Still think TITNC3: Return of the Iceberg was peak

YTD Red -2.83%
1YR Still green by a good margin.

 

My whole market short is up nicely

 

This market is ass.

 

Tomorrow we’ll find out if my one put was sold too soon or way too soon.

 

I don't see a full blown recession (not that they would call one if it defined itself anyway) and I think the tariff situation will work itself out towards the end of this year.

I think stocks were over valued much like the housing market still currently is.

 

Sadly housing isn’t going down 20%+ like stocks

 

Hopefully interest rates go back to 1.9 so I can get in on it too

 

Well the good news is that at least today is fine.

 

well, that's 9 more months of uncertainty, and only 2 more months of decline for the definition of a recession to be true.

 

I've talked about this before, either here or with the other degenerates.

The NBER (National Bureau of Economic....Research? I think that R is research) is the "governing" body that says "Yes" or "No" to being in a recession. They can say "NO we are not in a recession even though X Y and Z are true".

So, the "real" definition of a recession is when they say so. Any other time, no recession. Even if it quacks like a chicken, no recession until they say so.

 

Not necessarily, something could be worked out before then.

 

Queue no more recessions. After 2008 there's always gonna be that one thing that keeps it from qualifying as a true recession. And that's assuming anyone believes we really got out of the 2008 one completely

 

…..aaaand the rally sells off again

 

Even if the market drops hard or is downhill all year or more, there will still be a lot of rallies like that. It's been somewhere between up and steady for so long that a lot of people are out there itching and scratching at a chance to get their fix by buying in at the right low point. At this point there's even a lot of young guys that plain don't even know any different. The market has been up and to the left for the past decade and a half besides the covid period that's just a blip now

 

I don't like it.

 

Green Friday, red Monday?

 

buying the $FBTC dips...

 

Gotta go below $53 for it to be a dip for me

 

Okay boys…. Now what?