only a few spotty showers.



*There is no tornado risk for Alabama. The threat of tornadoes will be well to the east across parts of northern Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games across Alabama tomorrow night… most stadiums will be dry, but the exception is over the Tennessee Valley of North Alabama where rain is possible. Temperatures will be in the 70s.

Saturday UAB hosts Navy (11a CT kickoff at Protective Stadium)… the sky will be partly sunny; temperatures will rise from near 75 at kickoff to 79 by the final whistle.

Auburn hosts Oklahoma Saturday afternoon at Jordan-Hare Stadium (2:30p CT kickoff)… expect a partly sunny sky with temperatures in the 77-81 degree range.

Alabama will host Georgia at Bryant-Denny Stadium Saturday evening (6:30p CT kickoff)…the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling through the 70s.

ON THIS DATE IN 1955: On this date, the Atlantic reconnaissance aircraft, ”Snowcloud Five” went down while investigating Hurricane Janet and was never heard from again. Lt. Comdr. Windham with a crew of 8 and two newspapermen reported that they were about to begin penetrating the central core of the hurricane. Hurricane Janet made landfall at peak intensity near Chetumal, Mexico on September 29th. Janet’s landfall as a Category 5 hurricane on the Yucatán Peninsula was the first recorded instance that a storm of such intensity in the Atlantic made landfall on a continental mainland; prior to Janet, landfalls of Category 5 intensity were only known to have taken place on islands.

 

Good morning Barrie.

Good morning Brian.

 

Morning erbody, this must be the calm before the storm. Sunny up here and kinda cloudy skies but not bad .

 

not going to be quite as bad where we are