History tells me ... eh, no comment.

[/QUOTE]

It's the Time Decay aspect of it that has me off-balance a bit. When I buy an equity, I generally have a price target in mind. It may change, but there's no clock ticking in the sense of expiration, just opportunity cost.

I don't see this being a large component of my investing activity, but I can definitely see the appeal. I'm thinking about buying Puts on some holdings that may have some temporary downside risk in the next 2 quarters. Looking at you $RKLB.

 

Makes sense. I used to play options on biomedical/pharmas, they're super volatile so you buy a lot and sell a covered call, the premiums are pretty good pretty far out of the money. So, if it hits, mega donuts. If it doesn't, you still get a decent dividend. I just kind of fell off of caring about it and haven't been at it for a while.

Options can make you a lot of money, but the downside is you can lose it all. When a stock dives 7%, you lose 7%. When a stock dives 7%, that call goes to pretty much 0, and it's all gone (puts, similar).

 

Go take a look at AMZN. It survived the dot.com crash. Moral of this story? When NVDA tanks buy LOTS more.

 

Industries don't die. But boards/C-suites can kill a company with bad decisions in that same sector.

 

For every AMZN, there's a CSCO. They were the kings of the hill. The top dog. The fat enchilada.
And then boom.
I guess you could make a case that the ROC since the dotcombust has been somewhat in-line with the market, but only if you bought at the very bottom after the crash.
My wife held 83 shares when we married. I just sold them this year. Barely back to where they were 25 years ago.

 

This is NVDA today, and was blockbuster in its day (just to draw a similarity).

But also look at Ticketmaster (parent LYV), they are a dated model but are still around. Back in the 80s, you would have a ticketmaster in your home town. You were going on a trip to, let's say, Boston for a week. You would coordinate with your local ticket master, who would then handle with the Boston ticketmaster, for events and schedules. This was pre-internet era, mind you. Now with the internet era, they exist only because of their own forceful existence. But they still exist, whereas Blockbuster is whatever.

So it really kind of depends on board and sway, since the board at Blockbuster could have been smart, but then weren't. The board at Ticketmaster/Livenation could have been smart, and then were.

NVDA board can be smart - let's see what happens

 

Yeah, I get real puckered when I think about possible similarities between CSCO and NVDA.
Back then, all my excess money went into the house and ramping up for married life, etc. CSCO crashing wasn't the end. Though I did work at Qwest at the time, and *almost* bought F&F shares of KPNQwest when it was offered. (Eesh)
Today, $NVDA is so overweighted, it feels way, WAY bigger than CSCO in 2000. That Sofi SP500 ETF I posted earlier... it's 13.5% of holdings, FFS.

But I'm basically all-in on AI/Datacenters and Space. And I'm not going anywhere.

 

For those of you worried about Nvidia. Go read up on Jensen Huang. As long as he's at the helm, they will never become a Cisco.

 

May 2020