used car market predictions 2025

A few weeks ago someone said "we're close to the floor" on 3rd gen tacoma pricing. I passed on a good deal on a 3rd gen and now I'm seeing 3 weeks later that not as sweet a deal is available, but I know trucks come and go, and situations of sellers vary quite a bit.

I have a good 2nd gen, but just got an offer on it (close to what i paid three years ago), and it needs prob $2000 of tires+suspension to reset it's clock for some more good years.

In 2022 I could NOT afford a 3rd gen, now I can, but it's still hard to swallow spending $35k (minimum) to $40k (my own personal ceiling) on a used truck. I've always wanted one.

Seems like 4th gens are overpopulating the lots, and the lease incentive for $269/mo is appealing if they weren't so ugly. 3rd gen seems to be holding it's value just fine, though I know people paid over $40-45k for new examples in good trims.

If we're bout to hit a recession I would be fine to wait 6-18 months to buy my dream truck. I guess what I'm asking is if I buy a low mile 3.5 gen now for $35k am I going to wish I waited?

 

if any of us had viable, actionable information on that, those skills pay far better than median wages, and that person likely wouldn't even be on a tacoma forum. they'd be on the "how to manage 5+ sprawling estates in other countries" forum.

i will say, used vehicle prices are trending downwards right now. during covid, new were impossible to buy, so used vehicles trended higher. now we're back to the situation of a glut of new vehicles, and moderate supply of used vehicles-- but many lots sitting on used vehicles likely have over-paid to stock their lots, so they can't accept a downward pricing trend, leading to seemingly 'randomly' skewed pricing on used vehicles. overall inventory-sold statistics, new and used, are being reported to going back to pre-covid levels overall. but the looming/threatening tariffs and general upheaval in regulations right now is leaving a lot of question marks up in the air for supply chains (which will in turn alter the final customer pricing) for new vehicles.

so given what we know about market instability, if new vehicles are viewed as an unstable market due to parts pricing spikes, it means that used prices will trend higher due to the perceptions of being a more reliable or consistent supply.

there's also the near-constant predictions of a global recession since 2009 that could wipe out the world economy.

if you've got a magic 8 ball, give it a shake. it can't be any less wrong than any of the other predictions.

 

I wish I had the money back on things I bought "just because I could afford it".

 

Good 2nd gens are good. May be the last buy and hold Tacoma.

A bird in hand...

 

what would you do with the money?

 

Keep the 2nd gen

Save it for a rainy day?

 

With the federal layoffs and tariffs being imposed, the economy is being subjected to some fierce headwinds. Keep the 2nd generation and save your cash for a possibly very rainy day.

 

Right now, I'd use it to pay for my leach field for my septic system.

If I didn't use it for that, I'd have it in a bank CD @4.55% (current rate at my CU)